If the run off is between Le Pen and a centrist, the centrist wins. If the run off is between Le Pen and Melenchon, or similar, Le Pen wins. (View Post)

LR and the Macronists and independent right and centre maybe reach 230 or so. My guess is a PM from that grouping would at least get some part of the left to abstain on a confidence vote, but they wo… (View Post)

That age profile is by no means as bad for the right as seemed likely two months ago. (View Post)

The French election is in reality, a shift to both Right and Left. Macron has not done as badly as seemed likely, but he’s still in a worse position than a month ago. (View Post)

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/07/2024-french-election-results-chart-and-map-of-second-round-winners_6676976_8.html This is a good running total from Le Monde. (View Post)