In fact, if Hall wins 32/33% that matches the Conservative vote share in 2019. That is substantially outperforming the Conservatives nationally. (View Post)

An ongoing swing to the Conservatives, among London’s Indian voters. My guess is the Conservatives will regain wards like Northwick Park, Preston, Barnhill, and the remain seats in Queensbury, in 202… (View Post)

Khan is more likely to win by about 14-15% than 22%. (View Post)

It was one sixth of the total, but they chose areas where UKIP did well. Even in Sunderland, they did not run the Conservatives close (but likely cost them one seat). (View Post)

Yes. I think it shows that their vote share in the polls does not exist on the ground. They can win 15% or so, in their best areas, but not across the board. (View Post)