The combined right wing vote share was 51% in 2015, and 47% in 2019. Given a period of Labour unpopularity, and those vote shares could re-emerge. Electorates are (as we see) highly volatile now. (View Post)

Yougov MRP has Labour 43%, Con 25%, Lib Dem 11%, Reform 10%. (View Post)

The Conservatives don't want to follow the US Republican example of turning politics into a pissing contest. But, actions have to match words. You can't offer your supporters right wing wor… (View Post)

At least it's better than Find Out Now. Why do Yougov's MRP polls generally imply a lower Labour lead than standard voting intention polls (I guess this must be something like a 16% lead). (View Post)

The 9% vote share in the 2019 Euros is the Conservative floor. If they fell back that far, that would probably put Reform in the high twenties. Labour would still be well ahead, but Reform would win … (View Post)