Averaging the last 21 polls (including MRP) gives: Labour 38.9% Conservative 21.2% Reform 16.0% Lib Dem 11.1%. The Conservatives are down about 2% on the start of the campaign, Labour down about 5%, … (View Post)

I think that Peter Kellner's prediction will be in more or less the right place: Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats Liberal Democrats: 1… (View Post)

If the Tories win 100-149, and hold Harrow East, then I make a profit of £137.50. (View Post)

It's hard to see how the Lib Dems finish ahead of the Conservatives on half the vote share. Averaging 12 eve of polls (and excluding the MRP's) we get Labour 38.8% Conservative 21.0%, Refor… (View Post)

Nick went from supporting Corbyn in 2017/19 to supporting Nigel today. (View Post)