“But, it’s going to cost you …” (View Post)

TBF, in most seats where Reform seriously threaten Labour, the Greens do not feature. Labour already has the left-leaning vote in the Red Wall. What I expect is a lot of sorting. The Greens do well i… (View Post)

I'm quite sure the Conservative vote share would hold up a lot better if a by-election were in, say, Hendon, or Welwyn Hatfield. There, the Conservatives can point to the fact that they are the … (View Post)

The reaction to Democracy Volunteers has been revealing. Tower Hamlets revealed the folly, a few years ago, of just treating these practises as "a cultural matter." (View Post)

In general, I’d say that almost any Labour seat which starts with a right wing vote of 35%+, from 2024, is likely going to Reform, in a by election. Under 35%, and it’s likely to be held, or won by a… (View Post)