I'm quite sure the Conservative vote share would hold up a lot better if a by-election were in, say, Hendon, or Welwyn Hatfield. There, the Conservatives can point to the fact that they are the … (View Post)

The reaction to Democracy Volunteers has been revealing. Tower Hamlets revealed the folly, a few years ago, of just treating these practises as "a cultural matter." (View Post)

In general, I’d say that almost any Labour seat which starts with a right wing vote of 35%+, from 2024, is likely going to Reform, in a by election. Under 35%, and it’s likely to be held, or won by a… (View Post)

Most people look for a magic pill. Burnham is that magic pill. (View Post)

Good header. Three further points. 1. Left wing voters will vote for the best candidate to stop Reform. Conservative voters will switch completely behind Reform, in seats the Conservatives cannot win… (View Post)