IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results. That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however. (View Post)

I went to Casino in October. It’s quite a sad town. It’s a place of pilgrimage to Poles, Germans, Americans, New Zealanders, and Indians. But, the locals just want to forget about the battle that des… (View Post)

I expect that Labour will be down, too. There's still ground for them to lose in Durham, Lancashire, and the Midlands. (View Post)

Nothing suggests to me that the UK is somehow insulated from the rise of populist right wing parties, in a way that other Western democracies are not. The main bar to any new party is the FPTP system… (View Post)

I’m sceptical that “nice Britain/centrist dads” will all unite to keep out Reform. It seems to me that Reform are getting support from (a) people unhappy about mega-immigration (b) voters who want to… (View Post)