I expect that Labour will be down, too. There's still ground for them to lose in Durham, Lancashire, and the Midlands. (View Post)

Nothing suggests to me that the UK is somehow insulated from the rise of populist right wing parties, in a way that other Western democracies are not. The main bar to any new party is the FPTP system… (View Post)

I’m sceptical that “nice Britain/centrist dads” will all unite to keep out Reform. It seems to me that Reform are getting support from (a) people unhappy about mega-immigration (b) voters who want to… (View Post)

Yes. I think it is profoundly improbable that compliance with the ICJ ruling on DG would have the slightest bearing on the situation in Ukraine. (View Post)

Re Farage v Starmer, at this point, I’d expect Starmer to win. In fact, I’d expect a1924 - type result. A big win for Labour, with Reform establishing dominance on the Right, and winning heavily in S… (View Post)