Investment banks conducted exit polls that were not Jon Curtice standard. The point of his exit polls is to ask tens of thousands how they voted, and then compare it to last time. (View Post)

Despite my recent bitter comments, the order would be: 1. Conservative (through gritted teeth) 2. UUP 3. Reform 4. Labour 5. DUP 6. SDLP 7. LIB DEM 8. APNI 9. Plaid 10. SNP 11. Green 12. WPGB 13. Sin… (View Post)

Roughly as it is now, I think, unless Reform are really charging ahead in places like East Anglia, the Thames Estuary, Durham, and the Conservatives are faring better in Blue Wall seats. Hertsmere is… (View Post)

I see the Conservatives held Mottingham, with a swing to them, compared to 2022, and five times the votes Reform got. An indicator that Reform is overstated in the polling? (View Post)

Sure. For all the talk of "British exceptionalism" on this thread, the UK is not a uniquely left-wing, pro-immigration, society. Trends that apply in other Western democracies will apply he… (View Post)