I would not put Reform’s chances higher than 10-15%, in this seat. It would require a very divided left wing vote. If the Greens do beat Labour, that is very bad news for the latter. (View Post)

I think that Reform would be dire, in government. But, nothing suggests to me that they represent an existential threat to democracy. (View Post)

Hamas are following the classic tactics of anti-colonial insurgency movements, in carrying out atrocities, in order to provoke an even harsher reaction from the colonial power. That leads to the colo… (View Post)

On the basis that events take a few days to filter through to polling, that is Trump's antics, hurting right wing parties generally. MIC show right wing support dropping from 50 to 48%, F O N ha… (View Post)

You can feel the cold and wet from that painting. (View Post)