Reform probably have done well enough to win a London List seat (they seem to be winning about 7% at constituency level). That would be their sole win. (View Post)

Labour’s NEV was 21% in 2009, but they avoided a wipe out. (View Post)

Once a party concedes defeat (which West Mids Labour seemed to do), one believes them. (View Post)

Havering and Redbridge is more proof Reform amount to little. (View Post)

In fact, if Hall wins 32/33% that matches the Conservative vote share in 2019. That is substantially outperforming the Conservatives nationally. (View Post)