It's been discussed that it takes around 2 weeks for a lock down to feed through into reduced cases and then deaths, hence certain parts of Italy hopefully being in the process of peaking. In th… (View Post)

I've been very concerned by the virus growth since mid January, but I fear that wider panic is setting in too early and too suddenly. Governments across Europe seem to be closing down their econ… (View Post)

Looking at this outbreak from a maths background, two concepts spring to mind: 1) exponential growth, which had been well discussed; and 2) catastrophe theory, which has been less so. Catastrophe the… (View Post)

Do the Lib Dems need to rush to appoint a new leader? Let Ed Davey and Baroness Sal Brinton run as interim leaders until after the next local elections and then have a proper leadership contest in ad… (View Post)

I would suggest people remember the MRP is a model based on polling data, not constituency level polling, not an exit poll and certainly not the result. Its effectiveness is giving a better estimate … (View Post)