Interestingly, the projections are based on our of date birth rate data, so the 'births minus deaths' may in fact go negative over the period when projections are updated later in the year.… (View Post)

I predict there will be a whole lot of people reflecting that it was 'obvious' Labour would get a significant majority after such a long period of 10-30 point polling leads, given a tired a… (View Post)

The Tories have not had a single under 10% polling deficit since Truss and Kwarteng blew things up. That's quite an impressively long stretch when you consider the number of polling companies, o… (View Post)

Talking of 'free money' bets, isn't Biden as the Democrat nominee at 1.25 a good bet? He can comfortably win primaries where he's not on the ballot, and the actuarial risk of less… (View Post)

The way I see this year is the Tories had up to 10 months to turn around the polls meaningfully (e.g. to sub 10% leads) to have a chance of a respectable performance. The first month of the year it l… (View Post)