I think you've used the electoral calculus default setting, and not the universal swing option. (View Post)

Yes I think it's fair enough. There's different types of urgent work. Advisors may consider preparation for a Sunday morning interview important. Or for a conference speech. Or dealing with… (View Post)

Now I know universal swing is derided as being overly simplistic for such a large change, and both Baxter and the MRPs suggest a bigger swing than UNS would, but it's worth noting 39% Labour 24%… (View Post)

I don't think we should fear RN winning a majority and/or the French Presidency, even for those of us that are liberals that oppose Le Pen's policies. Democracy is about countries trying ou… (View Post)

I like how Tory leadership hopefuls can't fully commit to the idea, not because Sunak may stay in post, but because no one is quite certain they'll retain their own seat. (View Post)