Looking at the polling averages (both RCP and 538), Trump has recovered from his lows of June/July, but hasn't risen above where he was earlier in the year. Likewise, Biden's vote had remai… (View Post)

A point to consider when comparing current cases between countries is the amount of testing varies massively. While the UK was slow off the mark on this, total testing is now up at 223 per 1,000 popu… (View Post)

A bit of a misunderstanding of PMIs here. Under 50 indicates contraction relative to the previous month, so increasing from say 20 to 47 just means the rate of contraction has slowed, rather than an … (View Post)

The government's current approach lacks a clear message. It favours prescriptive rules ('6 people') that sound arbitrary over principles people can understand and apply. Surely we need… (View Post)

On reflection last night's press conference was a terrible mistake for Johnson personally. Before that point, the story was about a government advisor. As is typical with similar stories, the go… (View Post)