Labour share of vote only up 1.4%. Lib Dem share of vote only up 0.5%. Very interesting result. (View Post)

The Tories will conclude they need to be more like Reform and more right wing. I don't think they will piece together a majority in one term. I think their direction of travel will help the Lib … (View Post)

It's too early to say it's a polling miss. It's an Electoral Calculus Baxter seat prediction miss. The MRPs seem reasonably good to me given the size of the change involved. (View Post)

Remember that the exit poll has historically accurate in aggregate, and not in specifics for each seat. It can't pick up constituency level idiosyncrasies. That probably means there are betting … (View Post)

The exit poll is pretty similar to the 2001 result - Labour 410 vs 419 - Tories 131 vs 166 - Lib Dems 53 vs 52 (View Post)