On the US election, too many people think we are living through a re-run of 2016, when the evidence suggests the election dynamics are completely different. Rather than argue with those who cherry pi… (View Post)

What are the key factors to consider in the US election betting at this point? 1) The current state of play: both RCP and 538 have Biden now c.8 points ahead. He may be slightly less far ahead in the… (View Post)

40 days until the US election and Biden remains 7 points ahead in the national poll averages. It makes me wonder, when is most early voting (in person or by mail) expected to happen this year? And ho… (View Post)

The latest ONS infection survey estimated 6k positive tests a day the week to 10 September The previous ONS infection survey estimated 3.2k positive tests a day the week to 3 September That is the mo… (View Post)

Looking at the polling averages (both RCP and 538), Trump has recovered from his lows of June/July, but hasn't risen above where he was earlier in the year. Likewise, Biden's vote had remai… (View Post)