I find definitive statements like that about how national vote share will be reflected in electoral college votes incredibly irritating. It would certainly not be the case of Trump puts on a load of … (View Post)

An interesting dynamic is the rise of 'no religion'. Since the 2011 census: Muslim: + 1.6% No religion: +12.0% So the fastest growing change is towards secularism, with a smaller growth in … (View Post)

Interestingly, the projections are based on our of date birth rate data, so the 'births minus deaths' may in fact go negative over the period when projections are updated later in the year.… (View Post)

I predict there will be a whole lot of people reflecting that it was 'obvious' Labour would get a significant majority after such a long period of 10-30 point polling leads, given a tired a… (View Post)

The Tories have not had a single under 10% polling deficit since Truss and Kwarteng blew things up. That's quite an impressively long stretch when you consider the number of polling companies, o… (View Post)