No sign of convergence between pollsters. Exit poll will be fascinating. The uncertainty now is just as to whether the Tories get a very bad result, or a calamitous result where they fall behind anot… (View Post)

While I fully agree with the bolded part, I'm not sure it's possible in the long-run because there is a significant part of the electorate that is socially illiberal. Unless Labour moves in… (View Post)

A debate with those four - with the leaders of each - would be far more interesting. Two-way debates are too linear back and forth. More people offers the chance for a more dynamic debate, but seven … (View Post)

It's a strange election. Without MRPs it's hard to say how votes will turn into seats with such huge swings - any 'uniform' assumption will be very wrong. The exit poll will be fa… (View Post)

No chance of Tories holding there. 3,000 majority. It will become part of the Lib Dem stronghold in the south west of London (and into quasi-London Surrey seats like Esher). The fact Cameron is wasti… (View Post)