It's an interesting election because: - Some 'traditional pollsters' will be wrong in terms of percentages. Tories towards mid 20s or in the teens fighting Reform. Others may be right,… (View Post)

I think you've used the electoral calculus default setting, and not the universal swing option. (View Post)

Yes I think it's fair enough. There's different types of urgent work. Advisors may consider preparation for a Sunday morning interview important. Or for a conference speech. Or dealing with… (View Post)

Now I know universal swing is derided as being overly simplistic for such a large change, and both Baxter and the MRPs suggest a bigger swing than UNS would, but it's worth noting 39% Labour 24%… (View Post)

I don't think we should fear RN winning a majority and/or the French Presidency, even for those of us that are liberals that oppose Le Pen's policies. Democracy is about countries trying ou… (View Post)