The government's fatal flaw - seen across much of Europe - has been propagating for too long the message that things could return to normal with minimal change to behaviour. "Eat out in restaura… (View Post)

Thoughts on the latest ONS infection survey: +ve: there's some evidence the incidence rate growth is starting to slow, particularly amongst young people and certain worse-hit regions like the North E… (View Post)

On the US election, too many people think we are living through a re-run of 2016, when the evidence suggests the election dynamics are completely different. Rather than argue with those who cherry pi… (View Post)

What are the key factors to consider in the US election betting at this point? 1) The current state of play: both RCP and 538 have Biden now c.8 points ahead. He may be slightly less far ahead in the… (View Post)

40 days until the US election and Biden remains 7 points ahead in the national poll averages. It makes me wonder, when is most early voting (in person or by mail) expected to happen this year? And ho… (View Post)