Listening to people discuss the election today who are more on the right, there is a risk they see the lower Labour vote share and split vote on the right as meaning they have an easy path back to go… (View Post)

Labour share of vote only up 1.4%. Lib Dem share of vote only up 0.5%. Very interesting result. (View Post)

The Tories will conclude they need to be more like Reform and more right wing. I don't think they will piece together a majority in one term. I think their direction of travel will help the Lib … (View Post)

It's too early to say it's a polling miss. It's an Electoral Calculus Baxter seat prediction miss. The MRPs seem reasonably good to me given the size of the change involved. (View Post)

Remember that the exit poll has historically accurate in aggregate, and not in specifics for each seat. It can't pick up constituency level idiosyncrasies. That probably means there are betting … (View Post)