Yes, the JHKersting 'Forecast Manipulator' gives Trump a 1.2% chance of winning when Biden wins NC, and that seems about right. https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/manipulator.html (View Post)

If anyone in the Trump campaign would have described North Carolina as 'super-safe' at any point in the last few weeks, or even few months, then I'd like them to get in touch with me for some sidebet… (View Post)

Relatedly, I wish more people were familiar with the concept of Circles of Competence. Knowledge, skill, or expertise in one area is a very weak predictor of knowledge, skill, or expertise in another… (View Post)

Personally I think we risk overthinking the market. The simplest answer is just that most punters aren't that well versed in the numbers and so on, and are being overly affected by 2016. That's my co… (View Post)

This article (from the day I wrote mine, I now genuinely can't remember if I read it before doing mine) from 538 goes into good detail. The key section (at least as far as my article goes, the whole … (View Post)