I agree with a lot of this, though I personally think the biggest edge over the markets isn't so much deeper analysis of the polls/numbers but a broadly dispassionate analysis of them. People are jus… (View Post)

I love (well, hate) the need to frame everything as 'One side says this, but another side says this'. "Critics say" that costs will be huge? No. It's a fact that costs will be huge. That do… (View Post)

I can't find the original, but there's a great quote from someone about LTCM or maybe the 2008 crash along the lines of "Some smart people convinced themselves they'd discovered magic, but reall… (View Post)

A random thought: If this poll is wrong and Labour are actually a bit ahead and go on to win then the legacy of this poll will be to create a false narrative that Labour clawed it back in the local c… (View Post)

Looks like we are finally getting a poll of Hartlepool. Going to be very interesting to see how close it is to the MRP projection from a bunch of Red Wall seats. I suspect there will be a Tory lead. … (View Post)