100%. The problem with early voting numbers is we don't have anything else to fixate on. Not unlike exit polls, we find it hard not to give them more credence than they deserve as a result. (View Post)

True, I was thinking about predictions for size of majority. Or maybe we could set up a Good Judgement Project style thing with %s and brier scores. For the record, my prediction was a majority of 60… (View Post)

I really feel that note is a great example of unfair political mythology, it's taken on a life of it's own which is completely misleading. Liam Byrne didn't write "There is no money left", … (View Post)

By the time the Dems had passed a beefy Voting Rights Act, a legal challenge had been brought, the SCOTUS had heard the case, and SCOTUS had gutted it in a ruling, isn't there a significant risk the … (View Post)

Very risky, and imho foolish. Republicans from Trump down are finding they've shrunk their base and put off Ind/swing voters. They need to get Lean Rs to stick with the party they are wavering on, no… (View Post)