Good shout. If she wins (or maybe an e/w bet on her does) then your return is going to be at least as good as betting on her to win SPotY, which is another step beyond that. (View Post)

Maybe, though there is a risk with that strategy that it is too backwards looking. If Starmer just shrugs it off and talks about what he would do differently on other issues I can imagine the governm… (View Post)

So I half agree with you, in that I agree the Tories are likely to win another majority and their position is strong. Indeed, I wrote an article making exactly that point (link below to massage my eg… (View Post)

I don't think you have to think anything has changed in terms of votes -> seats since the last election. The Conservatives won by 1% of the vote and lost fairly narrowly in terms of seats. They cu… (View Post)

There's a fun betting market to be had on 'Number of Biden/Trump on the 2024 tickets'. Options are 0, 1, 2, and More than 2 (if you think Trump will run with another Trump as VP). (View Post)