Leaving aside the current polls, I strongly suspect that Altrincham and Sale West will go red next election unless the Tories win nationally by at least double digits. Demographically it's exactly th… (View Post)

My issue with that analysis is the Democrats also almost lost New Jersey. Totally different candidates, different campaign, same slump for the Dems. I don't think the problem in Virginia was abour Vi… (View Post)

Just huge value on him staying in post. The bar for Tory MPs to turn on a sitting PM with this kind of majority and any poll lead at all is vast. (View Post)

That's like saying that Ohio is a reliable bellweather since it has voted for the President all but 3 times since 1896. But in the last 20 years it has trended Republican to the point that a Democrat… (View Post)

My £38.70 of profit in my Smarket accounts says 'Hell Yeah!' (View Post)