Quincel

It means that there is more uncertainty to this forecast than others (for example, I felt very confident on my Keir Starmer to fight the next election bets) so it makes sense to bet less than normal.… (View Post)

I think it's fair to say her laugh is pretty ambiguous. I hear it as you do, but I totally see how it could sound like she is laughing about the party happening as more of a wink wink in-joke. (View Post)

I have sympathy with the view that this goes too far beyond what can be proven, but if I were defending this leaflet to the regulator I'd argue that the primary message wasn't literal about a specifi… (View Post)

I really do think Zemmour has an immensely tough route to victory. The run-off is doable, but there is no evidence so far he could cobble together anything near 50%+1 in a the final round. Obviously … (View Post)

There are two symmetrical takes floating around today, both looking at the raw votes of Lab/Con and concluding that they both did poorly. Weirdly neither take ever includes the other side's raw vote … (View Post)