Today's Survation MRP was done from 15 June to 1 July. So if there is a late swingback to Con, it will miss most of it. Also note the previous Survation MRP was done from 15 to 27 June. Today�… (View Post)

Did anyone see Curtice on Newsnight last night? BBC use him as a numbers man. But seems to me he is just as good as a political commentator - ie analysing why the numbers move as they do. Made a very… (View Post)

Peter Kellner prediction in Sunday Times: • Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 p… (View Post)

Well we'll have to see what happens. But in crude terms a lot of people hate the Tories and just think that new Labour is going to be much nicer to them - which basically means give them some mo… (View Post)

Agreed. It's broadly two things: 1) What you said. 2) Economic situation caused by Covid / Ukraine / demographics which has led to incumbents everywhere being in big trouble - eg Trudeau about t… (View Post)