MikeL

Today's Survation MRP was done from 15 June to 1 July. So if there is a late swingback to Con, it will miss most of it. Also note the previous Survation MRP was done from 15 to 27 June. Today's Surva… (View Post)

Did anyone see Curtice on Newsnight last night? BBC use him as a numbers man. But seems to me he is just as good as a political commentator - ie analysing why the numbers move as they do. Made a very… (View Post)

Peter Kellner prediction in Sunday Times: • Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 p… (View Post)

Well we'll have to see what happens. But in crude terms a lot of people hate the Tories and just think that new Labour is going to be much nicer to them - which basically means give them some more mo… (View Post)

Agreed. It's broadly two things: 1) What you said. 2) Economic situation caused by Covid / Ukraine / demographics which has led to incumbents everywhere being in big trouble - eg Trudeau about to tak… (View Post)