We all miss Mike. I'm sure he'd have included a graph of how the odds for London Mayor had swung about over the last 36 hours in the thread header. (View Post)

The interesting question to me is whether Starmer and Labour realise it? If a bad result for Khan in London leads to major panic by Starmer and Labour, it could still influence the GE outcome. (View Post)

Yes. At this stage you can only make a probabilistic forecast, but the outcome will be categorical. So you have to be grown-up about judging whether the forecast was reasonable or not. (View Post)

Khan was only 4.7pp ahead in the first-round in 2021. There's not much scope for him to win with a reduced majority. (View Post)

Losing the London Mayoralty doesn't seem like a great springboard to becoming Labour leader. (View Post)