Yes. At this stage you can only make a probabilistic forecast, but the outcome will be categorical. So you have to be grown-up about judging whether the forecast was reasonable or not. (View Post)

Khan was only 4.7pp ahead in the first-round in 2021. There's not much scope for him to win with a reduced majority. (View Post)

Losing the London Mayoralty doesn't seem like a great springboard to becoming Labour leader. (View Post)

This is all really rather unfair, substituting your caricature for actually spending a couple of minutes to find out what they actually do say. A very brief look at the Wikipedia page, for example, g… (View Post)

Voting is the only message that politicians really listen to, because it's the one that threatens their job. So if the international issue is important to you, and the vote for the local council… (View Post)