Most likely scenario for Labour IMO is a 5-6% swing ending up 2% behind like in 2017 or level pegging. I can see Labour getting anywhehere between 260-300 seats although I'm still cautious. Voter dis… (View Post)

France, Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll: Presidential run-off election Macron (EC-RE): 57.5% (+1) Le Pen (RN-ID): 42.5% (-1) (+/- vs. 18-20 April 2022) Fieldwork: 21 April 2022 Sample size: 1,600 I expect Ma… (View Post)

Very good poll for the CDU in Schleswig Holstein (8th May): https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1517009250190606336 Very popular CDU ministerpräsident here. Sonntagsfrage zur Landtagswahl in Schl… (View Post)

Thurrock, Colchester and Rochford and Southend E are probably the only seats Labour can potentially win in Essex and can only win all three if they get a majority. (View Post)

I can't see Labour winning any north Kent seats any time soon although could still win South Thanet and Dover if they get an overall majority. I'm more cautiously optimistic about the former than the… (View Post)