I can see it being Pence vs Harris in 2024 and Pence may have a good chance in that scenario as without the backdrop of the pandemic Harris may well annoy voters across the spectrum like Clinton did.… (View Post)

Yes, Biden only has a 47% chance of winning the electoral college if he's 3% ahead but apparently has a 90%+ chance if he's 6% ahead. Psychologically it's still feels hard to see Biden losing the ele… (View Post)

I'm sticking resolutely to my prediction that Biden will win the electoral college by 335-203 but still see Trump stubbornly between 44-46%. I think Trump will carry Texas by about 3/4%, Iowa, Ohio a… (View Post)

I can see a shy Trump vote in Florida e.g. Latinos in Palm Beach etc even though I still consider Biden an ultra marginal favourite in Florida overall but I don't buy the idea of lots of shy Trump vo… (View Post)

On balance I expect Biden to win the popular vote by 6% and win 334/5 electoral college votes which is more or less the same as my prediction 2 months or so ago. Not sure about ME-2. I think Florida … (View Post)