I agree with the analysis. I think the Tories will win both but I can see the Lib Dems coming a closeish 2nd in N Shropshire (within 10-15%) so not necessarily more than 50-60% probability altogether… (View Post)

I'm afraid I can't see how the Tories lose this unless Labour wins with something like 35-40% with a massive reform/tory vote split. I can see the Tories dipping below 50% but I can't see them losing… (View Post)

I don't think the Lib dems will win but I easily see a Witney type result. That said even if the LDs win the Tories will sort of be able to spin it away due to local issues etc. The more I think abou… (View Post)

Given that Macron exceeded the polls albeit on a low turnout in the run off in 2017, I would predict Macron beating Zemmour by 60-40 in the run off on a slightly lower turnout than last time as most … (View Post)

Yes that's mainly fair. Problem I have is that people have changed the goalposts over time. I don't have an issue in saying that Corbyn could have done better on the issue between 2015-18 but the dis… (View Post)