The last time the lib Dems won a by election from 3rd place was Leicester South in 2004. They also nearly won Bromley and Chislehurst from 3rd in 2006. I was initially very dubious based on reasons s… (View Post)

I think the Lib Dems will squeak it. The most the lib dems can win it by is about 10%. I think unlike Chesham and Amersham which the LDs could feasibly hold at the next election, this by election wil… (View Post)

And of course Redcar, Blackpool S and Darlington aren't even technically red wall seats as the former went LD in 2010 and the latter two were both Tory under Thatcher. (View Post)

I think if there's another 2019 type result then this seat would be likely to fall to the Tories along with neighbouring Hemsworth and possibly a few others. Although if there's at least a small swin… (View Post)

I can only think of the Glenrothes by election in 2008 where Labour slightly increased both their absolute vote and share (although their majority was cut by the SNP) but this is probably isn't what … (View Post)