Alberta is the only part of Canada I've been to (in 2015) and I would say some of these comparisons are simplistic also given that Alberta elected an NDP provincial government in 2015 even while vote… (View Post)

I think Macron will narrowly win against Pécresse in the 2nd round although she is still the value bet. It's also remarkable that Macron is polling the exact same 24% that he got in the first round l… (View Post)

I'm quite careful about predicting the LDs likely performance at the next election although I think their long term prospects in large parts of South of England look very good indeed. I would be surp… (View Post)

Shouldn't people just leave trans people alone? As their rights are covered under the equality act. Whatever people think of debates on 'gender', calling trans people predators as Rowling and Duffiel… (View Post)

Given the political volatility over the past two years, I'm not confident of anything. On balance probably a value bet as it's hard to see how January will be much worse than December for the Tories. (View Post)