I've been on the opinion that the Tories are increasingly likely to lose their majority at the next election for at the last couple of months (before partygate) as Starmer only has to gain 40 seats f… (View Post)

Looks like an easy Labour hold to me by up to 20% unless the Tories can reestablish a national poll lead of up to 10%. Some Tory strength at a local level but the 2019 result shows that the Tory vote… (View Post)

I think Macron would win easily against Melenchon but it would still be better for democracy (in terms of turnout etc) than a runoff with Le Pen or especially Zemmour. I'm not sure about how far apar… (View Post)

Issue with Blair for me is more the 2005-07 period and his behaviour since leaving office. If he'd stood down in 2005 I think he'd have a better legacy despite Iraq. (View Post)

I honestly do not know what will happen at the next election TBH. I would say anything between Labour getting 300 seats and an exact rerun of 2019 is entirely plausible. It depends on who the Tories … (View Post)