Don't see a particular issue with what Russua was doing in Syria at least in terms of lesser evilism. That stands even if they were doing the right thing for the wrong reasons. (View Post)

Yes, that does look value. It is still plausible he scrapes into the final round on as little as 16% with Pecresse/Le Pen/Zemmour split evenly if Jadot and Roussel voters also vote strategically at t… (View Post)

Yes, most likely scenario is Le Pen getting into the run off and then Macron winning the runoff by a margin of 15-20%. I have been shocked at how Pecresse's campaign has fallen apart. Melenchon has m… (View Post)

The West Midlands looks pretty solid for the Tories now overall I would say (at least compared to 2005 and outside of Birmingham and Coventry proper) with the exception of a handful marginal/semi mar… (View Post)

Yes given the electoral volatility since 2020 I wouldn't underestimate Johnson completely TBH even though I do believe the Tories are now in deep trouble in the North of England. It would be foolish … (View Post)