Remember that the CDU candidate last time was Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer who was extremely popular in 2017 (as well as obviously being a big national figure in the CDU). She was so popular in that th… (View Post)

There are various places the Tories could do well or even make gains (Scotland, the Midlands etc) . Sunderland I very much doubt though, Labour had a strong gain from UKIP there 3 weeks ago. I think … (View Post)

It's still just about possible that Melenchon could squeeze on to the runoff on only 16-17% but it's a very narrow window and the implosion of Pecresse and Zemmour appear to have solidified Le Pen at… (View Post)

I don't know what will happen in London TBH, a funny result and where I think the value betting lies would be Tories holding Wandsworth due to local issues such as low council tax but Labour gaining … (View Post)

They were p*ss poor until Autumn last year. Since then they've been mixed. The Northumberland result wasn't great for Labour (even if the Labour drop can partly be explained by the Greens and LDs sta… (View Post)