I struggle to see how Melenchon gets more than 17% in the first round although I agree he's still just about a value bet to make the run off. It's surely to late for Zemmour to recover though with a … (View Post)

That's interesting. Today is probably the first day I seriously thought Le Pen could win. 17% is a also a high for Melenchon (although he got 19.6% in 2017) but him getting into the 2nd round seems a… (View Post)

I predict something like Con 39% Lab 36%. My prediction a few weeks ago was basically that we could maybe see one or two Tory leads between now and the locals but not necessarily any more than that. … (View Post)

I agree but there is only a substantial residual LD vote (above 10%) in Bowie's seat and Gordon. I expect a major Con-LD shift in Edinburgh in May but not so much elsewhere. The trend is still overal… (View Post)

49.7% of DUP voters are giving the UUP their 2nd preference but only 17% of UUP voters are giving the DUP their 2nd preference: https://twitter.com/dmcbfs/status/1510876311149023232 We could see the … (View Post)