Quite feasibly. I am surprised by his unfavourables. But it seems to come down to “economy, stupid”, which despite showing a puissance that Europe would kill for, doesn’t “feel” strong. There’s a dis… (View Post)

The other point I’d add is that I’m a moderate optimist on the British economy. I genuinely believe that a Labour victory next year will change the narrative, in part because it will look like a very… (View Post)

I agree with the general idea that 5% is the new norm. However there is risk on both sides. There’s a small but significant (~20%?) probability that they need to climb from here, but there’s also a d… (View Post)

These things are relative. (View Post)

Increasingly looks likely that the populist Winston Peters / NZ First will hold the balance of power in NZ’s election on Saturday. The right bloc (National, Act) look to have faltered this week, whil… (View Post)