On @rcs1000 's oft-repeated suggestion that there will be a polling failure in the US this year (by 3-4% consistently in one direction or the other), but that the direction of it is unclear at the mo… (View Post)

Not to mention "Half a million deaths if we don't do something" (We do the something and deaths are enormously reduced). People spring up shouting "See - no half-million deaths." … (View Post)

Here's a chart modified to be compatible with yours and Gupta's one-in-ten-thousand IFR theory. Looks like you're right. If you add a sharpie at the right point and erase the stuff afterwards, the lo… (View Post)

"Have you got someone in your household who's vulnerable? Tough shit, you're out of work unless you risk their life. Because someone's read something somewhere that agrees with what they want to… (View Post)

Well, yes - that's sort of the key thing behind the drive for PR. (View Post)