politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks: How the Eurosceptics are destroying the Co

Innocent_Abroad said:

Is JC the son of a millionaire? Has he covered up for paedos (more than any other politician?) Is there a correlation between political competence and academic success? You all know I am no fan of his, I've been too close to him for that - but let's stick to the facts.

Labour's problem isn't JC, it's the oppositionist thinking of his fan club. That includes Nick Palmer (and indeed my daughter) both of whom I had thought had far more sense.

His father owned a million pound house, like Miliband Sr. That suggests he had a few quid.

He was told what was happening in Islington by the persistent Ms Davies in 1993. He believed she was motivated by homophobia and did nothing. True, there are politicians on all sides who have a nasty story on this, but he's about the last active one.

No - Baldwin springs to mind - but there is a correlation between stupidity and political failure.

I agree his fan club are also a problem, but Corbyn is certainly a major problem in and of himself. If Clive Lewis or even Emily Thornberry were the leader, I would be much less concerned, and their views are little different from Corbyn's.

Next Labour leader Emily Thornberry?

ydoethur said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Is JC the son of a millionaire? Has he covered up for paedos (more than any other politician?) Is there a correlation between political competence and academic success? You all know I am no fan of his, I've been too close to him for that - but let's stick to the facts.

Labour's problem isn't JC, it's the oppositionist thinking of his fan club. That includes Nick Palmer (and indeed my daughter) both of whom I had thought had far more sense.

His father owned a million pound house, like Miliband Sr. That suggests he had a few quid.

He was told what was happening in Islington by the persistent Ms Davies in 1993. He believed she was motivated by homophobia and did nothing. True, there are politicians on all sides who have a nasty story on this, but he's about the last active one.

No - Baldwin springs to mind - but there is a correlation between stupidity and political failure.

I agree his fan club are also a problem, but Corbyn is certainly a major problem in and of himself. If Clive Lewis or even Emily Thornberry were the leader, I would be much less concerned, and their views are little different from Corbyn's.

UPDATE: Several dead and wounded following explosion at Brussels Airport, Belgian Federal Police spokesman says: NBC News - @BreakingNews

Weird pix, guy walking by as if nothing is wrong

Brussels airport now.. #Zaventem #BrusselsAirport #brusselsattack #belgium https://t.co/J4Jk6rCpaU

On topic although a Leaver I find it very hard to disagree with Alastair. Not banging on about Europe worked very well in the first half of Cameron's leadership and the more he has the more problems the Tory party faces.

I am now genuinely torn. I think that the EU will integrate further. It has to to make the EZ work. As it does so EU policy and the machinery of governance will increasingly focus on the needs of the EZ to the detriment of non EZ members like ourselves. We face an increasingly unattractive trade off of accepting laws that are not designed for our needs, whilst paying more for the privilege in exchange for less and less influence. It makes much more sense to take a step away without running away altogether by becoming a member of the EEA and recognising our "special status" in this way. I think it is inevitable that this will happen at some point even if it does not happen in this referendum.

OTOH, despite inevitable mistakes, inevitable incompetence and at times an excess of caution I think that Cameron's government has been one of the best of my adult life in very difficult circumstances. The combination of fiscal prudence and social liberality is exactly what I want, even if I do not agree with every choice they have made.

When the UK eventually decides that the EU is not a club that it wants to be in no doubt the trouble makers will claim to be vindicated and to have been right all along. But they will still have been a shower of bastards.

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

Just yesterday @TSE was telling us that CCHQ had asked him to write threads to remind the Tory right what happened in the 1990s.

Today, we have this piece (and Mr. Meeks, although well written as usual - if 50% too long (also as usual) - you don't really have much of a grasp of the inner workings of the Tory Party, do you.

There are a bunch of irreconcilables. There always will be. They have more power right now because of a small majority and have latched on to the EU referendum as a means to attack Cameron.

But the vast majority of the Tory party - in parliament and outside - is minded towards unity. They will disagree - vehemently - on this issue. I have no doubt that some individual relationships will be shattered. But overall the party wants to remain in power, and believes that Corbyn would be a disaster for the country. Many of the positive-Leavers on this board (e.g. @PhilipThompson @MarqueeMark) have said they would vote for Cameron if he was to stand for re-election after the referendum.

It won't be BoJo. It probably won't be Gove. It won't be Javid (or Morgan). It won't be Osborne. May has a good chance as a safe-ish pair of hands if there is a choice in the next 6 months. Otherwise I think it will be a mid-ranking member of the Cabinet (a Truss, Rudd, Crabbe or somesuch).

Your fourth paragraph ignores the point of your third paragraph. Sometimes a determined minority, even a small minority, can frustrate the will of the great majority. Such a minority did so in the 1990s. A similar minority is shaping up to do so again now. That, in essence, is the point of the thread header.

As in the 1990s, the small minority will be allowed to wreck the government because of the connivance of a larger minority sympathetic to their cause. Once that happens, the identity of the next Conservative leader is more or less irrelevant: we will have non-government.

Nah, what happened in the 1990s was that the party was in turmoil - Major had a much larger group of rebels with running series of votes in Parliament.

Here there is a single referendum which will largely deal with the issue (Except for the anti-Cameroon individuals who would be anti-Cameron anyway and are largely ignored)

There is a bigger issue with the fact that there are a bunch of Tory MPs who are swayed by social media and lack a spine.

Actuallly, on this budget, I have little sympathy with the rebels despite being a Brexiter.

We still have a huge deficit to close.

If the Tory party isn't going to be dry on the money, and drive for a competitive low tax economy, then who is?

blackburn63 said:

All very puzzling, yesterday TSE told us that CCHQ was begging him for positive threads, the very next day Meeks pulls one of his many pro Remain threads from the drawer.

I'm interested to hear what TSE and Meeks hope to gain from such toadying, obsequious behaviour. A job, an audience with Dave, recognition - what is the motive? In thread header after thread header Meeks calls Leavers insane, infantile and mad, there has to be a bigger picture.

Interestingly the header says that Cameron is the politician the public respects, hogwash. Ask labour voters, ukip voters, SNP voters, a growing number of conservatives if they respect Cameron, of course they don't. This site is increasingly representative of this peculiar, self appointed bubble that seeks to frame but is actually massively out of touch with public opinion.

If, and its still a reasonable sized if, Leave wins, this site will be like a day old battlefield after the referendum.

If I wanted to curry favour with the Prime Minister, I can think of better ways of doing it than predicting the inevitable demise of his government into purposeless enervation.

SouthamObserver said:

ydoethur said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Is JC the son of a millionaire? Has he covered up for paedos (more than any other politician?) Is there a correlation between political competence and academic success? You all know I am no fan of his, I've been too close to him for that - but let's stick to the facts.

Labour's problem isn't JC, it's the oppositionist thinking of his fan club. That includes Nick Palmer (and indeed my daughter) both of whom I had thought had far more sense.

His father owned a million pound house, like Miliband Sr. That suggests he had a few quid.

He was told what was happening in Islington by the persistent Ms Davies in 1993. He believed she was motivated by homophobia and did nothing. True, there are politicians on all sides who have a nasty story on this, but he's about the last active one.

No - Baldwin springs to mind - but there is a correlation between stupidity and political failure.

I agree his fan club are also a problem, but Corbyn is certainly a major problem in and of himself. If Clive Lewis or even Emily Thornberry were the leader, I would be much less concerned, and their views are little different from Corbyn's.

My Mum owns a million pound house which she and my Dad bought for £7,000 in I970. She would be a millionaire if she sold it and then decided to live somewhere else completely. But she hasn't, so she isn't.

I have absolutely no time for Corbyn, but calling everyone who has got lucky with property a millionaire is a bit silly.

As I understand it, the house in question had seven bedrooms and a large garden.

OK, I'll take back the millionaire part. His family
Were still very wealthy. I'd have a whole lot more respect for politicians like Hurd, Corbyn and the Milibands if they didn't try to pretend they were from poor backgrounds and understood ordinary people.

Matt

Matt's latest is sure to spark controversy and debate. https://t.co/aSe93B6U0M

Scott_P said:

Oh dear

@allisonpearson: Brussels, de facto capital of the EU, is also the jihadist capital of Europe. And the Remainers dare to say we're safer in the EU! #Brexit

That is nauseating.

The tennis equality fuss is amusing.

Here, equality trumps logic. The men are better, and they attract more support, but the women are given equal pay for ideological reasons. We all know that.

For the same ideological reason, the veterans and juniors at Wimbledon should be given equal pay, surely? Or is ageism allowed?

I'm not much a tennis fan, but if I watch a match, I 'd like the see the best players. As with other sports.

The female footballers complain they are underpaid compared to the men. So is everyone else compared to the vastly over-paid premiership stars, but market forces rule.

Except when they don't.

richardDodd said:

The Brussels Bombing has just handed another few hundred thousand votes to Leave...

Yep, of course. Because if we left the EU it would mean that there would be no terrorist attacks here.

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

Oh dear

@allisonpearson: Brussels, de facto capital of the EU, is also the jihadist capital of Europe. And the Remainers dare to say we're safer in the EU! #Brexit

That is nauseating.

It may be, but either way it's not great news for Remain.

RoyalBlue said:

ydoethur said:

RoyalBlue said:

NickPalmer said:

Speedy said:

The main difference between the 90's and now is that the Tories had their credibility destroyed by Black Wednesday, they were on course for defeat before the rebellion over Maastricht.

There is a parallel there too. They won in 2015 principally because they were seen as the party with a sound grip on economics - Labour was seen as nicer but the Tories would look after the economy. Whether that is still the case, and will continue to be the case, seems incresingly doubtful. And if they lose their reputation for sound management, they don't actually have much else in the eyes of the general public.

Yes, because the public will leap at the chance to have a PM who looks like a homeless supply teacher.

Dream on.

Why is it everyone compares Corbyn to a teacher? I have to dress smartly (my predecessor was sacked because he refused to follow the dress code!) and supply teachers normally have to be even more careful or they're not asked back.

He looks more like an elderly sixth former, whose ties and top buttons are always a disgrace in my experience.

Sorry ydoethur, I'm sure you're a model of style and panache

People think teacher because of the poor attempt at being smart; they obviously wouldn't say that if he rocked up in jeans and T-shirt.

I understand if you can't comment but I'd be interested to know your thoughts on teaching assistants. It's always seemed rather perverse to me to have people in the classroom with no academic qualifications, and I suspect like PCSOs it's a way of massaging unemployment by creating public sector jobs for the unskilled. Were they only rolled out en masse after 1997?

Haven't time to answer properly now. The key point is that funding wasn't available in the 90s until Labour came in.

However, worth remembering they are not there to teach. They're there to help keep children especially SEND children on track and give them continuity between lessons, which helps calm them. That doesn't require academic qualifications, a calm manner and a ability to relate to children is more useful.

A good one is worth their weight in gold in any lesson. Bad ones can be a nuisance but they're also pretty rare.

Must dash.

Shots fired and Arabic shouted before explosions according to Sky

ydoethur said:

RoyalBlue said:

ydoethur said:

RoyalBlue said:

NickPalmer said:

Speedy said:

The main difference between the 90's and now is that the Tories had their credibility destroyed by Black Wednesday, they were on course for defeat before the rebellion over Maastricht.

There is a parallel there too. They won in 2015 principally because they were seen as the party with a sound grip on economics - Labour was seen as nicer but the Tories would look after the economy. Whether that is still the case, and will continue to be the case, seems incresingly doubtful. And if they lose their reputation for sound management, they don't actually have much else in the eyes of the general public.

Yes, because the public will leap at the chance to have a PM who looks like a homeless supply teacher.

Dream on.

Why is it everyone compares Corbyn to a teacher? I have to dress smartly (my predecessor was sacked because he refused to follow the dress code!) and supply teachers normally have to be even more careful or they're not asked back.

He looks more like an elderly sixth former, whose ties and top buttons are always a disgrace in my experience.

Sorry ydoethur, I'm sure you're a model of style and panache

People think teacher because of the poor attempt at being smart; they obviously wouldn't say that if he rocked up in jeans and T-shirt.

I understand if you can't comment but I'd be interested to know your thoughts on teaching assistants. It's always seemed rather perverse to me to have people in the classroom with no academic qualifications, and I suspect like PCSOs it's a way of massaging unemployment by creating public sector jobs for the unskilled. Were they only rolled out en masse after 1997?

Haven't time to answer properly now. The key point is that funding wasn't available in the 90s until Labour came in.

However, worth remembering they are not there to teach. They're there to help keep children especially SEND children on track and give them continuity between lessons, which helps calm them. That doesn't require academic qualifications, a calm manner and a ability to relate to children is more useful.

A good one is worth their weight in gold in any lesson. Bad ones can be a nuisance but they're also pretty rare.

Must dash.

Thanks! Have a good day.

richardDodd said:

SO... your reasoning is faulty.. Perception is all..

The perception being that if we left the EU Moslem fundamentalists would no longer consider us a target for attack? That makes absolutely no sense at all to me. Can you explain?

CarlottaVance said:

richardDodd said:

The Brussels Bombing has just handed another few hundred thousand votes to Leave...

I think that's wrong. Both Hitler and the IRA underestimated the British when it came to bombs....

As have the jihadis.

Mortimer said:

Fundamental misunderstanding of the natural party of government there Alastair.

Concern with the current leadership is that the 'remain at all costs' will scupper electoral chances.

Based on what?

There is no Eurosceptic timeline of electoral success in general elections: quite the reverse. Whenever the Conservatives have defined themselves or been defined by their hostility to the EU, they've been trounced at the polls.

A letter from a teacher of Osborne's in the Evening Standard yesterday said that while he was good in the classroom he avoided team sports which perhaps explains a few things

MikeK said:

The news about the Brussels Bombing is being kept deliberately vague. The authorities are never keen to admit that these explosions are the work of fanatical terrorists. Until, that is, they can no longer keep the news under wraps.

Or is it possible people simply dont yet know, and are busy attending to casualties, and searching for other devices?

Too often (Madrid, Norway) have we seen confident early pronouncements upended by facts....

Charles said:

Just yesterday @TSE was telling us that CCHQ had asked him to write threads to remind the Tory right what happened in the 1990s.

Today, we have this piece (and Mr. Meeks, although well written as usual - if 50% too long (also as usual) - you don't really have much of a grasp of the inner workings of the Tory Party, do you.

There are a bunch of irreconcilables. There always will be. They have more power right now because of a small majority and have latched on to the EU referendum as a means to attack Cameron.

But the vast majority of the Tory party - in parliament and outside - is minded towards unity. They will disagree - vehemently - on this issue. I have no doubt that some individual relationships will be shattered. But overall the party wants to remain in power, and believes that Corbyn would be a disaster for the country. Many of the positive-Leavers on this board (e.g. @PhilipThompson @MarqueeMark) have said they would vote for Cameron if he was to stand for re-election after the referendum.

It won't be BoJo. It probably won't be Gove. It won't be Javid (or Morgan). It won't be Osborne. May has a good chance as a safe-ish pair of hands if there is a choice in the next 6 months. Otherwise I think it will be a mid-ranking member of the Cabinet (a Truss, Rudd, Crabbe or somesuch).

Before an innacurate meme begins it was an ex CCHQ employee who was worried about the party.

It wasn't Andrew Feldman ringing me and telling me.

CNN

GOP nomination
Trump 47
Cruz 31
Kasich 17

Dems
Clinton 51
Sanders 44


General election

Clinton 53
Trump 41

Clinton 48
Cruz 48

Clinton 45
Kasich 51


Sanders 58
Trump 38

Sanders 55
Cruz 42

Sanders 51
Kasich 45

JosiasJessop said:

A question about these awful events in Brussels: would this be a busy time at the airport?

It would have been at the American Airlines check in desks:

https://www.american-airlines.nl/i18n/travelInformation/destinationInformation/bru-airport.jsp?locale=en_BE

RoyalBlue said:

SouthamObserver said:

richardDodd said:

SO... your reasoning is faulty.. Perception is all..

The perception being that if we left the EU Moslem fundamentalists would no longer consider us a target for attack? That makes absolutely no sense at all to me. Can you explain?

Mrs Thatcher said something to the effect that Europe is the source of Britain's problems while America is the source of solutions to those problems.

That's what he's getting at.

I don't blame the EU for the fact that religious fanatics attack and kill people in Europe.

SouthamObserver said:

richardDodd said:

SO... your reasoning is faulty.. Perception is all..

The perception being that if we left the EU Moslem fundamentalists would no longer consider us a target for attack? That makes absolutely no sense at all to me. Can you explain?

The Paris attacks did not prompt a wave of Europhobia. Indeed they brought a sense of fellow feeling with our continental cousins.

MikeK said:

CarlottaVance said:

MikeK said:

The news about the Brussels Bombing is being kept deliberately vague. The authorities are never keen to admit that these explosions are the work of fanatical terrorists. Until, that is, they can no longer keep the news under wraps.

Or is it possible people simply dont yet know, and are busy attending to casualties, and searching for other devices?

Too often (Madrid, Norway) have we seen confident early pronouncements upended by facts....

Ah, but I remember our own London bombings when the BBC insisted for more than 2 hours that those explosions on the tube were simply electrical malfunctions.

Insisted? Really?

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Observer, Schengen's an integral part of both what first attracted the migrants and why the EU has flailed about hopelessly since.

Dr. Foxinsox, I felt huge sympathy for the French over their attacks last year. I don't think this sort of thing is relevant to the EU debate either way. We'll co-operate (us and the other EU nations) in anti-terrorism whether the UK's in or out.

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

Fundamental misunderstanding of the natural party of government there Alastair.

Concern with the current leadership is that the 'remain at all costs' will scupper electoral chances.

Based on what?

There is no Eurosceptic timeline of electoral success in general elections: quite the reverse. Whenever the Conservatives have defined themselves or been defined by their hostility to the EU, they've been trounced at the polls.

You say that, but promising a referendum - itself probably the most eurosceptic act since the 90s - was part of a manifesto that secured the first Tory majority since the 90s.

Think of it this way - euroscepticism is a rising trend amongst the elderly, who are the most likely age group to vote Tory. AB1s are the least likely eurosceptic social group - but are unlikely to be voting for the Tory opposition based on all other factors (not least Corbyn's leadership and apparent vice like grip on the party).

Again, you likely won't believe me because you've repeatedly demonstrated a failure to appreciate the notion of a sensible Leaver, but I wasn't that bothered by Europe until the recent 'remain because of this stunning deal' spouted by a leadership to whom I have always been loyal and for whom I have knocked on countless doors. The reaction amongst the party faithful to the idiocy of our leadership is indicative not of petty fears about Europe, but real fears that being pro Europe destroys our activist base and endangers a majority.

blackburn63 said:

All very puzzling, yesterday TSE told us that CCHQ was begging him for positive threads, the very next day Meeks pulls one of his many pro Remain threads from the drawer.

I'm interested to hear what TSE and Meeks hope to gain from such toadying, obsequious behaviour. A job, an audience with Dave, recognition - what is the motive? .

Maybe they believe what they say and are saying it?

No side is immune to fear mongering and condescension, but given I think leave has the best arguments it frustrates me they still seem the idea which pulls out conspiracy theories the most, and suggests the other side act out of ulterior motive - see how often a Tory remainers is assumed not to really think that but are concerned about their career only(it happens, I'm sure, mist of them? That's complacent thinking).

And the idea this site was ever in tune with public opinion is a bit misplaced.

MikeK said:

CarlottaVance said:

MikeK said:

The news about the Brussels Bombing is being kept deliberately vague. The authorities are never keen to admit that these explosions are the work of fanatical terrorists. Until, that is, they can no longer keep the news under wraps.

Or is it possible people simply dont yet know, and are busy attending to casualties, and searching for other devices?

Too often (Madrid, Norway) have we seen confident early pronouncements upended by facts....

Ah, but I remember our own London bombings when the BBC insisted for more than 2 hours that those explosions on the tube were simply electrical malfunctions.

Was it as long as two hours? The first indications of the problems were electrical malfunctions, as they were detected immediately before survivors could get out.

This news was broadcast, and it took time in the confusion for the real sad story to get out amidst the chaos.

It should be noted that you can also get rather dramatic electrical explosions.

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

Fundamental misunderstanding of the natural party of government there Alastair.

Concern with the current leadership is that the 'remain at all costs' will scupper electoral chances.

Based on what?

There is no Eurosceptic timeline of electoral success in general elections: quite the reverse. Whenever the Conservatives have defined themselves or been defined by their hostility to the EU, they've been trounced at the polls.

You say that, but promising a referendum - itself probably the most eurosceptic act since the 90s - was part of a manifesto that secure the first Tory majority since the 90s.

Think of it this way - euroscepticism is a rising trend amongst the elderly, who are in then the most likely age group to vote Tory. AB1s are the least likely eurosceptic social group - but are unlikely to be voting for the Tory opposition based on all other factors (not least Corbyn's leadership and apparent vice like grip on the party).

Again, you likely won't believe me because you've repeatedly demonstrated a failure to appreciate the notion of a sensible Leaver, but I wasn't that bothered by Europe until the recent 'remain because of this stunning deal' spouted by a leadership to whom I have always been loyal and for whom I have knocked on countless doors. The reaction amongst the party faithful to the idiocy of our leadership is indicative not of petty fears about Europe, but real fears that being pro Europe destroys our activist base and endangers a majority.

Idiocy is believing - in the face of a generation of polling and electoral evidence - that campaigning on hostility to the EU is a vote winner for the Conservatives.

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

richardDodd said:

SO... your reasoning is faulty.. Perception is all..

The perception being that if we left the EU Moslem fundamentalists would no longer consider us a target for attack? That makes absolutely no sense at all to me. Can you explain?

The Paris attacks did not prompt a wave of Europhobia. Indeed they brought a sense of fellow feeling with our continental cousins.

Indeed. In or Out makes no difference either to our safety from terrorism nor how we view our friends and neighbours who are unfortunate enough to be caught up on it.

Spot on. Thank-you Richard.

RoyalBlue said:

ydoethur said:

RoyalBlue said:

NickPalmer said:

Speedy said:

The main difference between the 90's and now is that the Tories had their credibility destroyed by Black Wednesday, they were on course for defeat before the rebellion over Maastricht.

There is a parallel there too. They won in 2015 principally because they were seen as the party with a sound grip on economics - Labour was seen as nicer but the Tories would look after the economy. Whether that is still the case, and will continue to be the case, seems incresingly doubtful. And if they lose their reputation for sound management, they don't actually have much else in the eyes of the general public.

Yes, because the public will leap at the chance to have a PM who looks like a homeless supply teacher.

Dream on.

Why is it everyone compares Corbyn to a teacher? I have to dress smartly (my predecessor was sacked because he refused to follow the dress code!) and supply teachers normally have to be even more careful or they're not asked back.

He looks more like an elderly sixth former, whose ties and top buttons are always a disgrace in my experience.

Sorry ydoethur, I'm sure you're a model of style and panache

People think teacher because of the poor attempt at being smart; they obviously wouldn't say that if he rocked up in jeans and T-shirt.

I understand if you can't comment but I'd be interested to know your thoughts on teaching assistants. It's always seemed rather perverse to me to have people in the classroom with no academic qualifications, and I suspect like PCSOs it's a way of massaging unemployment by creating public sector jobs for the unskilled. Were they only rolled out en masse after 1997?

The government are now creating nursing associates too

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Observer, Schengen's an integral part of both what first attracted the migrants and why the EU has flailed about hopelessly since.

Dr. Foxinsox, I felt huge sympathy for the French over their attacks last year. I don't think this sort of thing is relevant to the EU debate either way. We'll co-operate (us and the other EU nations) in anti-terrorism whether the UK's in or out.

We are not in Schengen and actually a lot of the terrorism we see in Europe is committed by people who were born and raised here a long time before Schengen came into being. It had absolutely no influence on the attacks that happened in either London or Paris, for example.

Another explosion reported at the Brussels Metro station.

Starting to look a little like London 2005.

Sky, explosion at Metro station close to EU buildings

Plato_Says said:

Sky, explosion at Metro station close to EU buildings

Shit

Explosión metro maalbeek https://t.co/9KIEhLMOin