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SystemSystem Posts: 12,639
edited March 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 100 days to go till the referendum and the betting moves a bit closer

"We Have 100 Days to Take Back Control of Our Country" – #GO's Co-Founder @VotePursglove https://t.co/O4aWW29FwU pic.twitter.com/RZlDqsJlpc

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    So that's why ORB isn't on the list?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,997
    edited March 2016
    I don't want to back a 1-3 shorty, but I'm not opposing Douvan in the next.

    No bet.

    Bloody Mullins has cost me £20 already his festival !
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    100 days to save the UK maybe, but a mere 24 HOURS to save the NHS. Wake up people!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    For Max FPT.

    There is a scenario/precedent where Dave resigns as Tory Leader but can remain PM.

    When Churchill first became PM he wasn't Tory leader, Chamberlain still was.

    Dave resigns as PM/Tory leader but the party tells him to the Queen that only he commands a majority of the House to be PM.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,333
    edited March 2016
    First ball of the t20 World Cup - NZ's Guptill hits a six

    Second ball - OUT!

    EDIT ...and hawkeye says it was not out
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited March 2016
    Afternoon all.

    Wasn’t there a poll earlier today showing Leave in the lead with them for the first time?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So that's why ORB isn't on the list?

    Mike's site, Mike's rules.

  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    It was mentioned on the other thread that up to 5 Tory MPs might rebel against the boundary changes. Interestingly, my cpndituency, Preseli, which is home to the Welsh Secretary will take a good chunk of Ceredigion, which is Lib/Plaid. This would take a pretty secure Tory seat into uncharted territory, with an outcome I would not like to predict. I cannot see Crabbe being happy at all, but suspect he is making noises behind the scenes.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:

    I don't want to back a 1-3 shorty, but I'm not opposing Douvan in the next.

    No bet.

    Bloody Mullins has cost me £20 already his festival !

    Douvan is in my multiples
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    edited March 2016
    SimonStClare said:

    Afternoon all.

    Wasn’t there a poll earlier today showing Leave in the lead with them for the first time?

    ORB. Phone poll too. But didn't ask the EURef question also had some other questions before the EURef poll that could have tainted the findings.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Afternoon all.

    Wasn’t there a poll earlier today showing Leave in the lead with them for the first time?

    ORB. Phone poll too. But didn't ask the EURef question also had some other questions before the EURef poll that could have tainted the findings.
    Ah, twas the wrong kind of result :lol:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Afternoon all.

    Wasn’t there a poll earlier today showing Leave in the lead with them for the first time?

    ORB. Phone poll too. But didn't ask the EURef question also had some other questions before the EURef poll that could have tainted the findings.
    Ah, twas the wrong kind of result :lol:
    To be fair to Mike, he's done it for polls that have favoured Remain too.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,550
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For Max FPT.

    There is a scenario/precedent where Dave resigns as Tory Leader but can remain PM.

    When Churchill first became PM he wasn't Tory leader, Chamberlain still was.

    Dave resigns as PM/Tory leader but the party tells him to the Queen that only he commands a majority of the House to be PM.

    Hmm, so there isn't a mechanism to outright reject the leader's resignation. That's the scenario I think is my most favoured. Leave, the party rejects Dave's resignation and he leads a unity cabinet with Boris, Gove and another prominent Leaver in while Osborne, Hammond and Javid are sacrificed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For Max FPT.

    There is a scenario/precedent where Dave resigns as Tory Leader but can remain PM.

    When Churchill first became PM he wasn't Tory leader, Chamberlain still was.

    Dave resigns as PM/Tory leader but the party tells him to the Queen that only he commands a majority of the House to be PM.

    Hmm, so there isn't a mechanism to outright reject the leader's resignation. That's the scenario I think is my most favoured. Leave, the party rejects Dave's resignation and he leads a unity cabinet with Boris, Gove and another prominent Leaver in while Osborne, Hammond and Javid are sacrificed.
    Yup. We're not like UKIP and a leadership cult (sic) and undo a Leader's resignation (I think)

    Dave could go for the John Major 1995 option....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    2 winners.

    That may be my best ever Cheltenham...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,114
    nigel4england said:

    felix said:

    david_herdson said:

    tyson said:

    That is an exceptionally good thought Justin. Remain have a clear majority in the House- so how the hell could they negotiate the terms of a Brexit? They couldn't.

    I think a full blown constitutional crisis would blow up.

    Haha to all you Brexit good folk. A Brexit vote would be as much use as a chocolate tea pot unless Brexit can get a plurality in the house, which they won't, ever. Presumably we'll just do an Ireland until we get a remain victory.

    justin124 said:

    I am inclined at present to vote Leave on 23rd June , but am a bit intrigued as to how matters might develop at Westminster in the aftermath of a Leave vote. Whilst in pure democratic terms Remain MPs are likely to feel obliged to respect the electorate's decision , there would be no reason for such MPs to back the legislation related to a particular Brexit model - whether Canadian style deal - Norway style - or indeed anything else. Effectively Remain MPs might still be able to block Boris - or whoever- negotiating a particular option as a non-EU state. We might find that the likes of Kenneth Clarke et al become a new breed of Tory rebels able to count on overwhelming blocking support from the Opposition benches! Perhaps they would insist on the holding of a further Referendum before agreeing to support the outcome of any Free Trade Deal etc. Just a thought!

    Cameron has already said that he'd invoke Article 50 in the event of a Leave vote. Once that's happened, it really has very little to do with parliament: the door would already be closing.

    Obviously, there would need to be some domestic legislative changes but you overrate the power that Remain has. If Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and some Tory rebels blocked those changes, we'd probably see a general election resulting (plus various deselections in the Tory party).
    Some 'remainers' on here can see no end to the evil that is David Cameron. The fact the he has played a straight bat on this issue has simply failed to compute.
    There is absolutely no chance he will invoke Article 50 immediately if we vote Leave.

    Brussels will insist on further renegotiation and a further vote, and Dodgy Dave will go along with it.

    However Remain will win this quite easily so I don't know why I am getting myself into arguments with people about it.
    I don't understand.

    It's not in Brussels power to insist. A simple majority in parliament is all that is required to Invoke Article 50.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Shoot-out reported in Belgium capital Brussels following anti-terror raid - local media https://t.co/V6Mh5d7zzs
  • isamisam Posts: 42,333
    edited March 2016
    x
    Plato_Says said:

    Shoot-out reported in Belgium capital Brussels following anti-terror raid - local media https://t.co/V6Mh5d7zzs

    The sort of thing that will be commonplace here if we leave the EU
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand.

    It's not in Brussels power to insist. A simple majority in parliament is all that is required to Invoke Article 50.

    I'm not sure it even needs that. Wouldn't it be a Royal Prerogative job?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand.

    It's not in Brussels power to insist. A simple majority in parliament is all that is required to Invoke Article 50.

    I'm not sure it even needs that. Wouldn't it be a Royal Prerogative job?
    That's a job for Michael Gove, as Lord Chancellor, not Privy Council leaker, isn't it?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,262
    GO = Grassroots Out

    GO = George Osborne

    Therefore, GO will be on the winning side.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,550
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For Max FPT.

    There is a scenario/precedent where Dave resigns as Tory Leader but can remain PM.

    When Churchill first became PM he wasn't Tory leader, Chamberlain still was.

    Dave resigns as PM/Tory leader but the party tells him to the Queen that only he commands a majority of the House to be PM.

    Hmm, so there isn't a mechanism to outright reject the leader's resignation. That's the scenario I think is my most favoured. Leave, the party rejects Dave's resignation and he leads a unity cabinet with Boris, Gove and another prominent Leaver in while Osborne, Hammond and Javid are sacrificed.
    Yup. We're not like UKIP and a leadership cult (sic) and undo a Leader's resignation (I think)

    Dave could go for the John Major 1995 option....
    A good idea. Hopefully he goes down the back me or sack me route and Boris/Gove don't stand in return for big jobs leaving it to Redwood (again, lol) to be the standard bearer for the right.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,638
    100 days left!

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Believe in England!
    Believe in Scotland!
    Believe in Wales!
    Believe in Northern Ireland!

    Be LEAVE!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Interesting.

    Andy Burnham says Labour won't oppose investigatory powers bill because that could sink it which he is not prepared to do #snooperscharter
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,603
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For Max FPT.

    There is a scenario/precedent where Dave resigns as Tory Leader but can remain PM.

    When Churchill first became PM he wasn't Tory leader, Chamberlain still was.

    Dave resigns as PM/Tory leader but the party tells him to the Queen that only he commands a majority of the House to be PM.

    Hmm, so there isn't a mechanism to outright reject the leader's resignation. That's the scenario I think is my most favoured. Leave, the party rejects Dave's resignation and he leads a unity cabinet with Boris, Gove and another prominent Leaver in while Osborne, Hammond and Javid are sacrificed.
    Yup. We're not like UKIP and a leadership cult (sic) and undo a Leader's resignation (I think)

    Dave could go for the John Major 1995 option....
    What would be the point of the Major 1995 option if he's already said he's going to step down before 2020?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting.

    Andy Burnham says Labour won't oppose investigatory powers bill because that could sink it which he is not prepared to do #snooperscharter

    @IanDunt: If you fancy a laugh, Andy Burnham is currently talking about snoopers charter in the Commons

    @MrHarryCole: "I'm not paying politics with this bill" says Andy Burnham, who backed it last month but is abstaining today.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    There's another absurd Stronger In tweet today claiming our children will be safer in the EU.
    isam said:

    x

    Plato_Says said:

    Shoot-out reported in Belgium capital Brussels following anti-terror raid - local media https://t.co/V6Mh5d7zzs

    The sort of thing that will be commonplace here if we leave the EU
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Mike

    .@AlexMitchelmore ORB referendum question 42 words long. Actual question on ballot 16 words
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited March 2016 
    Betting Post

    No GOP candidate to win 1237 delegates before Convention

    @ Evens (Ladbrokes)
    Repeating this call that I previously made at 11/10. Without Ohio, where Kasich is trading at 1.25-1.30, it's very difficult for Trump to get to the magic number (he might get close enough to eliminate any real chance of him losing, but that's not the bet).
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Scott_P said:

    2 winners.

    That may be my best ever Cheltenham...

    I hope so too as I followed some of your suggestions.
    Thank you.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,550
    JosiasJessop said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For Max FPT.

    There is a scenario/precedent where Dave resigns as Tory Leader but can remain PM.

    When Churchill first became PM he wasn't Tory leader, Chamberlain still was.

    Dave resigns as PM/Tory leader but the party tells him to the Queen that only he commands a majority of the House to be PM.

    Hmm, so there isn't a mechanism to outright reject the leader's resignation. That's the scenario I think is my most favoured. Leave, the party rejects Dave's resignation and he leads a unity cabinet with Boris, Gove and another prominent Leaver in while Osborne, Hammond and Javid are sacrificed.
    Yup. We're not like UKIP and a leadership cult (sic) and undo a Leader's resignation (I think)

    Dave could go for the John Major 1995 option....
    What would be the point of the Major 1995 option if he's already said he's going to step down before 2020?
    Because he still commands a very wide level of support within the party. Plus no one on the Leave side is ready for the top job so Dave might sense and opportunity to see out most of the term.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike

    .@AlexMitchelmore ORB referendum question 42 words long. Actual question on ballot 16 words

    What were they doing? Trying to sell them double glazing at the same time?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,333
    Plato_Says said:

    There's another absurd Stronger In tweet today claiming our children will be safer in the EU.

    isam said:

    x

    Plato_Says said:

    Shoot-out reported in Belgium capital Brussels following anti-terror raid - local media https://t.co/V6Mh5d7zzs

    The sort of thing that will be commonplace here if we leave the EU
    ..and yet if Cameron hadn't got such a blinding deal, if the renegotiations hadn't resulted in such a massive change to the structure of the EU, he was considering backing LEAVE

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    I hope so too as I followed some of your suggestions.
    Thank you.

    Oh dear. Just to be clear, I was suggesting a total of 2 winners for the week might be a record for me...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,550
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike

    .@AlexMitchelmore ORB referendum question 42 words long. Actual question on ballot 16 words

    We know that the Crosby Textor polls used this kind of tactic and they were far, far more accurate than the simple polls done for newspapers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,114
    Plato_Says said:

    There's another absurd Stronger In tweet today claiming our children will be safer in the EU.

    isam said:

    x

    Plato_Says said:

    Shoot-out reported in Belgium capital Brussels following anti-terror raid - local media https://t.co/V6Mh5d7zzs

    The sort of thing that will be commonplace here if we leave the EU
    And better behaved, right?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    Plato_Says said:

    Shoot-out reported in Belgium capital Brussels following anti-terror raid - local media https://t.co/V6Mh5d7zzs

    Anymore news on the German bomb in a car? Was that terrorist related?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,603
    MaxPB said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For Max FPT.

    There is a scenario/precedent where Dave resigns as Tory Leader but can remain PM.

    When Churchill first became PM he wasn't Tory leader, Chamberlain still was.

    Dave resigns as PM/Tory leader but the party tells him to the Queen that only he commands a majority of the House to be PM.

    Hmm, so there isn't a mechanism to outright reject the leader's resignation. That's the scenario I think is my most favoured. Leave, the party rejects Dave's resignation and he leads a unity cabinet with Boris, Gove and another prominent Leaver in while Osborne, Hammond and Javid are sacrificed.
    Yup. We're not like UKIP and a leadership cult (sic) and undo a Leader's resignation (I think)

    Dave could go for the John Major 1995 option....
    What would be the point of the Major 1995 option if he's already said he's going to step down before 2020?
    Because he still commands a very wide level of support within the party. Plus no one on the Leave side is ready for the top job so Dave might sense and opportunity to see out most of the term.
    Hmmm. I'm unconvinced. I'm also unconvinced that the next leader needs to be from the 'leave' side, or at least the hardcore leavers. Then again, it should not be a hardcore remainer either.

    I'd go for the middle ground. If leave wins, it should perhaps be someone who has been for leave for ages (i.e. not one of the recent switchers) but fairly quiet and moderate about it.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    ABC
    What is the support for Donald Trump all about? An @ABC analysis: https://t.co/9OsJOgUDoY https://t.co/FF1XmyFFrB
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike

    .@AlexMitchelmore ORB referendum question 42 words long. Actual question on ballot 16 words

    What were they doing? Trying to sell them double glazing at the same time?
    Regardless of how likely you would be to actually vote, if a referendum on UK's membership of the EU was held today, would you vote for the United Kingdom to remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The table isn't the updated version because it doesn't include the latest ORB poll. This is what it looks like:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Much as I quite fancy Anna Soubry she really is stupid:

    http://order-order.com/2016/03/15/eu-order-of-the-ott-super-soubs-souped-up-spin/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,603
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Shoot-out reported in Belgium capital Brussels following anti-terror raid - local media https://t.co/V6Mh5d7zzs

    Anymore news on the German bomb in a car? Was that terrorist related?
    Given the lack of destruction in the car from the piccies I've seen (if that was the car, and not an innocent one caught up in the blast), then either it was a terrorist bomb that fizzled, or a targeted assassination.

    But IANAE.
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    Does anyone agree with me that Andy Burnham (Mr Flip-flop) is totally out of his depth as Shadow Home Secretary? He gets very shouty when under pressure!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    breaking: shots fired on Police in Brussels, in operation related to Paris attacks...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,550
    JosiasJessop said:

    MaxPB said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For Max FPT.

    There is a scenario/precedent where Dave resigns as Tory Leader but can remain PM.

    When Churchill first became PM he wasn't Tory leader, Chamberlain still was.

    Dave resigns as PM/Tory leader but the party tells him to the Queen that only he commands a majority of the House to be PM.

    Hmm, so there isn't a mechanism to outright reject the leader's resignation. That's the scenario I think is my most favoured. Leave, the party rejects Dave's resignation and he leads a unity cabinet with Boris, Gove and another prominent Leaver in while Osborne, Hammond and Javid are sacrificed.
    Yup. We're not like UKIP and a leadership cult (sic) and undo a Leader's resignation (I think)

    Dave could go for the John Major 1995 option....
    What would be the point of the Major 1995 option if he's already said he's going to step down before 2020?
    Because he still commands a very wide level of support within the party. Plus no one on the Leave side is ready for the top job so Dave might sense and opportunity to see out most of the term.
    Hmmm. I'm unconvinced. I'm also unconvinced that the next leader needs to be from the 'leave' side, or at least the hardcore leavers. Then again, it should not be a hardcore remainer either.

    I'd go for the middle ground. If leave wins, it should perhaps be someone who has been for leave for ages (i.e. not one of the recent switchers) but fairly quiet and moderate about it.
    That would have been Hammond if he'd had the balls to declare for Leave. Therein lies the problem, there are no credible Leave big hitters who could walk into the job. Boris is the closest but I know a lot of Tory MPs aren't convinced that he is ready for the top job. If Dave agreed to sack at least Osborne and Hammond and give their jobs to Boris and Gove he could probably hold on. Sacking the traitor Javid would be icing.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,201
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Afternoon all.

    Wasn’t there a poll earlier today showing Leave in the lead with them for the first time?

    ORB. Phone poll too. But didn't ask the EURef question also had some other questions before the EURef poll that could have tainted the findings.
    Looking at the Telegraph I see the ORB poll had just 185 respondents, so the margin of error is ~ twice that of most polls.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Tissue_Price said:

    Betting Post

    No GOP candidate to win 1237 delegates before Convention

    @ Evens (Ladbrokes)
    Repeating this call that I previously made at 11/10. Without Ohio, where Kasich is trading at 1.25-1.30, it's very difficult for Trump to get to the magic number (he might get close enough to eliminate any real chance of him losing, but that's not the bet).
    I'm persuaded - I'm on this.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,333
    edited March 2016
    nigel4england said:

    Much as I quite fancy Anna Soubry she really is stupid:

    http://order-order.com/2016/03/15/eu-order-of-the-ott-super-soubs-souped-up-spin/

    "Jonathan Dimbleby: “Can you both agree on a matter of fact, what proportion of this market is in Europe and what proportion is outside?”

    Anna Soubry: “44% of our exports which is £290 billion goes into the EU.”

    Kate Hoey: “That has gone down by 10% in the last 8 years.”

    Anna Soubry: “But Kate it will go down to almost absolutely zero if we come out of the EU.”"

    No doubt she had the perma shocked look on her face as if utterly baffled no one agreed with her views, delivered in a Midsomer Murders style hammy acting stylee

    Bloody SDPers
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,393
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike

    .@AlexMitchelmore ORB referendum question 42 words long. Actual question on ballot 16 words

    What were they doing? Trying to sell them double glazing at the same time?
    Regardless of how likely you would be to actually vote, if a referendum on UK's membership of the EU was held today, would you vote for the United Kingdom to remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
    That question seems pretty even-handed to me.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    JosiasJessop said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Shoot-out reported in Belgium capital Brussels following anti-terror raid - local media https://t.co/V6Mh5d7zzs

    Anymore news on the German bomb in a car? Was that terrorist related?
    Given the lack of destruction in the car from the piccies I've seen (if that was the car, and not an innocent one caught up in the blast), then either it was a terrorist bomb that fizzled, or a targeted assassination.

    But IANAE.
    sources reckon it's gangland/drug related.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Tissue_Price said:

    Betting Post

    No GOP candidate to win 1237 delegates before Convention

    @ Evens (Ladbrokes)
    Repeating this call that I previously made at 11/10. Without Ohio, where Kasich is trading at 1.25-1.30, it's very difficult for Trump to get to the magic number (he might get close enough to eliminate any real chance of him losing, but that's not the bet).
    I agree
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    No tears before bedtime is guaranteed.
    rcs1000 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    There's another absurd Stronger In tweet today claiming our children will be safer in the EU.

    isam said:

    x

    Plato_Says said:

    Shoot-out reported in Belgium capital Brussels following anti-terror raid - local media https://t.co/V6Mh5d7zzs

    The sort of thing that will be commonplace here if we leave the EU
    And better behaved, right?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Sky saying organised crime?!
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Shoot-out reported in Belgium capital Brussels following anti-terror raid - local media https://t.co/V6Mh5d7zzs

    Anymore news on the German bomb in a car? Was that terrorist related?
  • eekeek Posts: 31,008
    rcs1000 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    There's another absurd Stronger In tweet today claiming our children will be safer in the EU.

    isam said:

    x

    Plato_Says said:

    Shoot-out reported in Belgium capital Brussels following anti-terror raid - local media https://t.co/V6Mh5d7zzs

    The sort of thing that will be commonplace here if we leave the EU
    And better behaved, right?
    I'm waiting for a comment on the french banning the Britain from French Kissing and using French letters...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @alexmassie: "So much of the case for leaving is based on unicorn-farming that it is hard to take its promises seriously" #Brexit https://t.co/Sv5iNM61r7
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    isam said:

    nigel4england said:

    Much as I quite fancy Anna Soubry she really is stupid:

    http://order-order.com/2016/03/15/eu-order-of-the-ott-super-soubs-souped-up-spin/

    "Jonathan Dimbleby: “Can you both agree on a matter of fact, what proportion of this market is in Europe and what proportion is outside?”

    Anna Soubry: “44% of our exports which is £290 billion goes into the EU.”

    Kate Hoey: “That has gone down by 10% in the last 8 years.”

    Anna Soubry: “But Kate it will go down to almost absolutely zero if we come out of the EU.”"

    No doubt she had the perma shocked look on her face as if utterly baffled no one agreed with her views, delivered in a Midsomer Murders style hammy acting stylee

    Bloody SDPers
    nd to think only an hour or so ago Mr. Jessop accused Leave of being liars.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    JosiasJessop said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Sorry, but that's rubbish because the two options are mutually exclusive. Leave are dishonestly trying to create a big tent in which large segments will be discontent after the vote. Leave are ignoring this issue when it should be front and centre.

    Worse, it's setting up massive arguments amongst leave supporters if leave win. What does the vote even mean? Many will say it means the EEA approach, whilst others will argue against that. And our negotiations with the EU will have to be undertaken in such an environment.

    If Remain are selling a false prospectus, then Leave's isn't even a prospectus. It's a load of disjointed grumbles.

    As I've said many times before, the fear (and that is the right word) of further integration is pushing me towards voting leave. One of the factors pushing me back towards remain is the fact that Remain are to stupid to know, or dishonest to say, what a leave vote means.

    For the moment, the former factor is heavier than the latter.

    For the moment.

    So what if it sets up an argument afterwards? That is what democracy is for. Should we scrap all future elections because people may have disagreements and there's more than one opposition party?

    There is no dishonesty as the necessary prerequisite for both options it to Leave first. If you want to control immigration then vote Leave. If you want to join the EEA then vote Leave.

    If there is a Leave vote then we have democracy to sort out our own future.
    The time for democracy is at the vote, not after. Voting leave in the current situation is like saying: "You vote, and we'll decide on our policies afterwards. We might be as left-wing as Corbyn, or as right-wing as IDS. We'll let you know."

    IMO the gulf between the anti-immigration/sovereignty and pro-EEA positions are far too wide and mutually incompatible to be honestly covered by one campaign.
    No the time for democracy is every five years. The timing for referendums on Europe is 41 years apart currently. To expect all democratic decisions to be made once is naive. Since the last European Referendum we have had no fewer than NINE General Elections, four of which saw a change in the parties of government.

    What Leavers are united on is that we should Leave the EU and decide for ourselves what we want. The future is never set in stone.
    Not when the concept of what 'leave' means is so vague. To many, the EEA would not be leave, especially as it would not allow full control of borders.
    The concept of Leave is not remotely vague. Leave means we decide. If we don't like our decision we can change it every five years.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    We could vote Leave on 23 June 2016 and still have close to two years 'pre-negotiation negotiations' before the government served Article 50 to complete exit before the next election. A useful by-product of an early referendum?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IanDunt: Burnham completely outclassed and outperformed by May. Not even in the same weight division.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    breaking: shots fired on Police in Brussels, in operation related to Paris attacks...

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-belgium-security-shots-idUSKCN0WH1U7
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    justin124 said:

    david_herdson said:

    tyson said:

    That is an exceptionally good thought Justin. Remain have a clear majority in the House- so how the hell could they

    Haha to all you Brexit good folk. A Brexit vote would be as much use as a chocolate tea pot unless Brexit can get a plurality in the house, which they won't, ever. Presumably we'll just do an Ireland until we get a remain victory.

    justin124 said:

    I am inclined at present to vote Leave on 23rd June , but am a bit intrigued as to how matters might develop at Westminster in the aftermath of a Leave vote. Whilst in pure democratic terms Remain MPs are likely to feel obliged to respect the electorate's decision , there would be no reason for such MPs to back the legislation related to a particular Brexit model - whether Canadian style deal - Norway style - or indeed anything else. Effectively Remain MPs might still be able to block Boris - or whoever- negotiating a particular option as a non-EU state. We might find that the likes of Kenneth Clarke et al become a new breed of Tory rebels able to count on overwhelming blocking support from the Opposition benches! Perhaps they would insist on the holding of a further Referendum before agreeing to support the outcome of any Free Trade Deal etc. Just a thought!

    Cameron has already said that he'd invoke Article 50 in the event of a Leave vote. Once that's happened, it really has very little to do with parliament: the door would already be closing.

    Obviously, there would need to be some domestic legislative changes but you overrate the power that Remain has. If Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and some Tory rebels blocked those changes, we'd probably see a general election resulting (plus various deselections in the Tory party).
    A general election would only be triggered by the Government seeking to engineer a Vote of No Confidence in itself whereupon a dissolution would occur should it prove impossible to form another Administration within two weeks. That would probably not impress the electorate. I find it highly unlikely that Opposition MPs would meekly assent to an election - unless their prospects look good.
    No, it could simply resign. No other government could be formed and an election campaign would automatically be triggered two weeks later.

    As a means of engineering an election to take advantage of current popularity, it's not good because it's too clever by half and gives plenty of time for the other parties to criticise. However, if the other parties are seen to have forced the government into resigning on an issue where the public had already spoken and where parliament was blocking the public's wishes, then I'd expect the electorate to at least understand and probably support the government's actions.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    geoffw said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Afternoon all.

    Wasn’t there a poll earlier today showing Leave in the lead with them for the first time?

    ORB. Phone poll too. But didn't ask the EURef question also had some other questions before the EURef poll that could have tainted the findings.
    Looking at the Telegraph I see the ORB poll had just 185 respondents, so the margin of error is ~ twice that of most polls.
    That's a sub sample.

    The whole poll had over 800 respondents
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    chestnut said:

    We could vote Leave on 23 June 2016 and still have close to two years 'pre-negotiation negotiations' before the government served Article 50 to complete exit before the next election. A useful by-product of an early referendum?

    In theory, yes. In practice, the Conservative MPs will ensure not.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    isam said:

    nigel4england said:

    Much as I quite fancy Anna Soubry she really is stupid:

    http://order-order.com/2016/03/15/eu-order-of-the-ott-super-soubs-souped-up-spin/

    "Jonathan Dimbleby: “Can you both agree on a matter of fact, what proportion of this market is in Europe and what proportion is outside?”

    Anna Soubry: “44% of our exports which is £290 billion goes into the EU.”

    Kate Hoey: “That has gone down by 10% in the last 8 years.”

    Anna Soubry: “But Kate it will go down to almost absolutely zero if we come out of the EU.”"

    No doubt she had the perma shocked look on her face as if utterly baffled no one agreed with her views, delivered in a Midsomer Murders style hammy acting stylee

    Bloody SDPers
    Depends on what you think the meaning of the word "absolutely" is ?
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,824
    valleyboy said:

    It was mentioned on the other thread that up to 5 Tory MPs might rebel against the boundary changes. Interestingly, my cpndituency, Preseli, which is home to the Welsh Secretary will take a good chunk of Ceredigion, which is Lib/Plaid. This would take a pretty secure Tory seat into uncharted territory, with an outcome I would not like to predict. I cannot see Crabbe being happy at all, but suspect he is making noises behind the scenes.

    Actually I think that's pretty unlikely - much more likely to take some of the Pembrokeshire South bit of the pretty ugly 'Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South' seat as currently looking at the electorates and various potential options.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    david_herdson said:

    In theory, yes.

    I am not sure that is true. Brussels would probably come up with something like you can't start negotiating until Article 50 is triggered
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    david_herdson said:

    justin124 said:

    david_herdson said:

    tyson said:

    That is an exceptionally good thought Justin. Remain have a clear majority in the House- so how the hell could they

    Haha to all you Brexit good folk. A Brexit vote would be as much use as a chocolate tea pot unless Brexit can get a plurality in the house, which they won't, ever. Presumably we'll just do an Ireland until we get a remain victory.


    Cameron has already said that he'd invoke Article 50 in the event of a Leave vote. Once that's happened, it really has very little to do with parliament: the door would already be closing.

    Obviously, there would need to be some domestic legislative changes but you overrate the power that Remain has. If Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and some Tory rebels blocked those changes, we'd probably see a general election resulting (plus various deselections in the Tory party).
    A general election would only be triggered by the Government seeking to engineer a Vote of No Confidence in itself whereupon a dissolution would occur should it prove impossible to form another Administration within two weeks. That would probably not impress the electorate. I find it highly unlikely that Opposition MPs would meekly assent to an election - unless their prospects look good.
    No, it could simply resign. No other government could be formed and an election campaign would automatically be triggered two weeks later.

    As a means of engineering an election to take advantage of current popularity, it's not good because it's too clever by half and gives plenty of time for the other parties to criticise. However, if the other parties are seen to have forced the government into resigning on an issue where the public had already spoken and where parliament was blocking the public's wishes, then I'd expect the electorate to at least understand and probably support the government's actions.
    The convention when a government resigns is the LOTO is charged by HMQ with forming a government, as in 1905, even if in a minority in the HoC...

    That convention has not been displaced by the FTPA.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,550
    edited March 2016
    isam said:

    nigel4england said:

    Much as I quite fancy Anna Soubry she really is stupid:

    http://order-order.com/2016/03/15/eu-order-of-the-ott-super-soubs-souped-up-spin/

    "Jonathan Dimbleby: “Can you both agree on a matter of fact, what proportion of this market is in Europe and what proportion is outside?”

    Anna Soubry: “44% of our exports which is £290 billion goes into the EU.”

    Kate Hoey: “That has gone down by 10% in the last 8 years.”

    Anna Soubry: “But Kate it will go down to almost absolutely zero if we come out of the EU.”"

    No doubt she had the perma shocked look on her face as if utterly baffled no one agreed with her views, delivered in a Midsomer Murders style hammy acting stylee

    Bloody SDPers
    She also makes it sound like the £290bn figure is related to the 44% figure when the reality is that £290bn is 100% of goods exports.

    Also the idea that our trade will fall to zero in the event of Leave would be funny if it wasn't such a horrible fear tactic from the remain camp.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Tissue_Price said:

    Betting Post

    No GOP candidate to win 1237 delegates before Convention

    @ Evens (Ladbrokes)
    Repeating this call that I previously made at 11/10. Without Ohio, where Kasich is trading at 1.25-1.30, it's very difficult for Trump to get to the magic number (he might get close enough to eliminate any real chance of him losing, but that's not the bet).
    I made that analysis yesterday, without Ohio Trump will need an almost complete sweep of N.Y and Pennsylvania or California.
    He will be about 60 delegates short of target by the time N.Y votes next month.

    Anyway this snippet from Illinois shows the difficulty for Trump to get delegates there:

    https://twitter.com/spartacus90210/status/709745173929074688
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Betting Post

    No GOP candidate to win 1237 delegates before Convention

    @ Evens (Ladbrokes)
    Repeating this call that I previously made at 11/10. Without Ohio, where Kasich is trading at 1.25-1.30, it's very difficult for Trump to get to the magic number (he might get close enough to eliminate any real chance of him losing, but that's not the bet).
    I'm persuaded - I'm on this.
    Yes, it's a good tip, especially considering that you haven't necessarily lost even if Trump does win Ohio.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,603
    Philip_Thompson said:

    The concept of Leave is not remotely vague. Leave means we decide. If we don't like our decision we can change it every five years.

    Eh?

    If we 'leave' and join the EEA, you are saying that each and every GE will be a referendum on that membership?

    That's patently ridiculous, and means that the EEA would be bonkers to admit us.

    Besides, general elections are generally about more than one issue.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,997
    edited March 2016
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Betting Post

    No GOP candidate to win 1237 delegates before Convention

    @ Evens (Ladbrokes)
    Repeating this call that I previously made at 11/10. Without Ohio, where Kasich is trading at 1.25-1.30, it's very difficult for Trump to get to the magic number (he might get close enough to eliminate any real chance of him losing, but that's not the bet).
    I'm persuaded - I'm on this.
    I'd back it if I could find the market.

    Cut to 4-5. Not enough for me.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2016
    ORB Tables :

    http://www.opinion.co.uk/perch/resources/marchdt.pdf

    Sample is roughly the same size as Ipsos.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Scott_P said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    I hope so too as I followed some of your suggestions.
    Thank you.

    Oh dear. Just to be clear, I was suggesting a total of 2 winners for the week might be a record for me...
    No worries, I only bet small stakes on stuff like this.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    geoffw said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Afternoon all.

    Wasn’t there a poll earlier today showing Leave in the lead with them for the first time?

    ORB. Phone poll too. But didn't ask the EURef question also had some other questions before the EURef poll that could have tainted the findings.
    Looking at the Telegraph I see the ORB poll had just 185 respondents, so the margin of error is ~ twice that of most polls.
    Surely that cannot be right.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,201
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    geoffw said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Afternoon all.

    Wasn’t there a poll earlier today showing Leave in the lead with them for the first time?

    ORB. Phone poll too. But didn't ask the EURef question also had some other questions before the EURef poll that could have tainted the findings.
    Looking at the Telegraph I see the ORB poll had just 185 respondents, so the margin of error is ~ twice that of most polls.
    That's a sub sample.

    The whole poll had over 800 respondents
    Thanks for that.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Wanderer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Betting Post

    No GOP candidate to win 1237 delegates before Convention

    @ Evens (Ladbrokes)
    Repeating this call that I previously made at 11/10. Without Ohio, where Kasich is trading at 1.25-1.30, it's very difficult for Trump to get to the magic number (he might get close enough to eliminate any real chance of him losing, but that's not the bet).
    I'm persuaded - I'm on this.
    Yes, it's a good tip, especially considering that you haven't necessarily lost even if Trump does win Ohio.
    If Trump wins Ohio he will get a majority of delegates, that is guaranteed, however his chances of victory there are tiny.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,325
    POGWAS.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/709752478468849664
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,603
    edited March 2016
    nigel4england said:

    isam said:

    nigel4england said:

    Much as I quite fancy Anna Soubry she really is stupid:

    http://order-order.com/2016/03/15/eu-order-of-the-ott-super-soubs-souped-up-spin/

    "Jonathan Dimbleby: “Can you both agree on a matter of fact, what proportion of this market is in Europe and what proportion is outside?”

    Anna Soubry: “44% of our exports which is £290 billion goes into the EU.”

    Kate Hoey: “That has gone down by 10% in the last 8 years.”

    Anna Soubry: “But Kate it will go down to almost absolutely zero if we come out of the EU.”"

    No doubt she had the perma shocked look on her face as if utterly baffled no one agreed with her views, delivered in a Midsomer Murders style hammy acting stylee

    Bloody SDPers
    nd to think only an hour or so ago Mr. Jessop accused Leave of being liars.
    That's a stupid attack. I said Leave's argument is based on a whopper of a lie: i.e. not being willing to say what Leave means.

    I never said anything about Remain being utterly truthful. Nor would I.

    You might be better off encouraging Leave to answer that question than in attacking me.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    edited March 2016
    Is there something wrong with oddschecker?

    According to them, Bet365, Trump is -350/1 to be the GOP nominee

    Ted Cruz 550/1 with BetFred

    Marco Rubio is 3300/1 with a lot of Bookies

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    Scott_P said:

    @IanDunt: Burnham completely outclassed and outperformed by May. Not even in the same weight division.

    Not sure Hilary Benn is too impressed either.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,997
    edited March 2016
    JosiasJessop said:

    nigel4england said:

    isam said:

    nigel4england said:

    Much as I quite fancy Anna Soubry she really is stupid:

    http://order-order.com/2016/03/15/eu-order-of-the-ott-super-soubs-souped-up-spin/

    "Jonathan Dimbleby: “Can you both agree on a matter of fact, what proportion of this market is in Europe and what proportion is outside?”

    Anna Soubry: “44% of our exports which is £290 billion goes into the EU.”

    Kate Hoey: “That has gone down by 10% in the last 8 years.”

    Anna Soubry: “But Kate it will go down to almost absolutely zero if we come out of the EU.”"

    No doubt she had the perma shocked look on her face as if utterly baffled no one agreed with her views, delivered in a Midsomer Murders style hammy acting stylee

    Bloody SDPers
    nd to think only an hour or so ago Mr. Jessop accused Leave of being liars.
    That's a stupid attack. I said Leave's argument is based on a whopper of a lie: i.e. not being willing to say what Leave means.

    I never said anything about Remain being utterly truthful. Nor would I.

    You might be better of encouraging Leave to answer that question than in attacking me.
    As much as Farage might like it to be, "leave" is not one single truism or person. It's like asking for a divorce - who gets the kid and house is decided afterwards.

    'Leave' is not being dishonest, it should admit it has no crystal ball !

    If we vote to leave also, those committed to "Remain" will need to adapt to the new reality and so that may swing th 'out' deal to a closer one with Europe than otherwise may be.

    Since "Remain" is fully campaigning for "remain" at this points, and "Leave" has zero people in positions of true power its an open question.

    I guess the closest one might get it looking at Boris Johnson/Michael Gove's personal views (More Gove maybe) as they're likely to have the most power if we leave.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sky News anchor looked like she was going to throw up after playing Trump's 'the Snake'.

    Just report the news, dearie...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    JosiasJessop said:

    nigel4england said:

    isam said:

    nigel4england said:

    Much as I quite fancy Anna Soubry she really is stupid:

    http://order-order.com/2016/03/15/eu-order-of-the-ott-super-soubs-souped-up-spin/

    "Jonathan Dimbleby: “Can you both agree on a matter of fact, what proportion of this market is in Europe and what proportion is outside?”

    Anna Soubry: “44% of our exports which is £290 billion goes into the EU.”

    Kate Hoey: “That has gone down by 10% in the last 8 years.”

    Anna Soubry: “But Kate it will go down to almost absolutely zero if we come out of the EU.”"

    No doubt she had the perma shocked look on her face as if utterly baffled no one agreed with her views, delivered in a Midsomer Murders style hammy acting stylee

    Bloody SDPers
    nd to think only an hour or so ago Mr. Jessop accused Leave of being liars.
    That's a stupid attack. I said Leave's argument is based on a whopper of a lie: i.e. not being willing to say what Leave means.

    I never said anything about Remain being utterly truthful. Nor would I.

    You might be better of encouraging Leave to answer that question than in attacking me.
    It's not a whopper of a lie since Leave is an action not an individual. Leave means we decide, Vote Leave Take Control. What we decide is up to us.

    Remain and we have no more of a clue what we will decide but we also have no idea what the 27 other governments that we are tied to will decide either.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is there something wrong with oddschecker?

    According to them, Bet365, Trump is -350/1 to be the GOP nominee

    Ted Cruz 550/1 with BetFred

    Marco Rubio is 3300/1 with a lot of Bookies

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

    American odds.

    They kinda make sense once you get used to them.

    Change them back by clicking decimal or fractional odds on the left sidebar.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Philip_Thompson said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Sorry, but that's rubbish because the two options are mutually exclusive. Leave are dishonestly trying to create a big tent in which large segments will be discontent after the vote. Leave are ignoring this issue when it should be front and centre.

    So what if it sets up an argument afterwards? That is what democracy is for. Should we scrap all future elections because people may have disagreements and there's more than one opposition party?

    There is no dishonesty as the necessary prerequisite for both options it to Leave first. If you want to control immigration then vote Leave. If you want to join the EEA then vote Leave.

    If there is a Leave vote then we have democracy to sort out our own future.

    The time for democracy is at the vote, not after. Voting leave in the current situation is like saying: "You vote, and we'll decide on our policies afterwards. We might be as left-wing as Corbyn, or as right-wing as IDS. We'll let you know."

    IMO the gulf between the anti-immigration/sovereignty and pro-EEA positions are far too wide and mutually incompatible to be honestly covered by one campaign.
    No the time for democracy is every five years. The timing for referendums on Europe is 41 years apart currently. To expect all democratic decisions to be made once is naive. Since the last European Referendum we have had no fewer than NINE General Elections, four of which saw a change in the parties of government.

    What Leavers are united on is that we should Leave the EU and decide for ourselves what we want. The future is never set in stone.
    Not when the concept of what 'leave' means is so vague. To many, the EEA would not be leave, especially as it would not allow full control of borders.
    The concept of Leave is not remotely vague. Leave means we decide. If we don't like our decision we can change it every five years.
    That would be great for the long-term stability of the country :) hokey cokey anyone?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,333
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is there something wrong with oddschecker?

    According to them, Bet365, Trump is -350/1 to be the GOP nominee

    Ted Cruz 550/1 with BetFred

    Marco Rubio is 3300/1 with a lot of Bookies

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

    You are looking at American odds, not fractions
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    david_herdson said:

    chestnut said:

    We could vote Leave on 23 June 2016 and still have close to two years 'pre-negotiation negotiations' before the government served Article 50 to complete exit before the next election. A useful by-product of an early referendum?

    In theory, yes. In practice, the Conservative MPs will ensure not.
    Are you sure?

    The more I see of the debate, the less certain I am that a Leave vote will actually result in steps to leave taking place. The liberal part of the Tory party and the right of the Labour party see it as disastrous, and probably command a majority in the house, with a small sprinkling of LDs to help out. It's a faction that can lay claim to moderate centrism and stability as against the "hard left" of Corbyn and the "chaotic loons with no plan" of the Leave campaign.

    Of course it won't be phrased as "the results are in.... but Nope!" but rather a continuation of the current campaign: "it's so dangerous for our children/economy/those darling fluffy little kittens you see on Facebook and anyway the result is so unclear, nobody even knows what they were voting for so now we have to go through a process of deciding what Leave looks like, even if we seriously think the electorate want it, which of course they don't..." etc etc

    Just me?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm bored stiff of inane UK political coverage of Trump.

    It's totally absent of analysis. I can feel the presenters thinking Stupid Rednecks.
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky News anchor looked like she was going to throw up after playing Trump's 'the Snake'.

    Just report the news, dearie...

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,325
    Corbyn declaring for Remain after a fashion.

    https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/709753306126688256
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    JosiasJessop said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The concept of Leave is not remotely vague. Leave means we decide. If we don't like our decision we can change it every five years.

    Eh?

    If we 'leave' and join the EEA, you are saying that each and every GE will be a referendum on that membership?

    That's patently ridiculous, and means that the EEA would be bonkers to admit us.

    Besides, general elections are generally about more than one issue.
    No I'm saying that if we Leave and want to join the EEA then anyone who wants to leave the EEA can opt to vote for a party with that as it's policy.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Polruan said:

    david_herdson said:

    chestnut said:

    We could vote Leave on 23 June 2016 and still have close to two years 'pre-negotiation negotiations' before the government served Article 50 to complete exit before the next election. A useful by-product of an early referendum?

    In theory, yes. In practice, the Conservative MPs will ensure not.
    Are you sure?

    The more I see of the debate, the less certain I am that a Leave vote will actually result in steps to leave taking place. The liberal part of the Tory party and the right of the Labour party see it as disastrous, and probably command a majority in the house, with a small sprinkling of LDs to help out. It's a faction that can lay claim to moderate centrism and stability as against the "hard left" of Corbyn and the "chaotic loons with no plan" of the Leave campaign.

    Of course it won't be phrased as "the results are in.... but Nope!" but rather a continuation of the current campaign: "it's so dangerous for our children/economy/those darling fluffy little kittens you see on Facebook and anyway the result is so unclear, nobody even knows what they were voting for so now we have to go through a process of deciding what Leave looks like, even if we seriously think the electorate want it, which of course they don't..." etc etc

    Just me?
    Were that to happen, the Tories would suffer a heavy defeat at the next GE.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,603
    Pulpstar said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    nigel4england said:

    isam said:

    nigel4england said:

    Much as I quite fancy Anna Soubry she really is stupid:

    http://order-order.com/2016/03/15/eu-order-of-the-ott-super-soubs-souped-up-spin/

    "Jonathan Dimbleby: “Can you both agree on a matter of fact, what proportion of this market is in Europe and what proportion is outside?”

    Anna Soubry: “44% of our exports which is £290 billion goes into the EU.”

    Kate Hoey: “That has gone down by 10% in the last 8 years.”

    Anna Soubry: “But Kate it will go down to almost absolutely zero if we come out of the EU.”"

    No doubt she had the perma shocked look on her face as if utterly baffled no one agreed with her views, delivered in a Midsomer Murders style hammy acting stylee

    Bloody SDPers
    nd to think only an hour or so ago Mr. Jessop accused Leave of being liars.
    That's a stupid attack. I said Leave's argument is based on a whopper of a lie: i.e. not being willing to say what Leave means.

    I never said anything about Remain being utterly truthful. Nor would I.

    You might be better of encouraging Leave to answer that question than in attacking me.
    As much as Farage might like it to be, "leave" is not one single truism. It's like asking for a divorce - who gets the kid and house is decided afterwards.
    I'm not sure that's an accurate analogy. By the same regard, would the hardcore leavers on here be happy if, after a narrow remain vote, the government decided to fully enter the EU by getting rid of all our safeguard and joining the Euro?

    We need to know what we're voting on. On the remain side, it's Cameron's renegotiation (and yes, that may change in the medium or long term). On the leave side, it's a nebulous mess.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,325
    So Mr Joubert why did you send Cole off?

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-03-15/wales-prop-tomas-francis-banned-for-eight-weeks/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,114
    Scott_P said:

    david_herdson said:

    In theory, yes.

    I am not sure that is true. Brussels would probably come up with something like you can't start negotiating until Article 50 is triggered
    Well, that's the text of Article 50 (http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html).

    You declare you wish to leave, and then the negotiation starts.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Nice winner TSE
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    edited March 2016
    Pong said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is there something wrong with oddschecker?

    According to them, Bet365, Trump is -350/1 to be the GOP nominee

    Ted Cruz 550/1 with BetFred

    Marco Rubio is 3300/1 with a lot of Bookies

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

    American odds.

    They kinda make sense once you get used to them.

    Change them back by clicking decimal or fractional odds on the left sidebar.
    Cheers. Got a new laptop and need to restore the settings.

    I was seriously worried for a moment
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Yeah, my first Cheltenham winner
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,393
    JosiasJessop said:

    nigel4england said:

    isam said:

    nigel4england said:

    Much as I quite fancy Anna Soubry she really is stupid:

    http://order-order.com/2016/03/15/eu-order-of-the-ott-super-soubs-souped-up-spin/

    "Jonathan Dimbleby: “Can you both agree on a matter of fact, what proportion of this market is in Europe and what proportion is outside?”

    Anna Soubry: “44% of our exports which is £290 billion goes into the EU.”

    Kate Hoey: “That has gone down by 10% in the last 8 years.”

    Anna Soubry: “But Kate it will go down to almost absolutely zero if we come out of the EU.”"

    No doubt she had the perma shocked look on her face as if utterly baffled no one agreed with her views, delivered in a Midsomer Murders style hammy acting stylee

    Bloody SDPers
    nd to think only an hour or so ago Mr. Jessop accused Leave of being liars.
    That's a stupid attack. I said Leave's argument is based on a whopper of a lie: i.e. not being willing to say what Leave means.

    I never said anything about Remain being utterly truthful. Nor would I.

    You might be better off encouraging Leave to answer that question than in attacking me.
    Vote Leave almost certainly want a different future from Grassroots Out. It doesn't mean that either organisation is telling a whopper of a lie.

    Both organisations agree that they want Britain to leave the EU, even though they have different visions of the future.
This discussion has been closed.

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