politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks says George Osborne’s star is dimming

watford30 said:

MikeK said:

Breaking: Car Bomb explodes in Berlin. (BBC)

1 dead. Germany has a history of terrorist activity. The Red Army Faction are believed to have sprung back to life this year.

Tissue_Price said:

Tremendous - a by-election for a seat in our legislature with an electorate of 3 (three).

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/publications-records/House-of-Lords-Publications/By-elections/Lords-notice-hereditary-peers-by-election-Feb-2016-Avebury.pdf

MaxPB said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I wonder just how many of those for remain or leave are genuinely conflicted and will accept the will of the people without recourse to acrimony to the losing side. I am in the remain camp since Mark Carney’s evidence to the Treasury select committee but I do have moments of doubt, largely induced by my hatred of Brussels and the likes of the non elected Eurocrats like Junckers and Schulz. I may well change my mind and vote to leave if an honest case is put forward by leave accepting that we will have some contribution to make and that we will have to accept free movement of labour. However, irrespective of the final outcome I do not see David Cameron leaving the Government as he is the only politician remotely suitable to preside over a unity cabinet, post referendum. He is not in a contest with Boris or anyone else for Prime Minister as he is clearly standing down in the next few years. There are some who want David Cameron to go as they simply do not like him or more likely think it will aid their own political views, especially labour and lid dem supporters. I believe remain have not made a strong enough case at present but in my opinion the open debates and televised programmes due from April on will have a substantial impact on voters’ minds and in my case will confirm my decision one way or another.

If you are in the remain camp because of what Mark Carney said then I suggest you actually listen more closely. Everything he said suggested that the EU has been good for us in the past, but he gave literally no guarantees that it would continue to be good for us in the future. Since the referendum is about the direction of our country for the next 20-30 years you shouldn't base your decision on what the EU has done in the past. Look at the EU for what it really is and the direction of travel. Our non-EU trade is growing at a long run average of 4% per year and our EU trade is shrinking at a long run average of 2% per year. Carney is a smart guy and the fact that he didn't say that our future within the EU will be as good as it has been is quite telling.

Tissue_Price said:

Tremendous - a by-election for a seat in our legislature with an electorate of 3 (three).

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/publications-records/House-of-Lords-Publications/By-elections/Lords-notice-hereditary-peers-by-election-Feb-2016-Avebury.pdf

Morris_Dancer said:

Utterly OT, but a piece well worth reading about domestic violence against men:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/why-female-violence-against-men-is-societys-last-great-taboo/

A minor point, but worth noting that Morgan (lambasted yesterday here for generally being rubbish) is apparently pouring £80m into a campaign against violence faced by women, but ManKind (for male domestic abuse victims) is having to close its helpline because it couldn't raise £45,000.

Edited extra bit: also, the wanker wanting to ban the 'racist' Orient Express refuses to condemn ISIS, because that would be Islamophobic.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2794183/national-union-students-refuses-condemn-isis-fears-islamophobic.html

Hopefully that'll help lily-livered decision-makers grow a backbone and keep the Orient Express ball.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

Tremendous - a by-election for a seat in our legislature with an electorate of 3 (three).

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/publications-records/House-of-Lords-Publications/By-elections/Lords-notice-hereditary-peers-by-election-Feb-2016-Avebury.pdf

Under AV ?

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I wonder just how many of those for remain or leave are genuinely conflicted and will accept the will of the people without recourse to acrimony to the losing side.

On here and among the political commentariat? Not as many as the public at large.

I was a reluctant remain for a long time, and can admit that as I have a spine like jelly a part of me is worried about the uncertainties of Leave and a guilty part would not mind being able to vote the way I want, Leave, and not suffer any potential consequences as a result, and part of the reason I admit it is to shore up my resolve to vote Leave. But for acrimony it's not a problem for me - the worse acrimony appears to be an internal Tory battle of which the EU is the largest element but not the entirety of it (for some at least, there are die hard Cameroons angry with him over this), and at the end of the day I think no matter the tactics of either side, there are enough voices being heard putting out the proper arguments that if we vote Remain the only people to 'blame' are the public themselves, and that's not a position I would want to be in, being angry at the public as a whole.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

However, irrespective of the final outcome I do not see David Cameron leaving the Government as he is the only politician remotely suitable to preside over a unity cabinet, post referendum. He is not in a contest with Boris or anyone else for Prime Minister as he is clearly standing down in the next few years. There are some who want David Cameron to go as they simply do not like him or more likely think it will aid their own political views, especially labour and lid dem supporters. .

On this though I don't know that I can agree - Cameron might be the most suitable to reside over a unity Cabinet, but if the campaign gets any more poisonous, a unity cabinet might not be an option. That he is not personally standing again is immaterial, as he is crucial to the contest of those who will be PM after him, and when that will be, so that some people as you say want him to go simply as they do not like him or think it will aid their politics is pretty relevant when combined with the demands that will occur for him to go if Leave wins from more than the usual suspects. It's too much to withstand, I think.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, yeah, it really pisses me off too. Tend not to tweet about politics (a 140 character medium is ill-suited to it, I think), but had to RT that link.

Incidentally, what's the name of the government/charity PR campaign about how coercion in relationships is wrong? It seems every instance appears to be assuming a male perpetrator and female victim.

FrancisUrquhart said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

JosiasJessop said:

nigel4england said:

We are still looking for someone to make a positive case for Remain, Alistair was asked but hasn't done so, why don't you have a go?

Because as I've said passim, I'm probably going to vote leave.

My reasoning is simple: I see leaving as inevitable in the medium- or long- term unless we join the Euro, which is something I don't want to do. If the EU had made genuine moves towards a two-speed EU, where members outside the EZ were treated fairly, I would vote remain.

But I can't see Cameron's renegotiation has got that (and I didn't expect it to), and the general mood music from the EU is against it. I don't want to head where they're heading.

So if it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well It were done quickly, and I'll vote leave. But that doesn't stop me from criticising leave when they make crummy arguments, which is sadly all too frequent.

The deal specified no ever closer union and there was an explicit and mutual ez/non-ez non-discriminatory clause.

What else would you have had them include?

Stronger guarantees. Leaving aside the wording of these clauses in the deal (in which I agree and disagree with some of what Mr Tyndall (I think) said), the EU has a track record of ignoring or working around such deals (and even referenda) if they get in the way of greater integration.

Juncker even admitted this during the negotiating, when he said there is the flexibility within the EU to have countries to move forward to ever closer union at different speeds...

There is no doubt in my mind, that a vote for remain is not a vote for the status quo, it is a vote to continue along to path to ever closer union.

Pro_Rata said:

And perhaps make sure the Northern Powerhouse represents something more than vapour.

I actually thought some form of HS3 was a near necessity to get the best out of a completed HS2, (by which I mean HS2 once it has struck North once up the east coast to Glasgow) even before plans were announced . HS3 at that point turns HS2 from an Any <-> London railway into an Any <-> Any railway (Manchester->Nottingham, Liverpool->Glasgow via Newcastle anyone?).

In fact, the bit of HS2 that begins to look a bit dodgy at that point HS3 is plumbed in is the Manchester -> Birmingham section - for a hit of perhaps 15 minutes on Manchester to Birmingham and points south journey times (and, yes, I know, slower to London, aaargh!!!) - you could scrap that section and go a decent way to actually funding this Pennine tunnel towards Liverpool into reality at full HS spec.

There are some pretty tantalising glimpses of what the Pennine tunnel thinking is already in discussion docs so far, from the connection into HS2 around Thorpe Hesley just north of Sheffield, possible synergies by building motorway and rail as a single construction project, to the slightly odd possibility of the through route to Liverpool going via Manchester Airport with central Manchester as a branch (shown on some schematics, but I could just be reading too much into that).

But you'd still be able to get from Manchester and Liverpool to anywhere pretty damn quickly, even if not in the straightest ever line.

Pulpstar said:

Plato_Says said:

YouGov
Donald Trump is now supported by a majority of Republican primary voters nationwide – https://t.co/fCtQPrTT8n https://t.co/pNmKpGiB4X

It was always going to be either Trump or Cruz, but Cruz is probably a bit too right wing to win in November.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I wonder just how many of those for remain or leave are genuinely conflicted and will accept the will of the people without recourse to acrimony to the losing side.

On here and among the political commentariat? Not as many as the public at large.

I was a reluctant remain for a long time, and can admit that as I have a spine like jelly a part of me is worried about the uncertainties of Leave and a guilty part would not mind being able to vote the way I want, Leave, and not suffer any potential consequences as a result, and part of the reason I admit it is to shore up my resolve to vote Leave. But for acrimony it's not a problem for me - the worse acrimony appears to be an internal Tory battle of which the EU is the largest element but not the entirety of it (for some at least, there are die hard Cameroons angry with him over this), and at the end of the day I think no matter the tactics of either side, there are enough voices being heard putting out the proper arguments that if we vote Remain the only people to 'blame' are the public themselves, and that's not a position I would want to be in, being angry at the public as a whole.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

However, irrespective of the final outcome I do not see David Cameron leaving the Government as he is the only politician remotely suitable to preside over a unity cabinet, post referendum. He is not in a contest with Boris or anyone else for Prime Minister as he is clearly standing down in the next few years. There are some who want David Cameron to go as they simply do not like him or more likely think it will aid their own political views, especially labour and lid dem supporters. .

On this though I don't know that I can agree - Cameron might be the most suitable to reside over a unity Cabinet, but if the campaign gets any more poisonous, a unity cabinet might not be an option. That he is not personally standing again is immaterial, as he is crucial to the contest of those who will be PM after him, and when that will be, so that some people as you say want him to go simply as they do not like him or think it will aid their politics is pretty relevant when combined with the demands that will occur for him to go if Leave wins from more than the usual suspects. It's too much to withstand, I think.

I think you demonstrate the difficulties we all have with this decision and the only redeeming feature as far as I can see is that 23rd June is not far away and there will be 4 years for the Conservative party to resolve it's issues and get on governing the country. At 72 years I finally joined the Conservative party last week.

Morris_Dancer said:

Utterly OT, but a piece well worth reading about domestic violence against men:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/why-female-violence-against-men-is-societys-last-great-taboo/

A minor point, but worth noting that Morgan (lambasted yesterday here for generally being rubbish) is apparently pouring £80m into a campaign against violence faced by women, but ManKind (for male domestic abuse victims) is having to close its helpline because it couldn't raise £45,000.

Edited extra bit: also, the wanker wanting to ban the 'racist' Orient Express refuses to condemn ISIS, because that would be Islamophobic.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2794183/national-union-students-refuses-condemn-isis-fears-islamophobic.html

Hopefully that'll help lily-livered decision-makers grow a backbone and keep the Orient Express ball.

JosiasJessop said:

Pro_Rata said:

And perhaps make sure the Northern Powerhouse represents something more than vapour.

I actually thought some form of HS3 was a near necessity to get the best out of a completed HS2, (by which I mean HS2 once it has struck North once up the east coast to Glasgow) even before plans were announced . HS3 at that point turns HS2 from an Any <-> London railway into an Any <-> Any railway (Manchester->Nottingham, Liverpool->Glasgow via Newcastle anyone?).

In fact, the bit of HS2 that begins to look a bit dodgy at that point HS3 is plumbed in is the Manchester -> Birmingham section - for a hit of perhaps 15 minutes on Manchester to Birmingham and points south journey times (and, yes, I know, slower to London, aaargh!!!) - you could scrap that section and go a decent way to actually funding this Pennine tunnel towards Liverpool into reality at full HS spec.

There are some pretty tantalising glimpses of what the Pennine tunnel thinking is already in discussion docs so far, from the connection into HS2 around Thorpe Hesley just north of Sheffield, possible synergies by building motorway and rail as a single construction project, to the slightly odd possibility of the through route to Liverpool going via Manchester Airport with central Manchester as a branch (shown on some schematics, but I could just be reading too much into that).

But you'd still be able to get from Manchester and Liverpool to anywhere pretty damn quickly, even if not in the straightest ever line.

I might be misunderstanding you, but surely HS2 will not be going north of Manchester / Leeds (aside from link lines to ECML / WCML), although classic-compatible trains will be running from further north and onto HS2.

That's interesting thanks. Are any of the discusssion docs you refer to public available?

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Plato_Says said:

YouGov
Donald Trump is now supported by a majority of Republican primary voters nationwide – https://t.co/fCtQPrTT8n https://t.co/pNmKpGiB4X

It was always going to be either Trump or Cruz, but Cruz is probably a bit too right wing to win in November.

President Donald Trump knows how to make America great: deal with strength or get crushed every time.

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Plato_Says said:

YouGov
Donald Trump is now supported by a majority of Republican primary voters nationwide – https://t.co/fCtQPrTT8n https://t.co/pNmKpGiB4X

It was always going to be either Trump or Cruz, but Cruz is probably a bit too right wing to win in November.

President Donald Trump knows how to make America great: deal with strength or get crushed every time.

He's impressed me in the debates by going so completely off book. South Carolina was the pinnacle I think...

Defending planned parenthood, attacking Dubya over 9-11 and Iraq, not being worried about kipping what many see was a critical debate (Short term perhaps harmful, long term has worked out fine). He's a politician dealing in conviction, not the minutiae of game theory that alot of others (See Ed Miliband here) do - particularly in debates do.

The other thing I note is that he is leading the narrative ~ the other candidates all remarkably are talking about a wall now, and alot of his positions are not just politically convienient (Abortion might be the big exception to win the GOP primary) but are perhaps what he genuinely believes.

Some of his more 'left wing' (Trade, women's health, healthcare) stances vs GOP norm are the most interesting for me.

By ignoring all the minutiae of game theory x, y, z he's actually ending up in a very strong position.

"He's breaking all the rules" is a cliche, but it is true in this case.

kle4 said:

logical_song said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, Charles is a 'trendy' royal. His desire to be Defender of Faith rather than the Faith, let alone his numerous utterances, are proof of that.

Cameron's part of the metropolitan consensus in certain areas. Global warming and overseas aid are the most obvious examples.

Who cares whether it's leftist or rightist, who cares whether it's a metropolitan consensus, AGW is a scientific consensus. It's stupid to ignore that.
If Prince Charles supports the scientific consensus then he's right on that. However he also supports homeopathy which has no basis in science and he's absolutely wrong on that.

Quite. I don't know why the debate is so politicised - why do the greens need to be so far left on everything after all. Or so they presented - but it doesn't need to be. I know people do dispute the science, but a lot of the opposition us expressed in emotional and political terms, so that seems the most fundamental aspect for many it would seem.

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Plato_Says said:

YouGov
Donald Trump is now supported by a majority of Republican primary voters nationwide – https://t.co/fCtQPrTT8n https://t.co/pNmKpGiB4X

It was always going to be either Trump or Cruz, but Cruz is probably a bit too right wing to win in November.

President Donald Trump knows how to make America great: deal with strength or get crushed every time.

He's impressed me in the debates by going so completely off book. South Carolina was the pinnacle I think...

Defending planned parenthood, attacking Dubya over 9-11 and Iraq, not being worried about kipping what many see was a critical debate (Short term perhaps harmful, long term has worked out fine). He's a politician dealing in conviction, not the minutiae of game theory that alot of others (See Ed Miliband here) do - particularly in debates do.

The other thing I note is that he is leading the narrative ~ the other candidates all remarkably are talking about a wall now, and alot of his positions are not just politically convienient (Abortion might be the big exception to win the GOP primary) but are perhaps what he genuinely believes.

Some of his more 'left wing' (Trade, women's health, healthcare) stances vs GOP norm are the most interesting for me.

By ignoring all the minutiae of game theory x, y, z he's actually ending up in a very strong position.

"He's breaking all the rules" is a cliche, but it is true in this case.

Richard_Nabavi said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

In my experience most of the mutual funds want to leave the EEA to escape EU regulations. The only parts of the City that need facing down are the big banks.

Citation needed.

The complete opposite is true, I believe:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/e90885d8-d3db-11e5-829b-8564e7528e54.html#axzz42y5SnqTW

The exceptions tend to be the smaller hedge funds.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dave saying it is the patriotic thing is to remain in the EU

NickPalmer said:

kle4 said:

logical_song said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, Charles is a 'trendy' royal. His desire to be Defender of Faith rather than the Faith, let alone his numerous utterances, are proof of that.

Cameron's part of the metropolitan consensus in certain areas. Global warming and overseas aid are the most obvious examples.

Who cares whether it's leftist or rightist, who cares whether it's a metropolitan consensus, AGW is a scientific consensus. It's stupid to ignore that.
If Prince Charles supports the scientific consensus then he's right on that. However he also supports homeopathy which has no basis in science and he's absolutely wrong on that.

Quite. I don't know why the debate is so politicised - why do the greens need to be so far left on everything after all. Or so they presented - but it doesn't need to be. I know people do dispute the science, but a lot of the opposition us expressed in emotional and political terms, so that seems the most fundamental aspect for many it would seem.

It's largely a British thing - the Greens in other countries are often much less left-wing. That's why a Green leader has just been elected in Baden-Wuerttemburg, which is the industrial heartland, full of manufacturers and their employees - they see the Greens there as safe pairs of hands. The French have two Green parties, a centrist and a leftist one, and that reappears at European Parliament level too. There are conservative greens around too, who see preserving the countryside and environment as a natural part of a general approach of keeping good things and being wary of sudden change - Stanley Johnson (Boris's dad) is a good example (and incidentally a keen Remain supporter). Conversely there are left-wingers who are very scornful of environmentalism - "bourgeois preoccupation, never mind the bloody trees, what about the workers"?

Why Britain's Greens are especially left wing I'm not sure - perhaps just an accident that a small party can be dominated by the most dynamic element, and that happens in this case to be left-wing.

Casino_Royale said:

It is. He's complex. Remains to be seen if he'll win, though.

Also, Rubio (your favourite) has impressed me more recently. Very good interview posted on thread last night where I thought he sounded measured and sensible and far less robotic, more human, than usual.

Scott_P said:

Nobody else betting on Cheltenham?

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

It is. He's complex. Remains to be seen if he'll win, though.

Also, Rubio (your favourite) has impressed me more recently. Very good interview posted on thread last night where I thought he sounded measured and sensible and far less robotic, more human, than usual.

I think Rubio is done now, after covering him at ~ 17s (Hah !). My main annoyance with him has been that I like hassle free winners in political betting and his backers have caused trouble on Betfair way beyond his normal price.

Of course it's provided some magnificent opportunities to take advantage of, but it's been irritating and a bit worrying at times.

If only I had the courage of my convictions !

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, your 15.30 pick reminds me of Machiavelli.

Pulpstar said:

Whats the reasoning with Mister Miyagi ?

Pro_Rata said:

JosiasJessop said:

Pro_Rata said:

And perhaps make sure the Northern Powerhouse represents something more than vapour.

I actually thought some form of HS3 was a near necessity to get the best out of a completed HS2, (by which I mean HS2 once it has struck North once up the east coast to Glasgow) even before plans were announced . HS3 at that point turns HS2 from an Any <-> London railway into an Any <-> Any railway (Manchester->Nottingham, Liverpool->Glasgow via Newcastle anyone?).

In fact, the bit of HS2 that begins to look a bit dodgy at that point HS3 is plumbed in is the Manchester -> Birmingham section - for a hit of perhaps 15 minutes on Manchester to Birmingham and points south journey times (and, yes, I know, slower to London, aaargh!!!) - you could scrap that section and go a decent way to actually funding this Pennine tunnel towards Liverpool into reality at full HS spec.

There are some pretty tantalising glimpses of what the Pennine tunnel thinking is already in discussion docs so far, from the connection into HS2 around Thorpe Hesley just north of Sheffield, possible synergies by building motorway and rail as a single construction project, to the slightly odd possibility of the through route to Liverpool going via Manchester Airport with central Manchester as a branch (shown on some schematics, but I could just be reading too much into that).

But you'd still be able to get from Manchester and Liverpool to anywhere pretty damn quickly, even if not in the straightest ever line.

I might be misunderstanding you, but surely HS2 will not be going north of Manchester / Leeds (aside from link lines to ECML / WCML), although classic-compatible trains will be running from further north and onto HS2.

That's interesting thanks. Are any of the discusssion docs you refer to public available?

Yeah, there have been a few reports from the joint northern councils, and indeed there are HS2 discussion docs mooting the eventual route North via stops in Teesside (probably a parkway), Newcastle, Edinburgh and Glasgow. I don't have any to hand and I'm posting from memory, but I'll try and dig out some links later on if you're interested.

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dave saying it is the patriotic thing is to remain in the EU

Patriotic for which country ?

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

France.

They've got all those farmers to subsidise with wine nobody drinks.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Max, I saw some of his speech. It was about as persuasive as a phone call from Blair offering to sell me PPI.

Plato_Says said:

ABC
NEW: Donald Trump wins Northern Mariana Islands Republican caucuses, according to N. Mariana Islands GOP, snagging nine pledged delegates.