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edited March 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks says George Osborne’s star is dimming

The last few months have not been good for George Osborne.  When he rose to give the last budget in July, he looked like a man ready to take over the top job.  Following the general election he had been appointed First Secretary of State, recognising his place as second among equals.  He had carved out a distinct policy agenda of his own within government on the northern powerhouse.  The economy was…

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  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    A very good article. Expect waves of abuse from those anxious to turn the Conservatives into the right wing equivalent to Corbyn' s Labour party. While it may be an outlier the latest INC should be a wake up call to the Tory right. Sadly I doubt it as their hatred for Cameron and Osborne is quite intense.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    edited March 2016


    Edit INC should, of course, be ICM - the curse of course of predictive text :)
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    What this means is simply that he should do his day job to the best of his ability.

    Amen.

    What is drilled into you time after time, lesson after lesson, when learning to be a pilot is 'Fly the plane' - yes, there will be distractions and real emergencies, but NONE of them are ever as important as 'flying the plane' - Osborne has ONE job to do above all others, if he can't do that well, he doesn't deserve the top job.

    Meanwhile, if Boris is such an asset for LEAVE and 'PM in Waiting' why isn't he LEADING it?

    Not up to the job?
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,263
    Absolutely correct. But he'll never do it. Before 2010 Osborne kept saying that he wanted to be the most hated man in Britain, but every time he does something vaguely unpopular he backs down. I simply don't think he can deal with the dislike people have for him.

    That would of course be a worse problem if he were to become PM, as a certain Dr Brown found out the hard way...
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    He’s not got a particularly likeable persona, seeming cold and arrogant

    FWIW, my folks have met both Cameron and Osborne on multiple occasions. Osborne is far nicer and more charming than Cameron in person.

    @CarlottaVance what is your obsession with whether Boris Johnson is leading leave or not? Of course he's an asset to the campaign, but Gove and Stuart are co-chairing the organisation. I personally think this is a better choice.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited March 2016
    Charles said:

    @CarlottaVance what is your obsession with whether Boris Johnson is leading leave or not? Of course he's an asset to the campaign, but Gove and Stuart are co-chairing the organisation. I personally think this is a better choice.

    If the man aspires to lead the country, surely leading the campaign to leave the EU would be a reasonable audition for the job?

    Neither Gove nor Stuart are (widely) spoken of as 'Prime Ministerial' - but yet they have taken the leadership roles......

    FWIW I think Gove & Stuart much better co-chairs than Boris ever would be - but then I don't think Boris is remotely up to the top job....
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    CarlottaVance said:

    Charles said:

    @CarlottaVance what is your obsession with whether Boris Johnson is leading leave or not? Of course he's an asset to the campaign, but Gove and Stuart are co-chairing the organisation. I personally think this is a better choice.

    If the man aspires to lead the country, surely leading the campaign to leave the EU would be a reasonable audition for the job?

    Neither Gove nor Stuart are (widely) spoken of as 'Prime Ministerial' - but yet they have taken the leadership roles......

    FWIW I think Gove & Stuart much better co-chairs than Boris ever would be - but then I don't think Boris is remotely up to the top job....
    I don't support Boris for PM (or leader of the Conservatives either).

    But you are changing the subject: your original contention was that it was odd that "if he's such an asset" why he wasn't leading the campaign.

    I think it's great that Leave has multiple talented individuals at the forefront of the campaign rather than relying on one mendacious individual (and Peter Mandelson)
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ElectionsEtc: Our first #EUref forecast: 87% chance of Remain winning. @StephenDFisher & @AlanJRenwick explain: https://t.co/BOtOO6CXBC
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Great article and analysis Alastair, particularly your emboldened bit on doing the job well.

    The only bit I disagree with is your final paragraph where you suggest he campaigns hard for Remain. That'll be toxic for him to lead strongly on that and his chances with internal party politics. He isn't granted the leeway that Cameron is, for example, and it's already started to damage his image.

    The best strategy for Osborne is just to campaign for Remain softly, and point out the economic risks to the UK and his deficit reduction plans of a Leave vote, but otherwise signal an ambivalence about the EU and desire to reach a sensible accommodation with the rest of the party afterwards, no matter what happens.
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,263
    edited March 2016
    Incidentally, someone on the last thread posted a letter from a teacher to Nicky Morgan about subordinating conjunctions. I think actually this is probably a true story, for two reasons:

    1) although it is not required for younger children to know the technical grammatical terms, the guidance is usually so unclear (indeed ungrammatical) that it might not be obvious to a horrendously overworked teacher that the children should only learn how to use them, not what to call them;

    2) it sounds like the sort of cretinous mistake the DfE's civil servants, most of whom have a less than perfect grasp of English, would make. We've had grammatical mistakes in literacy tests, illiterate drafts of the National Curriculum and guidance demanding the chronic misuse of exclamation marks. Now we have a muddle over technical terms that enforces guidelines debunked in 1784.

    I have long taken the view that the greatest obstacle to improving literacy among children is not the poor quality of teachers (although in many cases that is definitely a problem too) but the abysmal quality of the civil servants who rule our profession. If the DfE were abolished, it's hard not to imagine we would see a radical improvement in the nation's schools.

    EDIT - see here for a very good analysis of the problem:

    https://www.tes.com/news/school-news/breaking-views/one-primary-teachers-open-letter-government-standards-expected-are
  • OldKingCole
    OldKingCole Posts: 35,274
    Charles said:

    He’s not got a particularly likeable persona, seeming cold and arrogant

    FWIW, my folks have met both Cameron and Osborne on multiple occasions. Osborne is far nicer and more charming than Cameron in person.

    Quite possible that both Mr M and Mr C are right.
  • Innocent_Abroad
    Innocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    GO reckons the next round of cuts amount to 0.5% of Government expenditure. I think "loose change" is a reasonable description, given that the proportion is an estimate, and we all know how accurate estimates of Government income and expenditure are. (And that is not a criticism of those who make them, rather an acknowledgement that Governments and households are different kettles of fish.)
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Casino_Royale said:

    Great article and analysis Alastair, particularly your emboldened bit on doing the job well.

    The only bit I disagree with is your final paragraph where you suggest he campaigns hard for Remain. That'll be toxic for him to lead strongly on that and his chances with internal party politics. He isn't granted the leeway that Cameron is, for example, and it's already started to damage his image.

    The best strategy for Osborne is just to campaign for Remain softly, and point out the economic risks to the UK and his deficit reduction plans of a Leave vote, but otherwise signal an ambivalence about the EU and desire to reach a sensible accommodation with the rest of the party afterwards, no matter what happens.

    I agree with Casino. Osborne should just focus on being CofE. If he campaigns hard for Remain he just destroys support inside the party. STFU is best. But probably too late for Osborne.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    felix said:

    A very good article. Expect waves of abuse from those anxious to turn the Conservatives into the right wing equivalent to Corbyn' s Labour party. While it may be an outlier the latest INC should be a wake up call to the Tory right. Sadly I doubt it as their hatred for Cameron and Osborne is quite intense.

    The latest ICM should tell Cameron and Osborne that they must stop blue on blue attacks as they no longer have a massive lead on Corbyn.
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,263
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    felix said:

    A very good article. Expect waves of abuse from those anxious to turn the Conservatives into the right wing equivalent to Corbyn' s Labour party. While it may be an outlier the latest INC should be a wake up call to the Tory right. Sadly I doubt it as their hatred for Cameron and Osborne is quite intense.

    The latest ICM should tell Cameron and Osborne that they must stop blue on blue attacks as they no longer have a massive lead on Corbyn.
    Even ICM admit this poll is almost certainly a rogue. Even if it were not, Labour need to be well ahead to draw level in terms of seats.

    That being said, you are right that they must be more careful about infighting and need to be a lot less complacent in their formulation of policy - if only for the good of the country.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Scott_P said:

    @ElectionsEtc: Our first #EUref forecast: 87% chance of Remain winning. @StephenDFisher & @AlanJRenwick explain: https://t.co/BOtOO6CXBC

    If the raw data that goes in from skewed samples is the main foundation of a model, you end up with this;

    image
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Good morning, everyone.

    Agree entirely that Remain is in a strong position. Not sure Osborne campaigning hard for it would help either Remain or Osborne.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Government announces plans to stop people exhaling:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35809144
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    felix said:

    A very good article. Expect waves of abuse from those anxious to turn the Conservatives into the right wing equivalent to Corbyn' s Labour party. While it may be an outlier the latest INC should be a wake up call to the Tory right. Sadly I doubt it as their hatred for Cameron and Osborne is quite intense.

    The latest ICM should tell Cameron and Osborne that they must stop blue on blue attacks as they no longer have a massive lead on Corbyn.
    QED - message heard but you didn't get it.
  • NorfolkTilIDie
    NorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    felix said:

    A very good article. Expect waves of abuse from those anxious to turn the Conservatives into the right wing equivalent to Corbyn' s Labour party. While it may be an outlier the latest INC should be a wake up call to the Tory right. Sadly I doubt it as their hatred for Cameron and Osborne is quite intense.

    No fan of the Tory Right, but seems strangd to blame poor position of the Tories in the last poll on anyone other than the current leadership.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Since we have been advised on PB that GO is a 'near perfect chancellor' then sticking to the day job ought to be his best strategy.
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Government announces plans to stop people exhaling:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35809144

    Hopefully ministers will lead by example on this.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    As Tories go, I quite like George. Not dull. Seemingly intent in following Brown's career trajectory.
  • Innocent_Abroad
    Innocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Government announces plans to stop people exhaling:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35809144

    Hopefully ministers will lead by example on this.
    Why should they, when we Peebies don't?

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    US General reckons if we vote to Leave that could damage NATO:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35808955

    But he doesn't have any actual arguments for it doing so (in the article, at least). That's just wibble about 'unity' over the migrant crisis.

    Hmm. Did the US and others kick up this much fuss when Scotland had its referendum? I can't recall.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Government announces plans to stop people exhaling:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35809144

    http://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/709514777480073216/photo/1
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    edited March 2016
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Government announces plans to stop people exhaling:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35809144

    Hopefully ministers will lead by example on this.
    Why should they, when we Peebies don't?

    Peebies don't announce plans.
    Government does.
  • dugarbandier
    dugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    chestnut said:


    If the raw data that goes in from skewed samples is the main foundation of a model, you end up with this;

    image

    even with perfect data a 94 % chance of no Con Majority means you should expect the Majority slightly more than 1 time in 20. Doesn't mean the model has failed, necessarily.
  • Innocent_Abroad
    Innocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Government announces plans to stop people exhaling:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35809144

    Hopefully ministers will lead by example on this.
    Why should they, when we Peebies don't?

    Peebies don't announce plans.
    Government does.
    I see people announcing plans on here every day. Won't vouch for them, natch...

  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    chestnut said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ElectionsEtc: Our first #EUref forecast: 87% chance of Remain winning. @StephenDFisher & @AlanJRenwick explain: https://t.co/BOtOO6CXBC

    If the raw data that goes in from skewed samples is the main foundation of a model, you end up with this;

    image
    Stephen Fisher was actually right in 2013 and early 2014 but then progressively converged on the herd average in the final year before GE2015 day itself as the polls themselves did.

    On the other hand, L&N stuck by the historical performance of first term governments in the UK with a more popular PM/leader and decent record on the economy, rather than raw poll data, and so consistently estimated a fair chance of a Con majority.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    felix said:

    A very good article. Expect waves of abuse from those anxious to turn the Conservatives into the right wing equivalent to Corbyn' s Labour party. While it may be an outlier the latest INC should be a wake up call to the Tory right. Sadly I doubt it as their hatred for Cameron and Osborne is quite intense.

    The latest ICM should tell Cameron and Osborne that they must stop blue on blue attacks as they no longer have a massive lead on Corbyn.
    It is 4 years to the next GE, so probably the best time to bang on about Europe and knock lumps out of each other. If it was a year to go then probably less so.

    Imagine how Labour could do if they had a vaguely competent leader!
  • dugarbandier
    dugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Government announces plans to stop people exhaling:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35809144

    http://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/709514777480073216/photo/1
    The Independent will almost certainly be reducing its own emissions
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    felix said:

    A very good article. Expect waves of abuse from those anxious to turn the Conservatives into the right wing equivalent to Corbyn' s Labour party. While it may be an outlier the latest INC should be a wake up call to the Tory right. Sadly I doubt it as their hatred for Cameron and Osborne is quite intense.

    No fan of the Tory Right, but seems strangd to blame poor position of the Tories in the last poll on anyone other than the current leadership.
    not if you have the vaguest understanding of how the current leadership made the party electable to day by veering to the centre. The voters are very unforgiving of political parties which eschew the centre ground for their pet foibles. Ask Jereny Corbyn.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited March 2016
    'Leave' looking for creative agency. Having just seen an early effort for 'Remain' by Adam and Eve it might be time to panic. It was pathetic


    http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/vote-leave-seeks-creative-agency/1385970
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Meeks, oh noes!

    Any chance of a link to the Independent's article on snow becoming a thing of the past?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Morris_Dancer said:

    US General reckons if we vote to Leave that could damage NATO:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35808955

    But he doesn't have any actual arguments for it doing so (in the article, at least). That's just wibble about 'unity' over the migrant crisis.

    Hmm. Did the US and others kick up this much fuss when Scotland had its referendum? I can't recall.

    If one reads it, it's clear his broader concern is that the UK leaving could precipitate the break up of the entire EU.

    So his argument is actually fairly little to do with us, other than begging us not to rock the boat.
  • Wanderer
    Wanderer Posts: 3,838
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Meeks, oh noes!

    Any chance of a link to the Independent's article on snow becoming a thing of the past?

    You're confident that it won't happen?
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The Telegraph article is well worth reading.
    We do not use polls to predict the outcome of an election or referendum.

    The interest in this ORB poll is not what it says about the vote for Leave or Remain (with three months to go), but rather the factors that will influence how people vote, or indeed if they turn out and vote at all.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/12194138/Remain-or-leave-It-all-rests-on-the-risk-factor.html
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Meeks, oh noes!

    Any chance of a link to the Independent's article on snow becoming a thing of the past?

    No, but I've got this link for you:

    https://xkcd.com/1321/
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Good piece by Alastair. I expect that his ideal will be to combine the 2 and give a budget speech that shows not just his technical competence but his vision for Britain for the remainder of this Parliament and beyond. He is better placed to do this than any of his contemporaries and can regain the initiative that he has seemed to lose.

    The problem is this is a very difficult budget. Even with the extra money found at the time of the Autumn statement he is on a very tight and narrow trajectory towards a balanced budget by the end of the Parliament. Any adverse impacts, such as even a modest slowing of the economy, and he will fail. I expect him to say that voting for Leave will make the task of removing the deficit completely impossible, that the short term effects of Leave will increase the deficit by knocking GDP by at least 2%. As Alastair says he has burnt his boats with the Leave contingent anyway and it is probably true.

    I would like to see plans to break up our TBTF Banks, especially Lloyds and RBS, to combine IT and NI into a single tax and to prioritise capital spending on infrastructure over current spending in the difficult years ahead. But I fear this, once again, may not be the year for such difficult steps.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Government announces plans to stop people exhaling:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35809144

    http://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/709514777480073216/photo/1
    Countries like the UK, Germany and France will eventually get their houses in order but there's no chance of global progress unless the US, China, Brazil and India are on board.

    I'm increasingly angry at the stupidity of the ecoleftists on this, who have so radically politicised the issue of climate change (with a combination of ultra-internationalism, rampant anti-capitalism, neo-socialist and identity politics writ-large) that there's virtually no chance of winning over a cross party consensus across the political Right in many of those countries.

    We will all probably pay a price.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Nice map

    Paul Swinney
    Which cities will be most impacted by next month's minimum wage rise? #Budget16 #LivingWage https://t.co/iWgdqY65ct https://t.co/lf1FUPSH1i
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Matt is excellent today

    Bruno Waterfield
    Ha. Matt via @TelegraphNews https://t.co/d7PFPMCq3b
  • Wanderer
    Wanderer Posts: 3,838
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Government announces plans to stop people exhaling:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35809144

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/709514777480073216/photo/1
    Countries like the UK, Germany and France will eventually get their houses in order but there's no chance of global progress unless the US, China, Brazil and India are on board.

    I'm increasingly angry at the stupidity of the ecoleftists on this, who have so radically politicised the issue of climate change (with a combination of ultra-internationalism, rampant anti-capitalism, neo-socialist and identity politics writ-large) that there's virtually no chance of winning over a cross party consensus across the political Right in many of those countries.

    We will all probably pay a price.
    Hmm. The political right is responsible for itself imo. It isn't forced to take any particular view because left greens say this or that. A right wing environmentalism is eminently possible.
  • Innocent_Abroad
    Innocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Government announces plans to stop people exhaling:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35809144

    http://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/709514777480073216/photo/1
    Countries like the UK, Germany and France will eventually get their houses in order but there's no chance of global progress unless the US, China, Brazil and India are on board.

    I'm increasingly angry at the stupidity of the ecoleftists on this, who have so radically politicised the issue of climate change (with a combination of ultra-internationalism, rampant anti-capitalism, neo-socialist and identity politics writ-large) that there's virtually no chance of winning over a cross party consensus across the political Right in many of those countries.

    We will all probably pay a price.
    Why aren't you (also) angry at the Right for its inability to see past the ecoleftists to the merits of the argument?

  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    LBC
    At 9am: your first chance to #AskBoris since he backed the Brexit. Watch Boris Johnson live https://t.co/ADT89Vf6nw https://t.co/1uWYJTget2
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Wanderer said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Government announces plans to stop people exhaling:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35809144

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/709514777480073216/photo/1
    Countries like the UK, Germany and France will eventually get their houses in order but there's no chance of global progress unless the US, China, Brazil and India are on board.

    I'm increasingly angry at the stupidity of the ecoleftists on this, who have so radically politicised the issue of climate change (with a combination of ultra-internationalism, rampant anti-capitalism, neo-socialist and identity politics writ-large) that there's virtually no chance of winning over a cross party consensus across the political Right in many of those countries.

    We will all probably pay a price.
    Hmm. The political right is responsible for itself imo. It isn't forced to take any particular view because left greens say this or that. A right wing environmentalism is eminently possible.
    Bollocks. Politics matters, and how issues of fundamental importance to the future of mankind are presented to those who support other parties is of crucial importance in building the consensus necessary to solve them.

    I had a couple of these lecturing dickheads preach at me at university in several lectures. One of them felt (and said) that the private motorcar was morally indefensible.

    As a Rightist I walked away with every impression that ecoism meant collectivism, socialism and an objection to individual choice.

    It put me right off. Thankfully, I still have the technical background to understand the science behind it but these idiots polarise the debate and turn off millions.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Charles said:

    He’s not got a particularly likeable persona, seeming cold and arrogant

    FWIW, my folks have met both Cameron and Osborne on multiple occasions. Osborne is far nicer and more charming than Cameron in person.

    @CarlottaVance what is your obsession with whether Boris Johnson is leading leave or not? Of course he's an asset to the campaign, but Gove and Stuart are co-chairing the organisation. I personally think this is a better choice.

    I have shaken Cameron's hand and met Boris briefly both were charming and been to a dinner with Osborne who was a little aloof. Osborne will lose on personality his best bet is to secure a Remain victory, a continued economic recovery and to ensure Boris does not get into the final 2 put to the membership
  • runnymede
    runnymede Posts: 2,536
    If the DfE were abolished, it's hard not to imagine we would see a radical improvement in the nation's schools

    Quite possibly - and you could extend that analysis to a few other departments as well, most notably 'Business, Innovation and Skills'
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Meeks, oh noes!

    Any chance of a link to the Independent's article on snow becoming a thing of the past?

    Looks like they've finally deleted it (at least it's no longer accessible on mobile), although you can still enjoy it via the internet archive.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    DavidL said:

    Good piece by Alastair. I expect that his ideal will be to combine the 2 and give a budget speech that shows not just his technical competence but his vision for Britain for the remainder of this Parliament and beyond. He is better placed to do this than any of his contemporaries and can regain the initiative that he has seemed to lose.

    The problem is this is a very difficult budget. Even with the extra money found at the time of the Autumn statement he is on a very tight and narrow trajectory towards a balanced budget by the end of the Parliament. Any adverse impacts, such as even a modest slowing of the economy, and he will fail. I expect him to say that voting for Leave will make the task of removing the deficit completely impossible, that the short term effects of Leave will increase the deficit by knocking GDP by at least 2%. As Alastair says he has burnt his boats with the Leave contingent anyway and it is probably true.

    I would like to see plans to break up our TBTF Banks, especially Lloyds and RBS, to combine IT and NI into a single tax and to prioritise capital spending on infrastructure over current spending in the difficult years ahead. But I fear this, once again, may not be the year for such difficult steps.

    Problem is NI contributions record is used to determine eligibility for state pensions and contributory JSA
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ydoethur said:

    Absolutely correct. But he'll never do it. Before 2010 Osborne kept saying that he wanted to be the most hated man in Britain, but every time he does something vaguely unpopular he backs down. I simply don't think he can deal with the dislike people have for him.

    That would of course be a worse problem if he were to become PM, as a certain Dr Brown found out the hard way...

    Disagreed. Backing down on unpalatable cuts that don't command the majority of the Commons doesn't mean backing down on every unpopular cut.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Meeks, oh noes!

    Any chance of a link to the Independent's article on snow becoming a thing of the past?

    No, but I've got this link for you:

    https://xkcd.com/1321/
    If the article had put it that way it wouldn't have been so bad, but they upped the hyperbole and said children will never know what snow looks like.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Wanderer said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Government announces plans to stop people exhaling:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35809144

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/709514777480073216/photo/1
    Countries like the UK, Germany and France will eventually get their houses in order but there's no chance of global progress unless the US, China, Brazil and India are on board.

    I'm increasingly angry at the stupidity of the ecoleftists on this, who have so radically politicised the issue of climate change (with a combination of ultra-internationalism, rampant anti-capitalism, neo-socialist and identity politics writ-large) that there's virtually no chance of winning over a cross party consensus across the political Right in many of those countries.

    We will all probably pay a price.
    Hmm. The political right is responsible for itself imo. It isn't forced to take any particular view because left greens say this or that. A right wing environmentalism is eminently possible.
    There are shades of the referendum squabble (debate being too grand a word). Those on the right are irritated beyond measure with those who seek to use global warming as a means of state control over peoples' lives and who are willing to distort or exaggerate their evidence and hide inconsistencies. They then get far more focussed on the dishonesty of particular scientists or public bodies than the underlying realities. This paints them into a "denier" corner instead of putting their own proposals forward to limit change to the climate without the nannyism.

    In the same way Leave is focussed on pointing out the absurdities of some of project Fear than addressing the real issues that departure from the EU would give rise to and their vision as to how to address those problems.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    National - YouGov/Economist :
    Trump 52 .. Cruz 22 .. Kasich 11 .. Rubio 10
    Clinton 52 .. Sanders 40

    National - Morning Consult
    Trump 42 .. Cruz 23 .. Rubio 12 .. Kasich 9

    Florida - Opinion Survey/Fox/Florida Times Union
    Trump 44 ..Rubio 26 .. Cruz 18 .. Kasich 10

    California - NSON/LR
    Trump 38 ..Cruz 22 ..Kasich 20 .. Rubio 10
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    On topic, an excellent article from Alastair, with a very sensible conclusion. Osborne has in the past shown the ability to knuckle down and just do the job - after his 2012 omnishambles, for example. I'm rather less convinced of his ability to do it now given that the leadership changeover could be much more imminent though actually, that ought to reinforce his need to be seen as competent and a safe pair of hands by getting on with his job in hand. As Alastair also says, it also reinforces his need to delay a change at the top and hence he has a big interest in a big Remain win - you'd think he'd want to go out and try to do more to deliver it.

    But that's not what he's doing, hence my TP article yesterday suggesting it's time for him to do something else.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Lord Ashcroft column
    For our latest round of research into how the rest of Europe views the EU, Britain and the prospect of Brexit, Lord Ashcroft Polls visited two southern capitals: Athens and Madrid.
    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/03/lord-ashcroft-germany-and-the-northern-european-countries-are-in-charge-the-view-from-athens-and-madrid.html
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    Charles said:

    He’s not got a particularly likeable persona, seeming cold and arrogant

    FWIW, my folks have met both Cameron and Osborne on multiple occasions. Osborne is far nicer and more charming than Cameron in person.

    @CarlottaVance what is your obsession with whether Boris Johnson is leading leave or not? Of course he's an asset to the campaign, but Gove and Stuart are co-chairing the organisation. I personally think this is a better choice.

    Its the same game everyone is playing. Yesterday we had Nabavi and friends wondering theatrically why people on the leave side were attacking Cameron as supposedly a lot of it wasn't his fault. Now we have CV attacking Boris for not leading Leave even though a presentational role while others look after the detail suits him best. Both sides see value in trying to discredit the main spokesman on their opponent, not exactly a shock.

    Incidentally the role Boris is playing in Leave suggest if he got to No10 he would be a similar style of leader to Cameron. That is to say collegiate and leaving ministers to do their job while he does the presentation.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Charles said:

    He’s not got a particularly likeable persona, seeming cold and arrogant

    FWIW, my folks have met both Cameron and Osborne on multiple occasions. Osborne is far nicer and more charming than Cameron in person.

    That may well be true but hardly anyone will meet either in person so it's how they come across in the media that matters.

    The above also goes for the MPs' votes, as although they will know Osborne in person, they'll also be keenly aware of how the public perceive him.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Plato_Says said:

    LBC
    At 9am: your first chance to #AskBoris since he backed the Brexit. Watch Boris Johnson live https://t.co/ADT89Vf6nw https://t.co/1uWYJTget2

    That's untrue. He was answering questions on Twitter yesterday.
  • Innocent_Abroad
    Innocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    edited March 2016
    Casino_Royale said:

    Wanderer said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Government announces plans to stop people exhaling:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35809144

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/709514777480073216/photo/1
    Countries like the UK, Germany and France will eventually get their houses in order but there's no chance of global progress unless the US, China, Brazil and India are on board.

    I'm increasingly angry at the stupidity of the ecoleftists on this, who have so radically politicised the issue of climate change (with a combination of ultra-internationalism, rampant anti-capitalism, neo-socialist and identity politics writ-large) that there's virtually no chance of winning over a cross party consensus across the political Right in many of those countries.

    We will all probably pay a price.
    Hmm. The political right is responsible for itself imo. It isn't forced to take any particular view because left greens say this or that. A right wing environmentalism is eminently possible.
    Bollocks. Politics matters, and how issues of fundamental importance to the future of mankind are presented to those who support other parties is of crucial importance in building the consensus necessary to solve them.

    I had a couple of these lecturing dickheads preach at me at university in several lectures. One of them felt (and said) that the private motorcar was morally indefensible.

    As a Rightist I walked away with every impression that ecoism meant collectivism, socialism and an objection to individual choice.

    It put me right off. Thankfully, I still have the technical background to understand the science behind it but these idiots polarise the debate and turn off millions.
    Like any right-winger, you're only interested in yourself, when we get down to it.

  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    felix said:

    A very good article. Expect waves of abuse from those anxious to turn the Conservatives into the right wing equivalent to Corbyn' s Labour party. While it may be an outlier the latest INC should be a wake up call to the Tory right. Sadly I doubt it as their hatred for Cameron and Osborne is quite intense.

    No fan of the Tory Right, but seems strangd to blame poor position of the Tories in the last poll on anyone other than the current leadership.
    One should never get too excited about one poll, anyway.

    But, in general, if a party is doing badly, the fault lies with those in charge.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Wanderer, we'll have periods with little snow and periods with much snow. Natural variation in the climate has always happened, and always will.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Meeks, oh noes!

    Any chance of a link to the Independent's article on snow becoming a thing of the past?

    No, but I've got this link for you:

    https://xkcd.com/1321/
    If the article had put it that way it wouldn't have been so bad, but they upped the hyperbole and said children will never know what snow looks like.
    There seems to be a general view in politics that no case can ever be sufficiently overstated.
  • CD13
    CD13 Posts: 6,386
    Good tactics by Labour at the moment ... Lie low and say nuffin. Keep jezza away from the media, and ban all comments on IS, NATO, security and immigration. I'm assuming this is the cunning plan.

    A big gap at the moment for a central party not involved in feuding over Europe. LDs should be showing signs of life but are imitating the Norwegian Blue instead.
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Wanderer, we'll have periods with little snow and periods with much snow. Natural variation in the climate has always happened, and always will.

    Weather will always vary, climate is longer term but it does change and is doing so now - in one direction.
  • Innocent_Abroad
    Innocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Meeks, oh noes!

    Any chance of a link to the Independent's article on snow becoming a thing of the past?

    No, but I've got this link for you:

    https://xkcd.com/1321/
    If the article had put it that way it wouldn't have been so bad, but they upped the hyperbole and said children will never know what snow looks like.
    There seems to be a general view in politics that no case can ever be sufficiently overstated.
    Quite so. Politicians are all struggling to be heard in a crowded room by people with better things to do than listen to them.

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Song, well, yes. As it warmed during the reigns of Caligula and Claudius (and, later, Henry VIII). And cooled a few centuries ago.

    Mr. F, that's the problem. It's politics as much (perhaps more than) science. A popularity contest more than scientific inquiry. Science, after all, welcomes competing theories and begins with scepticism.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Plato_Says said:

    Lord Ashcroft column

    For our latest round of research into how the rest of Europe views the EU, Britain and the prospect of Brexit, Lord Ashcroft Polls visited two southern capitals: Athens and Madrid.
    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/03/lord-ashcroft-germany-and-the-northern-european-countries-are-in-charge-the-view-from-athens-and-madrid.html

    Great article, and quite touching as they struggle to see things from other points of vciew.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    It'll be interesting to see when and if Jezza and Comrades decide to publicly campaign.

    Remain could be disadvantaged if Labour supporters don't think this is their referendum too.
    CD13 said:

    Good tactics by Labour at the moment ... Lie low and say nuffin. Keep jezza away from the media, and ban all comments on IS, NATO, security and immigration. I'm assuming this is the cunning plan.

    A big gap at the moment for a central party not involved in feuding over Europe. LDs should be showing signs of life but are imitating the Norwegian Blue instead.

  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'd suggest Project Fear has tested that to destruction already.
    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Meeks, oh noes!

    Any chance of a link to the Independent's article on snow becoming a thing of the past?

    No, but I've got this link for you:

    https://xkcd.com/1321/
    If the article had put it that way it wouldn't have been so bad, but they upped the hyperbole and said children will never know what snow looks like.
    There seems to be a general view in politics that no case can ever be sufficiently overstated.
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    edited March 2016
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Wanderer, we'll have periods with little snow and periods with much snow. Natural variation in the climate has always happened, and always will.

    Mr Dancer - of course there will be variation in the climate over a shorter timespan but over the long term one fact that cannot be denied - temperatures are going up and significantly so. We've tried to explain this upward trend to natural variation but we can't.

    I know this is a bitter truth to many on here who sprout nonsense such as "AGW trough" etc (not you Mr Dancer) but the facts are as clear as day...
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Wanderer said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Government announces plans to stop people exhaling:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35809144

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/709514777480073216/photo/1
    Countries like the UK, Germany and France will eventually get their houses in order but there's no chance of global progress unless the US, China, Brazil and India are on board.

    I'm increasingly angry at the stupidity of the ecoleftists on this, who have so radically politicised the issue of climate change (with a combination of ultra-internationalism, rampant anti-capitalism, neo-socialist and identity politics writ-large) that there's virtually no chance of winning over a cross party consensus across the political Right in many of those countries.

    We will all probably pay a price.
    Hmm. The political right is responsible for itself imo. It isn't forced to take any particular view because left greens say this or that. A right wing environmentalism is eminently possible.
    Bollocks. Politics matters, and how issues of fundamental importance to the future of mankind are presented to those who support other parties is of crucial importance in building the consensus necessary to solve them.

    I had a couple of these lecturing dickheads preach at me at university in several lectures. One of them felt (and said) that the private motorcar was morally indefensible.

    As a Rightist I walked away with every impression that ecoism meant collectivism, socialism and an objection to individual choice.

    It put me right off. Thankfully, I still have the technical background to understand the science behind it but these idiots polarise the debate and turn off millions.
    Like any right-winger, you're only interested in yourself, when we get down to it.

    How can I put this politely? Fuck off.

    No one cares what you have to say.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    On topic, Alastair's forensic article deserves all the praise it's getting. But I think it's too late for Osborne to get much credit for saying honestly that things are in a mess - he's spent too mny years saying that things were steadily improving. The "why didn't you fix the roof before?" accusation would re-emerge.

    My guess is that he'll put in a number of unpleasant contingency plans, so people can see he's prepared to be tough but won't unless he has to, plus one or two rabbits for now.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. S, we disagree on the span of time that is considered long term.

    I also disagree that climate scientists actually know enough to rule out natural variation. Their repeatedly wrong forecasts (including the 'snow will become a thing of the past' article for the Independent) do not fill me with confidence in their predictive powers.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Good article Alastair, thanks.

    Increasingly confident for Leave in the past 24 hours. Amazed at how many Millennial mates in London are for Leave, and how few adults outside of London support Remain.

    Just not sure the emotional attachment to the EU is what the elite think it is. The Easyjet generation know that if we leave the EU it'll still be a great place for a minibreak.
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    edited March 2016
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. S, we disagree on the span of time that is considered long term.

    I also disagree that climate scientists actually know enough to rule out natural variation. Their repeatedly wrong forecasts (including the 'snow will become a thing of the past' article for the Independent) do not fill me with confidence in their predictive powers.

    It would be interesting to hear your views on what we should do then? Nothing? That's pretty much what the World is doing anyway to be honest...
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited March 2016
    murali,,,so what are you going to do about it..other than wring your hands before telling everyone to stop using their cars..turning on the heating..use less charcoal to cook with..don't,under any circumstances fly anywhere..ever.. unless you are attending a Global Warming Summit in some far flung paradise..and condemn the third world to even more starvation and deprivation...please tell us your grand plan..
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm really not seeing the support for Remain that polling suggests. Or the claims made that they've got it in the bag already. The reception to various scare stories is becoming noticeably Not Another One.

    Fear Fatigue has arrived very early in PR terms. I see this as a good thing - it forces both sides to make sensible cases for their votes.
    Mortimer said:

    Good article Alastair, thanks.

    Increasingly confident for Leave in the past 24 hours. Amazed at how many Millennial mates in London are for Leave, and how few adults outside of London support Remain.

    Just not sure the emotional attachment to the EU is what the elite think it is. The Easyjet generation know that if we leave the EU it'll still be a great place for a minibreak.

  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Song, well, yes. As it warmed during the reigns of Caligula and Claudius (and, later, Henry VIII). And cooled a few centuries ago.

    Mr. F, that's the problem. It's politics as much (perhaps more than) science. A popularity contest more than scientific inquiry. Science, after all, welcomes competing theories and begins with scepticism.

    Absolutely.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. S, actually, lots of the things being done to 'combat' global warming are things I support. More energy efficient devices, some renewables (bracketing them together is daft, as geothermal is fantastic, wind is rubbish, and most are in between) and so on.

    But lots of things are plain stupid. The Western middle class guilt fad of biofuel was a perfect example. It led to Indonesia (I think) cutting down swathes of ancient, pristine forest for oil plantation to sell the oil to the West. Wind is stupid, because it's too unpredictable.

    The photovoltaic windows (essentially solar panels) sound very intriguing and could reduce energy requirements from the National Grid by a significant margin if properly developed and built into new homes.

    I also think we should be going for gas-fired rather than nuclear power, based on the seemingly insane cost of the proposed new reactor (nothing against nuclear in principle but the cost seems excessive).

    Technological development is the way to go. That, and a proper scientific debate rather than some seeking to close down discussion by bleating about 'deniers' [glad to see you've not done that here] and 'the consensus' as if consensus is somehow a scientifically valid argument.
  • runnymede
    runnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Just not sure the emotional attachment to the EU is what the elite think it is.'

    There is no emotional attachment at all outside a narrow circle of lefties and luvvies and a few old fashioned Heathites. It's all transactional.

    That's why the government is eschewing any attempt at making an emotional case for staying in and is instead making wild claims about economic collapse, expensive holidays, an end to booze cruises and refugee camps in Kent.

    It might have been possible to paint the EU as a shining beacon of the future forty years ago, but the intervening time has shown quite clearly what kind of an organisation it really is.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,089
    I agree with most of this thread. However, I don't think people identify Osborne terribly strongly with Remain yet (though they're mistaken). So if I were Osborne, I would remain quiet on the issue to avoid riling people unnecessarily. I might even prepare some 'securing our economy' contingencies for Brexit, and try and appear as a uniting figure post-referendum.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    CD13 said:

    Good tactics by Labour at the moment ... Lie low and say nuffin. Keep jezza away from the media, and ban all comments on IS, NATO, security and immigration. I'm assuming this is the cunning plan.
    A big gap at the moment for a central party not involved in feuding over Europe. LDs should be showing signs of life but are imitating the Norwegian Blue instead.

    On the ball.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Osborne is a busted flush. He needs a big Remain win (60%+) to have a chance of succeeding Dave. And that is not going to happen. He became interesting for a while after the GE, but he got too focused on wanting to succeed Dave and it has weakened and diminished him. Turns out he needed Ed Balls to keep him on his toes. More than anyone else in the government George has suffered from the lack of an opposition.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Wanderer said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Government announces plans to stop people exhaling:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35809144

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/709514777480073216/photo/1
    Countries like the UK, Germany and France will eventually get their houses in order but there's no chance of global progress unless the US, China, Brazil and India are on board.

    I'm increasingly angry at the stupidity of the ecoleftists on this, who have so radically politicised the issue of climate change (with a combination of ultra-internationalism, rampant anti-capitalism, neo-socialist and identity politics writ-large) that there's virtually no chance of winning over a cross party consensus across the political Right in many of those countries.

    We will all probably pay a price.
    Hmm. The political right is responsible for itself imo. It isn't forced to take any particular view because left greens say this or that. A right wing environmentalism is eminently possible.
    Bollocks. Politics matters, and how issues of fundamental importance to the future of mankind are presented to those who support other parties is of crucial importance in building the consensus necessary to solve them.

    I had a couple of these lecturing dickheads preach at me at university in several lectures. One of them felt (and said) that the private motorcar was morally indefensible.

    As a Rightist I walked away with every impression that ecoism meant collectivism, socialism and an objection to individual choice.

    It put me right off. Thankfully, I still have the technical background to understand the science behind it but these idiots polarise the debate and turn off millions.
    Like any right-winger, you're only interested in yourself, when we get down to it.

    Casino is making the point that the Greens (in general) are their own worst enemy. By combining science on global warming and the like with a strong dislike of 'progress', they turn people off. Those who would be receptive to their ideas (and indeed, to their science) turn away. And then cognitive dissonance sets in: because I don't like the messenger and they are "anti-me", then everything they are saying must be wrong.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Plato_Says said:

    I'm really not seeing the support for Remain that polling suggests. Or the claims made that they've got it in the bag already. The reception to various scare stories is becoming noticeably Not Another One.

    Fear Fatigue has arrived very early in PR terms. I see this as a good thing - it forces both sides to make sensible cases for their votes.

    Mortimer said:

    Good article Alastair, thanks.

    Increasingly confident for Leave in the past 24 hours. Amazed at how many Millennial mates in London are for Leave, and how few adults outside of London support Remain.

    Just not sure the emotional attachment to the EU is what the elite think it is. The Easyjet generation know that if we leave the EU it'll still be a great place for a minibreak.

    (sir) Andrew Neil made the point on BBCSP that in Denmark the establishment led with all these scare stories and after a few weeks they were being mocked.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    He’s not got a particularly likeable persona, seeming cold and arrogant

    FWIW, my folks have met both Cameron and Osborne on multiple occasions. Osborne is far nicer and more charming than Cameron in person.

    @CarlottaVance what is your obsession with whether Boris Johnson is leading leave or not? Of course he's an asset to the campaign, but Gove and Stuart are co-chairing the organisation. I personally think this is a better choice.

    Its the same game everyone is playing. Yesterday we had Nabavi and friends wondering theatrically why people on the leave side were attacking Cameron as supposedly a lot of it wasn't his fault. Now we have CV attacking Boris for not leading Leave even though a presentational role while others look after the detail suits him best. Both sides see value in trying to discredit the main spokesman on their opponent, not exactly a shock.

    Incidentally the role Boris is playing in Leave suggest if he got to No10 he would be a similar style of leader to Cameron. That is to say collegiate and leaving ministers to do their job while he does the presentation.
    A lot of it isn't Cameron's fault, as should be obvious to anyone with half a brain. The party's problems and splits over Europe existed before he was on the scene in any major way. Whatever he did, he would upset roughly half his party and supporters. When it comes ot the EU, the party is unmanageable.

    Still, it's easier for leavers to screech 'theatrically' about Cameron, as their arguments on the EU itself are so poor.

    Besides, I was wondering why so-called Conservative leavers (not people on the leave side) were attacking Cameron in such a way, when the risks of a Corbynist government are so major. And whilst the probability of that government is low, it is getting more probable the longer he stays in and the more the Conservative party tars itself apart.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Observer, I'm not so sure. I haven't changed my mind from the 60/40 Remain victory (possibly more).
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    SouthamObserver said:

    Osborne is a busted flush.

    Just as he was after the Omnishambles. No way back from that.

    Oh, wait...

    @JohnRentoul: How commentary should be done, by @JananGanesh https://t.co/9SzHKhgOtS https://t.co/GWB0tS99KJ
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Mortimer said:

    Good article Alastair, thanks.

    Increasingly confident for Leave in the past 24 hours. Amazed at how many Millennial mates in London are for Leave, and how few adults outside of London support Remain.

    Just not sure the emotional attachment to the EU is what the elite think it is. The Easyjet generation know that if we leave the EU it'll still be a great place for a minibreak.

    Agreed. Leave looks like it is going to win. Then the real fun begins.

  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    "Supporters of Brexit are more likely to vote in the forthcoming referendum which could give the Leave campaign a decisive edge in the final result, a new Telegraph poll suggests.
    Analysis of the survey by Sir Lynton Crosby shows that voters who want Britain to leave the European Union are more motivated than those who say they are in favour of staying in. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12193963/EU-referendum-Exclusive-Telegraph-poll-says-Leave-campaign-most-likely-to-win-in-June.html
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plato_Says said:

    LBC
    At 9am: your first chance to #AskBoris since he backed the Brexit. Watch Boris Johnson live https://t.co/ADT89Vf6nw https://t.co/1uWYJTget2

    That's untrue. He was answering questions on Twitter yesterday.

    It's good to see Boris taking himself outside his comfort zone :-)

  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    SouthamObserver said:

    Osborne is a busted flush. He needs a big Remain win (60%+) to have a chance of succeeding Dave. And that is not going to happen. He became interesting for a while after the GE, but he got too focused on wanting to succeed Dave and it has weakened and diminished him. Turns out he needed Ed Balls to keep him on his toes. More than anyone else in the government George has suffered from the lack of an opposition.

    The job of a Chancellor, like the job of a finance director, is to take the punch bowl away just as the party is getting going. It is a natural home for the dull but dutiful, the competent but heartless, the sensible but unempathetic, the manager but not the leader. This ois probably why the number of Chancellors who have made a successful transition to POM is vanishingly thin. One or two have made it but then sucked big time at the top job (yes that means you Gordo). We saw with Miliband and now Corbyn that voters are looking for personal qualities in a leader - not technical ones. Osborne should reframe his ambition - to be the best Chancellor and to sort our public finances. That'd be a fantastic legacy. Better by a country mile than the legacy Gordon Brown left for himself
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    He's a great signing for the Telegraph.
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    "Supporters of Brexit are more likely to vote in the forthcoming referendum which could give the Leave campaign a decisive edge in the final result, a new Telegraph poll suggests.
    Analysis of the survey by Sir Lynton Crosby shows that voters who want Britain to leave the European Union are more motivated than those who say they are in favour of staying in. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12193963/EU-referendum-Exclusive-Telegraph-poll-says-Leave-campaign-most-likely-to-win-in-June.html

  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Charles said:

    He’s not got a particularly likeable persona, seeming cold and arrogant

    FWIW, my folks have met both Cameron and Osborne on multiple occasions. Osborne is far nicer and more charming than Cameron in person.

    I agree. Osborne is more aware that he does not connect well and works hard on it. Cameron just does not care. He thinks it ok if activists pay £15-£25 to see him in an invited <100 event and that a 5 min speech and a chat to one person is the right way to spend 20 mins with the foot soldiers.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited March 2016
    "There’s a well-known adage about election campaigns, which is that there are only really two strategies: ‘it’s time for a change’ and ‘it’s not time for a change’......"

    Well worth looking at the 'Leave' Ad. Very effective for a particular audience

    http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/expect-eu-referendum-campaigns/1382012#KMVZX6TkwMBj7o8i.99
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    "Supporters of Brexit are more likely to vote in the forthcoming referendum which could give the Leave campaign a decisive edge in the final result, a new Telegraph poll suggests.
    Analysis of the survey by Sir Lynton Crosby shows that voters who want Britain to leave the European Union are more motivated than those who say they are in favour of staying in. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12193963/EU-referendum-Exclusive-Telegraph-poll-says-Leave-campaign-most-likely-to-win-in-June.html

    That's why the government is playing the Project Fear card. Us Leavers are far more committed, by and large, than the mass of Remainers. The only hope for the government is to scare people who aren't really bothered into voting.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    felix said:

    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    felix said:

    A very good article. Expect waves of abuse from those anxious to turn the Conservatives into the right wing equivalent to Corbyn' s Labour party. While it may be an outlier the latest INC should be a wake up call to the Tory right. Sadly I doubt it as their hatred for Cameron and Osborne is quite intense.

    No fan of the Tory Right, but seems strangd to blame poor position of the Tories in the last poll on anyone other than the current leadership.
    not if you have the vaguest understanding of how the current leadership made the party electable to day by veering to the centre. The voters are very unforgiving of political parties which eschew the centre ground for their pet foibles. Ask Jereny Corbyn.
    That's probable, but not proven just yet.
  • nigel4england
    nigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Patrick said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Osborne is a busted flush. He needs a big Remain win (60%+) to have a chance of succeeding Dave. And that is not going to happen. He became interesting for a while after the GE, but he got too focused on wanting to succeed Dave and it has weakened and diminished him. Turns out he needed Ed Balls to keep him on his toes. More than anyone else in the government George has suffered from the lack of an opposition.

    The job of a Chancellor, like the job of a finance director, is to take the punch bowl away just as the party is getting going. It is a natural home for the dull but dutiful, the competent but heartless, the sensible but unempathetic, the manager but not the leader. This ois probably why the number of Chancellors who have made a successful transition to POM is vanishingly thin. One or two have made it but then sucked big time at the top job (yes that means you Gordo). We saw with Miliband and now Corbyn that voters are looking for personal qualities in a leader - not technical ones. Osborne should reframe his ambition - to be the best Chancellor and to sort our public finances. That'd be a fantastic legacy. Better by a country mile than the legacy Gordon Brown left for himself
    Agree totally, he has been a very good Chancellor and should continue in the same vein.
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