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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Professor Michael Thrasher introduces The Elections Centre

When Rallings and Thrasher established the Elections Centre in the early 1980s the principal aim was to collect and publish local election results in the same way that F.W.S. Craig was covering the parliamentary equivalent.
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The gov't should hold firm. They need to do what is right not what might seem popular. Support is trickling away from the doctors albeit at a snails pace.
Sounds V useful, good luck with your first venture into making the data available interactively.
I think he'll try, and the GOP Senate will stop it.
If he was astute, he'd nominate an eminently qualified minority female and watch the GOP try and block her and see how badly it plays out with /undecided/floating voters (and energising the Dem base)
The optics would be horrible for the GOP.
The possibility of a repeal of Roe v Wade would electrify the election
Thanks for this piece, Professor Thrasher.
I'm sure the more statistically astute members of the site will have some interesting thoughts on the data.
I can see Ginsburg and Breyer standing down if we have a Clinton Presidency.
'The last Labour government took capitulation to extremes. The National Audit Office says doctors’ pay rose 48 per cent between 2000 and 2009. NHS productivity fell 2 per cent.'
Massive pay increases with falling productivity and now they want to put their snouts deeper in the trough.
Now I know Stevens and Souter were nominated by GOP Presidents and turned out to be liberal Justices, but the Dems don't want a 7/2 Republican Supreme Court, coupled with the GOP controlling the The White House, The House and The Senate.
It also ain't clear that a nominee hanging in the air would help Clinton more than Trump. If she consolidates Dems while GOP vote is split by Trump being nominee, it could help him.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/707576993072738305
Michelle Freeze ·
Graduate Assistant at Appalachian State University
"I disagree with the lumping of North Carolina in with Virginia and SC. This is a large, purple, big university state, and we carry 121 Dem delegates. The natives are sick of their Republican overlords, Gov. McCrory and Sen. Burr. NC went for Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012, both wins by less than 2%. We are the greatest unknown out there and historically more liberal than other Southern states. In the first two days of early voting, lines at Appalachian State (the whitest part of the state, in the Blue Ridge mountains) were 2 hours long. The kids are turning out for Bernie. Traditional polling methods aren't catching the millennial vote."
The English votes for English laws procedure applies to the #EnterpriseBill. Find out more about #EVEL https://t.co/teRUoHF3w9
If SCOTUS nomination is still live by 5th November then Democrats win.
Republican senators up for are between a rock and a hard place. If they do their job and hold hearings then they get primaried - they do not want to get into a purity cotnest just before the general. If they do not hold hearings then Sanders voters (assuming Sanders loses and Hilary wins) who otherwise would sit on their hands turn out and vote for Hilary. Not grudgingly but with relish because SCOTUS Trumps the executive.
There is a slim chance that after the Senatorial primary deadlines have past that the Senate could hold hearings but I strongly doubt it.
Alistair's Observation on American Elections (AOAE):
The Republicans have won the presidential popular vote once in the last 6 elections.
1) you can't be seen as afraid of a GE when you're the opposition. You just can't. It's over for a LOTO who turns down the chance to go to the country. Deselection stops being a fairly abstract concept for MPs who rebel against Corbyn's opportunity to push for the Glorious New Dawn.
2) In addition Labour right wingers would correctly see the possibility of defenestrating Corbyn in favour of a unity candidate ("Seriously? You expect us to follow him into a GE?")
3) as (I think) Robert pointed out, any law requiring two thirds of the house is a nullity as it can be repealed with a simple majority. So a majority government can call an early GE. Labour know this so why take the risk of looking like cowards by refusing to vote for an early election, then having one anyway when the first Tory attack line will be "even Labour don't think they should win"?
That's why.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/02/24/brian-sandoval-republican-governor-of-nevada-is-being-vetted-for-supreme-court-vacancy/
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/arab-countries-visa-passport-restrictions-981352555
That seems rather lenient.
If there were some constitutional consequence to leaving the EU then that can be voted on in another referendum. Any future treaty changes to the EU can also be voted on in a referendum.
The SNP can still have influence because English votes laws still have to pass whole UK parliament after Hague watered down proposals.
As predicted the SNP are going to try to be as obstructive and unhelpful as possible, just like the Irish Party a century or so ago.
In terms of "gaming" the situation (and putting aside that it is said Basil has most of the loot), the chance to make millions with the best case scenario away free, the worst that could happen is 3.5 behind bars, seems like a very good offer.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/12189082/Vladimir-Putin-wants-Britain-to-vote-for-Brexit-but-that-doesnt-mean-we-shouldnt.html
If independence is off the table then the SNP have that as an ideal, but voting for the party becomes a matter of competence/standing up for Scotland rather than risking (as some would see it) another independence referendum. In short, floating voters can continue to vote SNP without worrying it could lead to independence.
Not sure how Corbyn plays in Scotland.
Tin foil hattery probably but you have to admit something is not right.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3483918/Lord-Janner-abused-position-MP-sexually-assault-30-victims-hotels-children-s-homes-1955-1988-inquiry-historic-abuse-hears.html
You don't have to agree with them politically, but Ken, Boris and Sadiq have it, but Zac doesn't
Zac gives off a very disinterested appearance from this distance.
A new member of the Labour Party, ladies and gentlemen. (via @GuidoFawkes) https://t.co/8AeaznvpGj
Danny Jones, who used to wear his mum's dressing gown and a Tommy Cooper-style fez to bed, thanks judge as he is jailed for seven years
A lot of have bunk beds which make it awkward for OAPS, nor do they have the health facilities to look after them, which leads to constant visits to NHS Hospitals, which is a pain for the prison service.
Perhaps it's easier to hang it on some old lags in a suitable deal then bring suspicion on themselves, it seems these so called sophisticated career criminals did pretty much all they could to get caught.
All apart from the mystery bloke, the one that had the keys to let them in!
Stronger In
Brexit could leave UK in same position as Bolivia, say top business leaders. https://t.co/d2WOAVLxJM https://t.co/UP88UD1IDh
One for Dr Sox: the Vardy Quake
http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2016/03/leicester-city-fans-caused-an-earthquake-celebrating-last-gasp-ulloa-goal/
He might also (ahem) be interested in another link towards the end of the article ...
How many layers is that jumping, and does that constitute adequate experience to be a member of the SCOTUS?
As I recall, it is District Court beneath Appellate Court beneath Supreme Court in the State System, and District beneath Circuit beneath Supreme Court in the Federal system.
Hmm.
I know it's the Mail, but this kinda gives an outline, the cost is an issue, given prison budgets are being cut/frozen.
Prison governors are being forced to upgrade jail cells to cope with a boom in pensioner prisoners - following a decade long crack down in historic sex abusers.
The number of prisoners aged over 60 has soared by 130 per cent in the last ten years as OAP abusers like BBC star Stuart Hall and publicist Max Clifford are finally convicted of their crimes.
This is far more than other age groups. Overall, prison numbers have gone up by 17 per cent. People aged 60 and over are the fastest growing age group in prisons - largely fuelled by a dramatic rise in historic sex abuse cases.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2647619/Surge-pension-age-prisoners-Specially-adapted-cells-needed-cope-wave-geriatric-thugs-sex-offenders.html
*Note this isn't legal advice
https://twitter.com/moorlanddragon/status/707575934522695680
This is how MPs intend to vote in the EU referendum | by @ian_a_jones https://t.co/zneiK5Eztj
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/talk-is-cheap-as-all-wait-to-see-what-happens-next-1.2565247
People close to him say Martin’s judgment is that it is not in Fianna Fáil’s interests to join a government with Kenny. That is precisely, he reasons, what he spent the general election trying to prevent.
But the blunt truth about Martin’s position is that even if he did want to cut a deal for a grand coalition with Kenny, he could not currently get such an arrangement through his parliamentary party. And even if he forced it through there, he could not secure the agreement of a special ardfheis that the party rules require. Sources at all levels of Fianna Fáil are absolutely adamant on this latter point.
Basically FF are trying to avoid going into government, and FG are trying to avoid a minority government which FF can bring down at any time.
Jeremy Drew, the head of retail at law firm RPC, said the ruling would “send shockwaves through design-driven businesses. It’s highly likely that other businesses may now begin to see cheaper versions of their well-known original registered designs coming on to the market.”
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/mar/09/kiddee-trumps-trunki-in-battle-of-the-suitcases
http://www.worldtrademarkreview.com/blog/Detail.aspx?g=7f6929c0-9ff5-4bdf-8a15-f4ae80d37ffd
But if Republicans want to claim a talented black woman is insufficiently experienced when white men with less court experience have got their votes, they are welcome to argue so...