I don't know about the other examples set out above, but the 8 years 5 months for South Korea - the EU's 9th largest trading partner - looks highly suspect.
This was in the Korea Times of 7th January 2009:
"Since the signing of an FTA with the United States [on June 30] 2007, South Korea has held seven rounds of negotiations with the EU,"
It was finally signed on 15th October, 2009
27 months. This was even allowing for difficulty in negotiating as "both sides have been reluctant to accept each other's demands on tariff reductions, rules of origin and auto trade and auto-related technical standards"
Here is a link to the document, that could be used as a template:
You'll find both on the table if you scroll down far enough. Mexico clocks in at 5 years 3 months, Canada is as yet unratified and currently at 6 years 6 months and counting.
After Nevada I had Trump's chances at 90% for him to get the nomination. No longer, after S.Tuesday I have to downgrade them to 50%, with Cruz at 25% and 25% for a convention.
The result for Trump although impressive on paper, lacks depth: 1. He only won 7 while he was expected to win 10. 2. And from those 7 he won 3 by very small margins. 3. He underperformed the polls by 5 points 4. His underwhelming performance boosted the morale of his enemies. 5. Fox News will try to kill him at the debate tomorrow 6.The schedule is not in Trumps favour, he is on course to lose the majority of caucuses and primaries from now till March 15th.
Trump has to survive the Fox News debate but I don't give him high chances.
He has to survive the attacks from the establishment and far right factions, instead of accepting the front runner as usual at this point in the campaigns they show no signs of that. Now they will be more ferocious and organized and I give him some chances of surviving that.
But on Saturday Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine vote, only republicans can vote in those so no independents for Trump, and only Louisiana is a primary, and only Maine is safe territory for him. Cruz can win all the others and Trump only Maine.
That on top of Fox News killing Trump on the debate will be extremely damaging for Trump.
I gave Trump 90% chances on the assumption that the party will see the writing on the wall after Nevada and give up, it didn't. And that Trump will sweep S.Tuesday, he didn't. This is his most dangerous moment since losing Iowa.
What odds do you make various parties in the convention 25% ?
Romney or Ryan, 100% odds for them in a convention. And the GOP will have 1968 type riots in their convention, Trump will run as an independent on some states and tell his supporters to kick the GOP any way they can like voting against Senators and Representatives. The Establishment would win at the cost of demolishing the GOP and denouncing their own voters, at the extremes they might end up like the LD at least temporarily.
The democrats would gain massive majorities in the Senate and the House if Trump's 30% votes against the GOP, I estimate the republicans losing 15 Senate seats and 100 House seats. The impact in the House will be bigger since they are all up for re-election this year.
Basically they would be blowing the GOP up rather than surrendering it to an outsider.
Romney-Ryan vs Trump vs HRC - that must put virtually every state in play for the Democrats. The outcome would be a foregone conclusion for Hilllary at the very least.
If leave win on the basis of massive popular concern about what is happening on the frontiers of central Europe, there is not the faintest chance of the government hand waving it away and going for an EEA/EFTA solution, it would be political suicide, Corbyn or no Corbyn. The Tory loyalists are massively overconfident about how much leeway with the public the bearded tit gives them.
What is it about Leavers that makes them incapable of replying to my posts without misrepresenting my views?
As it happens, I think you might be right about EEA/EFTA, or at least you are right to agree with me that it would be a massive political row, both within the Conservative Party and in the the country as a whole. I have said this many times. The political fallout from the perceived betrayal could be huge.
On the other hand, the economic fallout from a non-EEA/EFTA option could also be huge.
I don't have a solution to this, but then I shall be voting Remain, so don't blame me.
I don't know about the other examples set out above, but the 8 years 5 months for South Korea - the EU's 9th largest trading partner - looks highly suspect.
This was in the Korea Times of 7th January 2009:
"Since the signing of an FTA with the United States [on June 30] 2007, South Korea has held seven rounds of negotiations with the EU,"
It was finally signed on 15th October, 2009
27 months. This was even allowing for difficulty in negotiating as "both sides have been reluctant to accept each other's demands on tariff reductions, rules of origin and auto trade and auto-related technical standards"
Here is a link to the document, that could be used as a template:
You'll find both on the table if you scroll down far enough. Mexico clocks in at 5 years 3 months, Canada is as yet unratified and currently at 6 years 6 months and counting.
The dynamics different when negotiating from outside. As a member of a club you get equal weighting with everyone else. Outside it come down to the relative bargaining power of the parties. In this one, the EU holds more cards than the UK and apart from Ireland will have a much smaller sense of urgency about doing the deal. Which doesn't mean that the UK wouldn't get a deal. It means that the UK is more likely to get a deal it likes if it has fewer demands in the first place.
The haggling I think would be over services. The EU has loads of Free Trade Agreements and the UK would definitely get one too. Unfortunately for the UK, trade agreements tend to facilitate goods rather than services, but the UK is stronger than rEU on services while having a deficit on goods. Several countries have looked at our service industries and thought, wouldn't mind a bit of that. The default, unless negotiated differently, will be barriers on those services. I think the UK will have to accept the loss of a chunk of its services exports to get the deal.
Victoria Pendleton wins her first race under rules - looks like she'll be riding at Cheltenham now. Seriously impressive effort since she only sat on a horse for the first time a year ago.
Coral were offering 2/1 she would fall off again. Glad I didn't take it
She is going to get quite a surprise come the Festival.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
Life is a risk. Deciding to Leave or Remain shouldn't be based upon administrative inconvenience.
So which of the personal and business freedoms I currently enjoy do you think I should be prepared to risk?
I think you need to decide whether you think that EU membership is, on balance, a positive thing for this country, or a negative thing. If you conclude the former, vote Remain. If you conclude the latter, vote Leave.
A lawyer's answer :-). You want me to risk - even give up - freedoms I currently enjoy. The emphasis is kind of you to explain why.
I've given my views, here and elsewhere, as to why I think we should leave on plenty of occasions. Accept or reject them as you like. I really can't tell you what freedoms you should risk. I don't know you, I don't know what matters to you. I don't consider that I am risking any freedom that I consider to be important (freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, freedom to own property, freedom of contract) by voting Leave.
Fair enough. I also treasure freedom of movement. I don't see my freedom of speech at risk by being an EU member state. I do see my freedom of movement being at risk if we pull out.
Why would your freedom of movement be limited?
Lionel Messi can go anywhere to play football, Carlisle's reserve goalie might struggle. If you're good at what you do you'll be fine and wanted.
My freedom to move goods and services around the EU, as well as capital. And my right to settle where I wish.
I really don't know why you keep making things up. If we leave the EU and you turn up in Benidorm with a case full of money are you seriously suggesting they're going to turn you away?
To be fair, if you turn up with a case full of money, Mr Plod might want a word with you
Victoria Pendleton wins her first race under rules - looks like she'll be riding at Cheltenham now. Seriously impressive effort since she only sat on a horse for the first time a year ago.
Coral were offering 2/1 she would fall off again. Glad I didn't take it
She is going to get quite a surprise come the Festival.
It's hardly surprising that Leave lacks intellectual rigour given it's got the likes of Grayling and Duncan Smith in charge.
And you are siding with Jeremy Hunt, I bet that makes you feel all warm inside.
I don't think Chris has had anything good to say about Cameron,Osborne or Hunt but all of a sudden with them leading the remain campaign,they up there with abe Lincoln ;-)
Mr Meeks is another who has undergone that Damascene conversion.
Didn't reckon Cam's chances in 2015 one jot, suddenly Cam's a genius I tell you.
If remain does win,I will remind the posters on here who voted remain and who big up everything British except when it comes to British self confidence in the world.
I can think of one or two on here,can you.
Agree Plato.
I agree too.
In time the Remainers will be seen as the purveyors of a totally dishonest campaign, and they will all lose whatever credibility they have left, including many on here.
There are two scenarios, the first is Leave win and none, or at least very little, of the Doomsday scenario they bleat on about actually comes to pass. It is quite likely in fact that within a reasonable amount of time the UK would flourish, and all those dismal soothsayers will look as foolish as Blair, Mandelson, Rudd, Heseltine, Clarke etc do after their ludicrous Euro statements.
Second scenario is that Remain win and all the things they said would never happen actually do happen, as we all know they will, and Cameron's 'tough negotiation' is shown up to be not worth the paper it is written on. It won't take much, just the first time we are discriminated against, asked to contribute to a bailout etc.
Either way history will show that those who now espouse the virtues of Remain and try to bully the rest of us with Project Fear will be proven to be dishonest, gullible, stupid or all three.
On twitter people are pointing out the repub race aint over, because Trump struggles in 'closed' primaries, and we are now moving to more closed primaries.
Afternoon all. In case it's easier to look at here, here's a link to the full table:............1) Those advocating Leave have no agreement about what Britain's negotiating priorities should be in the event of Brexit. In fact, they can't even gather under a single banner. ....None of those differences suggest to me that we can look for the accelerator pedal to be hit.
Mr Meeks, any form of negotiations has to be set against the backdrop of who has most to gain and lose. In these international negotiations the larger trading partners within the EU rely on us to buy more of their goods than the figure we have to sell to them. Can Germany afford disruption in one of its biggest european purchasers of its goods at this time of economic low/no growth? The answer is no and that applies to the key EU countries. Because of this and other factors, deals can be done and we have cash and influence that can lubricate the process. We are no longer the sick man of Europe that we were in the 1970s.
Britain, being proportionately more dependent on trade with the EU than the EU is on trade with the UK, is in no position to set down preconditions. Moreover, different EU states have different interests and each has a veto.
Look, this is what happens.
If we Leave companies will continue to buy and sell stuff they want, countries don't buy or sell anything, it is a complete myth. If BMW sell me a car they don't invoice UK who in turn invoice me.
I'd love to know how many people on this site make a living from buying and selling things, I'd guess very few.
I do. What will happen is that cost of doing business in the EU will increase without full access to the single market. It certainly costs us more to business in the US, Taiwan or Korea than it does to do it in the EU.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
Life is a risk. Deciding to Leave or Remain shouldn't be based upon administrative inconvenience.
So which of the personal and business freedoms I currently enjoy do you think I should be prepared to risk?
I think you need to decide whether you think that EU membership is, on balance, a positive thing for this country, or a negative thing. If you conclude the former, vote Remain. If you conclude the latter, vote Leave.
A lawyer's answer :-). You want me to risk - even give up - freedoms I currently enjoy. The emphasis is kind of you to explain why.
I've given my views, here and elsewhere, as to why I think we should leave on plenty of occasions. Accept or reject them as you like. I really can't tell you what freedoms you should risk. I don't know you, I don't know what matters to you. I don't consider that I am risking any freedom that I consider to be important (freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, freedom to own property, freedom of contract) by voting Leave.
Fair enough. I also treasure freedom of movement. I don't see my freedom of speech at risk by being an EU member state. I do see my freedom of movement being at risk if we pull out.
Why would your freedom of movement be limited?
Lionel Messi can go anywhere to play football, Carlisle's reserve goalie might struggle. If you're good at what you do you'll be fine and wanted.
My freedom to move goods and services around the EU, as well as capital. And my right to settle where I wish.
I really don't know why you keep making things up. If we leave the EU and you turn up in Benidorm with a case full of money are you seriously suggesting they're going to turn you away?
To be fair, if you turn up with a case full of money, Mr Plod might want a word with you
It's hardly surprising that Leave lacks intellectual rigour given it's got the likes of Grayling and Duncan Smith in charge.
And you are siding with Jeremy Hunt, I bet that makes you feel all warm inside.
I don't think Chris has had anything good to say about Cameron,Osborne or Hunt but all of a sudden with them leading the remain campaign,they up there with abe Lincoln ;-)
Mr Meeks is another who has undergone that Damascene conversion.
Didn't reckon Cam's chances in 2015 one jot, suddenly Cam's a genius I tell you.
If remain does win,I will remind the posters on here who voted remain and who big up everything British except when it comes to British self confidence in the world.
I can think of one or two on here,can you.
Agree Plato.
=====Godwin alert======= I sometimes wonder of those remain arguments are that far away from those made by Foreign Secretary Lord Halifax in 1940.
After Nevada I had Trump's chances at 90% for him to get the nomination. No longer, after S.Tuesday I have to downgrade them to 50%, with Cruz at 25% and 25% for a convention.
The result for Trump although impressive on paper, lacks depth: 1. He only won 7 while he was expected to win 10. 2. And from those 7 he won 3 by very small margins. 3. He underperformed the polls by 5 points 4. His underwhelming performance boosted the morale of his enemies. 5. Fox News will try to kill him at the debate tomorrow 6.The schedule is not in Trumps favour, he is on course to lose the majority of caucuses and primaries from now till March 15th.
Trump has to survive the Fox News debate but I don't give him high chances.
He has to survive the attacks from the establishment and far right factions, instead of accepting the front runner as usual at this point in the campaigns they show no signs of that. Now they will be more ferocious and organized and I give him some chances of surviving that.
But on Saturday Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine vote, only republicans can vote in those so no independents for Trump, and only Louisiana is a primary, and only Maine is safe territory for him. Cruz can win all the others and Trump only Maine.
That on top of Fox News killing Trump on the debate will be extremely damaging for Trump.
I gave Trump 90% chances on the assumption that the party will see the writing on the wall after Nevada and give up, it didn't. And that Trump will sweep S.Tuesday, he didn't. This is his most dangerous moment since losing Iowa.
What odds do you make various parties in the convention 25% ?
Romney or Ryan, 100% odds for them in a convention. And the GOP will have 1968 type riots in their convention, Trump will run as an independent on some states and tell his supporters to kick the GOP any way they can like voting against Senators and Representatives. The Establishment would win at the cost of demolishing the GOP and denouncing their own voters, at the extremes they might end up like the LD at least temporarily.
The democrats would gain massive majorities in the Senate and the House if Trump's 30% votes against the GOP, I estimate the republicans losing 15 Senate seats and 100 House seats. The impact in the House will be bigger since they are all up for re-election this year.
Basically they would be blowing the GOP up rather than surrendering it to an outsider.
Anything can happen, but I can't see much chance of Trump failing to win the nomination now. His performance last night may not have matched the best expectations, but it was still very solid.
Afternoon all. In case it's easier to look at here, here's a link to the full table:............1) Those advocating Leave have no agreement about what Britain's negotiating priorities should be in the event of Brexit. In fact, they can't even gather under a single banner. ....None of those differences suggest to me that we can look for the accelerator pedal to be hit.
Mr Meeks, any form of negotiations has to be set against the backdrop of who has most to gain and lose. In these international negotiations the larger trading partners within the EU rely on us to buy more of their goods than the figure we have to sell to them. Can Germany afford disruption in one of its biggest european purchasers of its goods at this time of economic low/no growth? The answer is no and that applies to the key EU countries. Because of this and other factors, deals can be done and we have cash and influence that can lubricate the process. We are no longer the sick man of Europe that we were in the 1970s.
Britain, being proportionately more dependent on trade with the EU than the EU is on trade with the UK, is in no position to set down preconditions. Moreover, different EU states have different interests and each has a veto.
Mr Meeks in cash terms more flows one way than the other. We spend more on their goods and we give more in tax money to them. We could also choose to substitute overseas aid for some of the lost tax. Why do you have such a low opinion on our abilities?
Long ago, in a galaxy far far away, Tatooine ran a trade deficit with the Empire. The Empire, though evil, was far larger than Tatooine. Tatooine sent 100% of its exports to the Empire (major sectors: commodities and death star components) while the Empire, being vastly larger, sent just 1% of its exports to Tatooine.
Do you really think that Tatooine could use its "cash power" to threaten the Empire?
On twitter people are pointing out the repub race aint over, because Trump struggles in 'closed' primaries, and we are now moving to more closed primaries.
I think that's probably wishful thinking on their part.
It's hardly surprising that Leave lacks intellectual rigour given it's got the likes of Grayling and Duncan Smith in charge.
And you are siding with Jeremy Hunt, I bet that makes you feel all warm inside.
I don't think Chris has had anything good to say about Cameron,Osborne or Hunt but all of a sudden with them leading the remain campaign,they up there with abe Lincoln ;-)
Mr Meeks is another who has undergone that Damascene conversion.
Didn't reckon Cam's chances in 2015 one jot, suddenly Cam's a genius I tell you.
If remain does win,I will remind the posters on here who voted remain and who big up everything British except when it comes to British self confidence in the world.
I can think of one or two on here,can you.
Agree Plato.
I agree too.
In time the Remainers will be seen as the purveyors of a totally dishonest campaign, and they will all lose whatever credibility they have left, including many on here.
There are two scenarios, the first is Leave win and none, or at least very little, of the Doomsday scenario they bleat on about actually comes to pass. It is quite likely in fact that within a reasonable amount of time the UK would flourish, and all those dismal soothsayers will look as foolish as Blair, Mandelson, Rudd, Heseltine, Clarke etc do after their ludicrous Euro statements.
Second scenario is that Remain win and all the things they said would never happen actually do happen, as we all know they will, and Cameron's 'tough negotiation' is shown up to be not worth the paper it is written on. It won't take much, just the first time we are discriminated against, asked to contribute to a bailout etc.
Either way history will show that those who now espouse the virtues of Remain and try to bully the rest of us with Project Fear will be proven to be dishonest, gullible, stupid or all three.
Just heard on BBC that the EU has decided to divert overseas aid to its own countries to help with the migration crisis.
I'm not sure that's what we had in mind for the (IIRC) £1.0 billion contribution that DfID make to the EU overseas aid budget.
Perhaps someone should point that out?
That is exactly what we want the aid budget to be used for.
Leavers seem to have lost all reason, all they ever do is portray anything which either the EU or any EU country does, even if it is exactly in our interests, as reprehensible.
Afternoon all. In case it's easier to look at here, here's a link to the full table:............1) Those advocating Leave have no agreement about what Britain's negotiating priorities should be in the event of Brexit. In fact, they can't even gather under a single banner. ....None of those differences suggest to me that we can look for the accelerator pedal to be hit.
Mr Meeks, any form of negotiations has to be set against the backdrop of who has most to gain and lose. In these international negotiations the larger trading partners within the EU rely on us to buy more of their goods than the figure we have to sell to them. Can Germany afford disruption in one of its biggest european purchasers of its goods at this time of economic low/no growth? The answer is no and that applies to the key EU countries. Because of this and other factors, deals can be done and we have cash and influence that can lubricate the process. We are no longer the sick man of Europe that we were in the 1970s.
Britain, being proportionately more dependent on trade with the EU than the EU is on trade with the UK, is in no position to set down preconditions. Moreover, different EU states have different interests and each has a veto.
Look, this is what happens.
If we Leave companies will continue to buy and sell stuff they want, countries don't buy or sell anything, it is a complete myth. If BMW sell me a car they don't invoice UK who in turn invoice me.
I'd love to know how many people on this site make a living from buying and selling things, I'd guess very few.
I do. What will happen is that cost of doing business in the EU will increase without full access to the single market. It certainly costs us more to business in the US, Taiwan or Korea than it does to do it in the EU.
Nah. If the conferences you put on are good people will pay for them, its called trade. Its why Messi can choose his club and name his price and I can't. Its why we'll continue to buy BMWs and Chablis and people will still queue up outside Buckingham Palace.
We don't need a Eurpean Parliament telling us what we can and can't do.
Afternoon all. In case it's easier to look at here, here's a link to the full table:............1) Those advocating Leave have no agreement about what Britain's negotiating priorities should be in the event of Brexit. In fact, they can't even gather under a single banner. ....None of those differences suggest to me that we can look for the accelerator pedal to be hit.
Mr Meeks, any form of negotiations has to be set against the backdrop of who has most to gain and lose. In these international negotiations the larger trading partners within the EU rely on us to buy more of their goods than the figure we have to sell to them. Can Germany afford disruption in one of its biggest european purchasers of its goods at this time of economic low/no growth? The answer is no and that applies to the key EU countries. Because of this and other factors, deals can be done and we have cash and influence that can lubricate the process. We are no longer the sick man of Europe that we were in the 1970s.
Britain, being proportionately more dependent on trade with the EU than the EU is on trade with the UK, is in no position to set down preconditions. Moreover, different EU states have different interests and each has a veto.
Mr Meeks in cash terms more flows one way than the other. We spend more on their goods and we give more in tax money to them. We could also choose to substitute overseas aid for some of the lost tax. Why do you have such a low opinion on our abilities?
Long ago, in a galaxy far far away, Tatooine ran a trade deficit with the Empire. The Empire, though evil, was far larger than Tatooine. Tatooine sent 100% of its exports to the Empire (major sectors: commodities and death star components) while the Empire, being vastly larger, sent just 1% of its exports to Tatooine.
Do you really think that Tatooine could use its "cash power" to threaten the Empire?
But we don't send 100% of our exports though do we, it's 45% and falling.
Afternoon all. In case it's easier to look at here, here's a link to the full table:............1) Those advocating Leave have no agreement about what Britain's negotiating priorities should be in the event of Brexit. In fact, they can't even gather under a single banner. ....None of those differences suggest to me that we can look for the accelerator pedal to be hit.
Mr Meeks, any form of negotiations has to be set against the backdrop of who has most to gain and lose. In these international negotiations the larger trading partners within the EU rely on us to buy more of their goods than the figure we have to sell to them. Can Germany afford disruption in one of its biggest european purchasers of its goods at this time of economic low/no growth? The answer is no and that applies to the key EU countries. Because of this and other factors, deals can be done and we have cash and influence that can lubricate the process. We are no longer the sick man of Europe that we were in the 1970s.
Britain, being proportionately more dependent on trade with the EU than the EU is on trade with the UK, is in no position to set down preconditions. Moreover, different EU states have different interests and each has a veto.
Mr Meeks in cash terms more flows one way than the other. We spend more on their goods and we give more in tax money to them. We could also choose to substitute overseas aid for some of the lost tax. Why do you have such a low opinion on our abilities?
Long ago, in a galaxy far far away, Tatooine ran a trade deficit with the Empire. The Empire, though evil, was far larger than Tatooine. Tatooine sent 100% of its exports to the Empire (major sectors: commodities and death star components) while the Empire, being vastly larger, sent just 1% of its exports to Tatooine.
Do you really think that Tatooine could use its "cash power" to threaten the Empire?
But we don't send 100% of our exports though do we, it's 45% and falling.
More ludicrous tripe.
I'm trying to use a simple example so that everyone can see the fallacy in @TCPoliticalBetting's argument. Evidently I need to aim lower still.
Afternoon all. In case it's easier to look at here, here's a link to the full table:............1) Those advocating Leave have no agreement about what Britain's negotiating priorities should be in the event of Brexit. In fact, they can't even gather under a single banner. ....None of those differences suggest to me that we can look for the accelerator pedal to be hit.
Mr Meeks, any form of negotiations has to be set against the backdrop of who has most to gain and lose. In these international negotiations the larger trading partners within the EU rely on us to buy more of their goods than the figure we have to sell to them. Can Germany afford disruption in one of its biggest european purchasers of its goods at this time of economic low/no growth? The answer is no and that applies to the key EU countries. Because of this and other factors, deals can be done and we have cash and influence that can lubricate the process. We are no longer the sick man of Europe that we were in the 1970s.
Britain, being proportionately more dependent on trade with the EU than the EU is on trade with the UK, is in no position to set down preconditions. Moreover, different EU states have different interests and each has a veto.
Mr Meeks in cash terms more flows one way than the other. We spend more on their goods and we give more in tax money to them. We could also choose to substitute overseas aid for some of the lost tax. Why do you have such a low opinion on our abilities?
Long ago, in a galaxy far far away, Tatooine ran a trade deficit with the Empire. The Empire, though evil, was far larger than Tatooine. Tatooine sent 100% of its exports to the Empire (major sectors: commodities and death star components) while the Empire, being vastly larger, sent just 1% of its exports to Tatooine.
Do you really think that Tatooine could use its "cash power" to threaten the Empire?
But we don't send 100% of our exports though do we, it's 45% and falling.
More ludicrous tripe.
I'm trying to use a simple example so that everyone can see the fallacy in @TCPoliticalBetting's argument. Evidently I need to aim lower still.
Ah yes there was a documentary made about that where the plucky young lad from Tatooine decided he could have a more comfortable life by pledging fealty to the Empire
After Nevada I had Trump's chances at 90% for him to get the nomination. No longer, after S.Tuesday I have to downgrade them to 50%, with Cruz at 25% and 25% for a convention.
The result for Trump although impressive on paper, lacks depth: 1. He only won 7 while he was expected to win 10. 2. And from those 7 he won 3 by very small margins. 3. He underperformed the polls by 5 points 4. His underwhelming performance boosted the morale of his enemies. 5. Fox News will try to kill him at the debate tomorrow 6.The schedule is not in Trumps favour, he is on course to lose the majority of caucuses and primaries from now till March 15th.
Trump has to survive the Fox News debate but I don't give him high chances.
He has to survive the attacks from the establishment and far right factions, instead of accepting the front runner as usual at this point in the campaigns they show no signs of that. Now they will be more ferocious and organized and I give him some chances of surviving that.
But on Saturday Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine vote, only republicans can vote in those so no independents for Trump, and only Louisiana is a primary, and only Maine is safe territory for him. Cruz can win all the others and Trump only Maine.
That on top of Fox News killing Trump on the debate will be extremely damaging for Trump.
I gave Trump 90% chances on the assumption that the party will see the writing on the wall after Nevada and give up, it didn't. And that Trump will sweep S.Tuesday, he didn't. This is his most dangerous moment since losing Iowa.
What odds do you make various parties in the convention 25% ?
Romney or Ryan, 100% odds for them in a convention. And the GOP will have 1968 type riots in their convention, Trump will run as an independent on some states and tell his supporters to kick the GOP any way they can like voting against Senators and Representatives. The Establishment would win at the cost of demolishing the GOP and denouncing their own voters, at the extremes they might end up like the LD at least temporarily.
The democrats would gain massive majorities in the Senate and the House if Trump's 30% votes against the GOP, I estimate the republicans losing 15 Senate seats and 100 House seats. The impact in the House will be bigger since they are all up for re-election this year.
Basically they would be blowing the GOP up rather than surrendering it to an outsider.
Anything can happen, but I can't see much chance of Trump failing to win the nomination now. His performance last night may not have matched the best expectations, but it was still very solid.
Of the delegates won last night, the share is going to look like:
Just heard on BBC that the EU has decided to divert overseas aid to its own countries to help with the migration crisis.
I'm not sure that's what we had in mind for the (IIRC) £1.0 billion contribution that DfID make to the EU overseas aid budget.
Perhaps someone should point that out?
That is exactly what we want the aid budget to be used for.
Leavers seem to have lost all reason, all they ever do is portray anything which either the EU or any EU country does, even if it is exactly in our interests, as reprehensible.
What utter bollox.
I could write all day about the wonderful things EU countries do and what wonderful places they are. Without exception the EU countries I've visited are great places.
Where you and I part is I don't need idiots telling me what I can buy or sell.
Afternoon all. In case it's easier to look at here, here's a link to the full table:............1) Those advocating Leave have no agreement about what Britain's negotiating priorities should be in the event of Brexit. In fact, they can't even gather under a single banner. ....None of those differences suggest to me that we can look for the accelerator pedal to be hit.
Mr Meeks, any form of negotiations has to be set against the backdrop of who has most to gain and lose. In these international negotiations the larger trading partners within the EU rely on us to buy more of their goods than the figure we have to sell to them. Can Germany afford disruption in one of its biggest european purchasers of its goods at this time of economic low/no growth? The answer is no and that applies to the key EU countries. Because of this and other factors, deals can be done and we have cash and influence that can lubricate the process. We are no longer the sick man of Europe that we were in the 1970s.
Britain, being proportionately more dependent on trade with the EU than the EU is on trade with the UK, is in no position to set down preconditions. Moreover, different EU states have different interests and each has a veto.
Mr Meeks in cash terms more flows one way than the other. We spend more on their goods and we give more in tax money to them. We could also choose to substitute overseas aid for some of the lost tax. Why do you have such a low opinion on our abilities?
Long ago, in a galaxy far far away, Tatooine ran a trade deficit with the Empire. The Empire, though evil, was far larger than Tatooine. Tatooine sent 100% of its exports to the Empire (major sectors: commodities and death star components) while the Empire, being vastly larger, sent just 1% of its exports to Tatooine.
Do you really think that Tatooine could use its "cash power" to threaten the Empire?
But we don't send 100% of our exports though do we, it's 45% and falling.
More ludicrous tripe.
That metaphor is so spectacularly inappropriate its hilarious.
Afternoon all. In case it's easier to look at here, here's a link to the full table:............1) Those advocating Leave have no agreement about what Britain's negotiating priorities should be in the event of Brexit. In fact, they can't even gather under a single banner. ....None of those differences suggest to me that we can look for the accelerator pedal to be hit.
Mr Meeks, any form of negotiations has to be set against the backdrop of who has most to gain and lose. In these international negotiations the larger trading partners within the EU rely on us to buy more of their goods than the figure we have to sell to them. Can Germany afford disruption in one of its biggest european purchasers of its goods at this time of economic low/no growth? The answer is no and that applies to the key EU countries. Because of this and other factors, deals can be done and we have cash and influence that can lubricate the process. We are no longer the sick man of Europe that we were in the 1970s.
Britain, being proportionately more dependent on trade with the EU than the EU is on trade with the UK, is in no position to set down preconditions. Moreover, different EU states have different interests and each has a veto.
Look, this is what happens.
If we Leave companies will continue to buy and sell stuff they want, countries don't buy or sell anything, it is a complete myth. If BMW sell me a car they don't invoice UK who in turn invoice me.
I'd love to know how many people on this site make a living from buying and selling things, I'd guess very few.
I do. What will happen is that cost of doing business in the EU will increase without full access to the single market. It certainly costs us more to business in the US, Taiwan or Korea than it does to do it in the EU.
Nah. If the conferences you put on are good people will pay for them, its called trade. Its why Messi can choose his club and name his price and I can't. Its why we'll continue to buy BMWs and Chablis and people will still queue up outside Buckingham Palace.
We don't need a Eurpean Parliament telling us what we can and can't do.
There are price points. The EU keeps ours lower than would otherwise be the case. I am touched by your advice, but I fear you are wrong.
The vast of bulk of the difference is Ireland (£215m vs £19m), France (£147m vs £7m) and Spain (£223m vs £3m).
IIRC there has been push back from NHS staffers asking for identification / proof of nationality on the grounds it is racist or something, so a lot of it is down to our failures to claim.
But I'm intrigued with the claims by Ireland (unless there is something specific related to the North). I didn't think we had that many retirees in Ireland!
Just heard on BBC that the EU has decided to divert overseas aid to its own countries to help with the migration crisis.
I'm not sure that's what we had in mind for the (IIRC) £1.0 billion contribution that DfID make to the EU overseas aid budget.
Perhaps someone should point that out?
That is exactly what we want the aid budget to be used for.
Leavers seem to have lost all reason, all they ever do is portray anything which either the EU or any EU country does, even if it is exactly in our interests, as reprehensible.
I disagree.
DFiD's budget is specifically targeted at long-term projects, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and countries we have ties with. We also have a significant proportion allocated to disaster relief and refugee situations.
The UK government has decided that funds for the Syrian crisis should be very significant (I think we are the second largest donor?) but that it should be specifically applied inside or close to the Syrian borders.
And now a significant portion of our funding to the EU overseas aid budget is being applied somewhere that we *specifically decided* not to fund.
The vast of bulk of the difference is Ireland (£215m vs £19m), France (£147m vs £7m) and Spain (£223m vs £3m).
IIRC there has been push back from NHS staffers asking for identification / proof of nationality on the grounds it is racist or something, so a lot of it is down to our failures to claim.
But I'm intrigued with the claims by Ireland (unless there is something specific related to the North). I didn't think we had that many retirees in Ireland!
I thought retirees to other EU countries were responsible for their own healthcare costs and (in most countries) had to take out insurance? Maybe I've got that wrong.
Afternoon all. In case it's easier to look at here, here's a link to the full table:............1) Those advocating Leave have no agreement about what Britain's negotiating priorities should be in the event of Brexit. In fact, they can't even gather under a single banner. ....None of those differences suggest to me that we can look for the accelerator pedal to be hit.
Britain, being proportionately more dependent on trade with the EU than the EU is on trade with the UK, is in no position to set down preconditions. Moreover, different EU states have different interests and each has a veto.
Look, this is what happens.
If we Leave companies will continue to buy and sell stuff they want, countries don't buy or sell anything, it is a complete myth. If BMW sell me a car they don't invoice UK who in turn invoice me.
I'd love to know how many people on this site make a living from buying and selling things, I'd guess very few.
I do. What will happen is that cost of doing business in the EU will increase without full access to the single market. It certainly costs us more to business in the US, Taiwan or Korea than it does to do it in the EU.
Nah. If the conferences you put on are good people will pay for them, its called trade. Its why Messi can choose his club and name his price and I can't. Its why we'll continue to buy BMWs and Chablis and people will still queue up outside Buckingham Palace.
We don't need a Eurpean Parliament telling us what we can and can't do.
There are price points. The EU keeps ours lower than would otherwise be the case. I am touched by your advice, but I fear you are wrong.
You don't think the EU keeps the price of Chablis down do you?
Incidentally I'd be surprised if French wine exporters would be too keen on losing their British customers in the event of Leave, and the EU deciding to play hard ball. Bordeaux in particular would not be happy.
Look, good things are in demand, rubbish isn't. If we Leave the same companies that are currently doing well will continue to, those struggling will continue to, its what has happened over centuries.
Remember Woolworths? Ever been to Harrods? Neither is anything to do with EU membership.
I don't know about the other examples set out above, but the 8 years 5 months for South Korea - the EU's 9th largest trading partner - looks highly suspect.
This was in the Korea Times of 7th January 2009:
"Since the signing of an FTA with the United States [on June 30] 2007, South Korea has held seven rounds of negotiations with the EU,"
It was finally signed on 15th October, 2009
27 months. This was even allowing for difficulty in negotiating as "both sides have been reluctant to accept each other's demands on tariff reductions, rules of origin and auto trade and auto-related technical standards"
Here is a link to the document, that could be used as a template:
You'll find both on the table if you scroll down far enough. Mexico clocks in at 5 years 3 months, Canada is as yet unratified and currently at 6 years 6 months and counting.
Ok. Thank you.
Imagine We negotiate a trade deal of some sort with the EU - it drags along to June 2020, just in time for an incoming Corbyn Government to rip it up and start again. Indeed just in time for an incoming Corbyn Govt to apply to join the EU...
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
If "The Jungle" etc can be kept in the news for the next 3 months...
People may start listening when we've all got bored of hearing about it...
Look at the sample size. It really is a dead heat. After everything they've shouted in our faces. What can they threaten us with, next? Mongol Hordes in Swindon? Slaying of the second born?
England outside London must be favouring Leave by a significant margin if you accept that London and Scotland are heavily Remain.
Look at the sample size. It really is a dead heat. After everything they've shouted in our faces. What can they threaten us with, next? Mongol Hordes in Swindon? Slaying of the second born?
Loss of the future popular kids stories & modern architecture prizes...
DFiD's budget is specifically targeted at long-term projects, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and countries we have ties with. We also have a significant proportion allocated to disaster relief and refugee situations.
The UK government has decided that funds for the Syrian crisis should be very significant (I think we are the second largest donor?) but that it should be specifically applied inside or close to the Syrian borders.
And now a significant portion of our funding to the EU overseas aid budget is being applied somewhere that we *specifically decided* not to fund.
How is that right?
It's mainly destined for Greece (and Turkey) and will be used to set up camps there, I believe. That's in keeping with our policy of dealing with the problem as close as possible to Syria. Closer still would be better, of course, but that's not currently possible given the numbers of people and their whereabouts.
So we have had V2, bomb craters and the Battle of Britain.
There were no foreign troops marching down Whitehall which was my point.
I didn't say we were not in the war. affected by the war, I said "different perspective" on the war. No close combat. No foreign troops invaded us, which makes us almost unique as a European nation.
It's fair to say that we may well have a very different idea of freedom, democracy and dictatorship.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
If leave win on the basis of massive popular concern about what is happening on the frontiers of central Europe, there is not the faintest chance of the government hand waving it away and going for an EEA/EFTA solution, it would be political suicide, Corbyn or no Corbyn. The Tory loyalists are massively overconfident about how much leeway with the public the bearded tit gives them.
What is it about Leavers that makes them incapable of replying to my posts without misrepresenting my views?
As it happens, I think you might be right about EEA/EFTA, or at least you are right to agree with me that it would be a massive political row, both within the Conservative Party and in the the country as a whole. I have said this many times. The political fallout from the perceived betrayal could be huge.
On the other hand, the economic fallout from a non-EEA/EFTA option could also be huge.
I don't have a solution to this, but then I shall be voting Remain, so don't blame me.
There are some subtractions Leave could make on the duration of uncertainty, whichever exit they want as the end goal.
Article 50 offers a 2 year transition out of the EU, during which we would still have access to EU under the normal rules (though a few forward-looking programmes could be hit much more quickly - the Swiss have already been hit by suspension on programs which rely on future freedom of movement to which they cannot commit, their university sector is suffering already for being frozen out of Erasmus). But, those things aside, subtract 2 years from the time to get your trade deal.
Voting to leave the EU doesn't say anything about leaving the EEA of which we are also a member. I've seen this touched on a little here without great clarity - do we remain in the EEA and what bits does the EEA give us access to, even without EFTA association? Do we have the right to hang around in the EEA like a bad smell until such time as a full EEA exit can be coodinated with a completed trade deal or we conclude EFTA association talks? If there is no limit on EEA and the trade benefits can see us through transition, the EEA might be used to 'park' the UK medium-term until the alternative is fully defined? Subtract as many years as necessary, whilst retaining a very good degree of access to free trade (but also retaining freedom of movement for a while).
There is potentially a good deal of reassurance that LEAVE might be able to give in answer to the above if only (stuck record time) they bother to spell out what leave might look like.
Imagine We negotiate a trade deal of some sort with the EU - it drags along to June 2020, just in time for an incoming Corbyn Government to rip it up and start again. Indeed just in time for an incoming Corbyn Govt to apply to join the EU...
Indeed.
Imagine an EU where Jeremy Corbyn was in Britain's corner on the migrant issue, border controls to prevent terrorism, the EU budget.
Afternoon all. In case it's easier to look at here, here's a link to the full table:............1) Those advocating Leave have no agreement about what Britain's negotiating priorities should be in the event of Brexit. In fact, they can't even gather under a single banner. ....None of those differences suggest to me that we can look for the accelerator pedal to be hit.
Mr Meeks, any form of negotiations has to be set against the backdrop of who has most to gain and lose. In these international negotiations the larger trading partners within the EU rely on us to buy more of their goods than the figure we have to sell to them. Can Germany afford disruption in one of its biggest european purchasers of its goods at this time of economic low/no growth? The answer is no and that applies to the key EU countries. Because of this and other factors, deals can be done and we have cash and influence that can lubricate the process. We are no longer the sick man of Europe that we were in the 1970s.
Britain, being proportionately more dependent on trade with the EU than the EU is on trade with the UK, is in no position to set down preconditions. Moreover, different EU states have different interests and each has a veto.
Mr Meeks in cash terms more flows one way than the other. We spend more on their goods and we give more in tax money to them. We could also choose to substitute overseas aid for some of the lost tax. Why do you have such a low opinion on our abilities?
Long ago, in a galaxy far far away, Tatooine ran a trade deficit with the Empire. The Empire, though evil, was far larger than Tatooine. Tatooine sent 100% of its exports to the Empire (major sectors: commodities and death star components) while the Empire, being vastly larger, sent just 1% of its exports to Tatooine.
Do you really think that Tatooine could use its "cash power" to threaten the Empire?
But we don't send 100% of our exports though do we, it's 45% and falling.
More ludicrous tripe.
I'm trying to use a simple example so that everyone can see the fallacy in @TCPoliticalBetting's argument. Evidently I need to aim lower still.
Ah yes there was a documentary made about that where the plucky young lad from Tatooine decided he could have a more comfortable life by pledging fealty to the Empire
We all know the EU was founded to ensure a "safe and secure society".
I don't know about the other examples set out above, but the 8 years 5 months for South Korea - the EU's 9th largest trading partner - looks highly suspect.
This was in the Korea Times of 7th January 2009:
"Since the signing of an FTA with the United States [on June 30] 2007, South Korea has held seven rounds of negotiations with the EU,"
It was finally signed on 15th October, 2009
27 months. This was even allowing for difficulty in negotiating as "both sides have been reluctant to accept each other's demands on tariff reductions, rules of origin and auto trade and auto-related technical standards"
Here is a link to the document, that could be used as a template:
You'll find both on the table if you scroll down far enough. Mexico clocks in at 5 years 3 months, Canada is as yet unratified and currently at 6 years 6 months and counting.
Ok. Thank you.
Imagine We negotiate a trade deal of some sort with the EU - it drags along to June 2020, just in time for an incoming Corbyn Government to rip it up and start again. Indeed just in time for an incoming Corbyn Govt to apply to join the EU...
Ah, but I have a cunning plan. All negotiations for the Brexit documents will be undertaken in Middlesbrough. Curly meat paste sandwiches and lukewarm tea will served at 1.00 pm. The negotiations will be scheduled to go through to 9.00 pm, when the team will break for a curry at the local eat-all-you-can-for-a-fiver Taj. (Avoid the Ceylon Meat Special though guys - I'm not even sure it's meat...)
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
If "The Jungle" etc can be kept in the news for the next 3 months...
People may start listening when we've all got bored of hearing about it...
I begin to think this ludicrous bolloks is counter-productive for REMAIN. If you pump out 700 scare stories a minute, most of them absurd, then people will ignore the ones that actually contain some truth.
The vast of bulk of the difference is Ireland (£215m vs £19m), France (£147m vs £7m) and Spain (£223m vs £3m).
IIRC there has been push back from NHS staffers asking for identification / proof of nationality on the grounds it is racist or something, so a lot of it is down to our failures to claim.
But I'm intrigued with the claims by Ireland (unless there is something specific related to the North). I didn't think we had that many retirees in Ireland!
I thought retirees to other EU countries were responsible for their own healthcare costs and (in most countries) had to take out insurance? Maybe I've got that wrong.
I believe there is an European health card (don't think it is linked to the EU) that you can get which allows for reciprocal charging back to your domestic country. If you don't have that then, in theory, it is cash pay
IIRC there has been push back from NHS staffers asking for identification / proof of nationality on the grounds it is racist or something, so a lot of it is down to our failures to claim.
But I'm intrigued with the claims by Ireland (unless there is something specific related to the North). I didn't think we had that many retirees in Ireland!
Its not considered remotely racist if they come from outside the EU.
£150 per year as a student, eg £300 for a 2-year visa £200 per year for all other visa and immigration applications, eg £1,000 for a 5-year visa Dependants usually need to pay the same amount as you.
After which you get a nice Biometric identity card you are supposed to show whenever you want to use NHS services.
Imagine how much money £2-3000 is for a talented immigrant from the third world to find. Remember this money has to be paid upfront before they will even look at your visa application.
White Europeans having to provide identification = racist Brown people from outside the EU having to pay for and provide identification = just fine Funny old world.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
If the spring migration season is half as bad as is predicted.....
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
We have had Remain polling getting worse two weeks in a row now. How many weeks is it til the end of June? What will the warming weather do to the migrant flows? The result is genuinely open.
DFiD's budget is specifically targeted at long-term projects, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and countries we have ties with. We also have a significant proportion allocated to disaster relief and refugee situations.
The UK government has decided that funds for the Syrian crisis should be very significant (I think we are the second largest donor?) but that it should be specifically applied inside or close to the Syrian borders.
And now a significant portion of our funding to the EU overseas aid budget is being applied somewhere that we *specifically decided* not to fund.
How is that right?
It's mainly destined for Greece (and Turkey) and will be used to set up camps there, I believe. That's in keeping with our policy of dealing with the problem as close as possible to Syria. Closer still would be better, of course, but that's not currently possible given the numbers of people and their whereabouts.
Fundamentally we have a policy on how to deal with the refugee crisis in Syria. We are being very generous and very thoughtful about it.
Merkel created the problem in Greece - and now we are being asked to pay for her mistakes.
It's outrageous. (And - as you may recall - I am a strong supporter of overseas aid as a concept. Creating MERLIN is one of my Dad's achievements that I'm most proud of).
DFiD's budget is specifically targeted at long-term projects, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and countries we have ties with. We also have a significant proportion allocated to disaster relief and refugee situations.
The UK government has decided that funds for the Syrian crisis should be very significant (I think we are the second largest donor?) but that it should be specifically applied inside or close to the Syrian borders.
And now a significant portion of our funding to the EU overseas aid budget is being applied somewhere that we *specifically decided* not to fund.
How is that right?
It's mainly destined for Greece (and Turkey) and will be used to set up camps there, I believe. That's in keeping with our policy of dealing with the problem as close as possible to Syria. Closer still would be better, of course, but that's not currently possible given the numbers of people and their whereabouts.
I think you are right and we are earmarking more of our aid budget to be spent by the MoD and to areas in a fragile political and economic state. “putting international development at the heart of our national security and foreign policy” Aid will now be disbursed in ways that are “squarely in the UK’s national interest”. The NSC is in charge of a £1.3bn prosperity fund that will focus on issues like “improving the business climate”
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
Yep, the monkeys have already flung all their shit out the cage.
DFiD's budget is specifically targeted at long-term projects, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and countries we have ties with. We also have a significant proportion allocated to disaster relief and refugee situations.
The UK government has decided that funds for the Syrian crisis should be very significant (I think we are the second largest donor?) but that it should be specifically applied inside or close to the Syrian borders.
And now a significant portion of our funding to the EU overseas aid budget is being applied somewhere that we *specifically decided* not to fund.
How is that right?
It's mainly destined for Greece (and Turkey) and will be used to set up camps there, I believe. That's in keeping with our policy of dealing with the problem as close as possible to Syria. Closer still would be better, of course, but that's not currently possible given the numbers of people and their whereabouts.
Fundamentally we have a policy on how to deal with the refugee crisis in Syria. We are being very generous and very thoughtful about it.
Merkel created the problem in Greece - and now we are being asked to pay for her mistakes.
It's outrageous. (And - as you may recall - I am a strong supporter of overseas aid as a concept. Creating MERLIN is one of my Dad's achievements that I'm most proud of).
That's all true, but we are where we are. As I said upthread, we want other European states to defend their frontiers.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
IIRC there has been push back from NHS staffers asking for identification / proof of nationality on the grounds it is racist or something, so a lot of it is down to our failures to claim.
But I'm intrigued with the claims by Ireland (unless there is something specific related to the North). I didn't think we had that many retirees in Ireland!
Its not considered remotely racist if they come from outside the EU.
£150 per year as a student, eg £300 for a 2-year visa £200 per year for all other visa and immigration applications, eg £1,000 for a 5-year visa Dependants usually need to pay the same amount as you.
After which you get a nice Biometric identity card you are supposed to show whenever you want to use NHS services.
Imagine how much money £2-3000 is for a talented immigrant from the third world to find. Remember this money has to be paid upfront before they will even look at your visa application.
White Europeans having to provide identification = racist Brown people from outside the EU having to pay for and provide identification = just fine Funny old world.
The issue is that NHS staffers were instructed to ask people to show their identity card - and refused to ask on the grounds that it discriminated against illegal immigrants.
I don't know about the other examples set out above, but the 8 years 5 months for South Korea - the EU's 9th largest trading partner - looks highly suspect.
This was in the Korea Times of 7th January 2009:
"Since the signing of an FTA with the United States [on June 30] 2007, South Korea has held seven rounds of negotiations with the EU,"
It was finally signed on 15th October, 2009
27 months. This was even allowing for difficulty in negotiating as "both sides have been reluctant to accept each other's demands on tariff reductions, rules of origin and auto trade and auto-related technical standards"
Here is a link to the document, that could be used as a template:
You'll find both on the table if you scroll down far enough. Mexico clocks in at 5 years 3 months, Canada is as yet unratified and currently at 6 years 6 months and counting.
Ok. Thank you.
Imagine We negotiate a trade deal of some sort with the EU - it drags along to June 2020, just in time for an incoming Corbyn Government to rip it up and start again. Indeed just in time for an incoming Corbyn Govt to apply to join the EU...
Considering how many decades it takes to negotiate an accession there isn't a worry there, Tories will be in again before then.
I begin to think this ludicrous bolloks is counter-productive for REMAIN. If you pump out 700 scare stories a minute, most of them absurd, then people will ignore the ones that actually contain some truth.
REMAIN are playing this just as badly as LEAVE.
I think some of the claims, like tourists being stranded, or losing the Gruffalo, do provoke derisive laughter.
DFiD's budget is specifically targeted at long-term projects, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and countries we have ties with. We also have a significant proportion allocated to disaster relief and refugee situations.
The UK government has decided that funds for the Syrian crisis should be very significant (I think we are the second largest donor?) but that it should be specifically applied inside or close to the Syrian borders.
And now a significant portion of our funding to the EU overseas aid budget is being applied somewhere that we *specifically decided* not to fund.
How is that right?
It's mainly destined for Greece (and Turkey) and will be used to set up camps there, I believe. That's in keeping with our policy of dealing with the problem as close as possible to Syria. Closer still would be better, of course, but that's not currently possible given the numbers of people and their whereabouts.
I think you are right and we are earmarking more of our aid budget to be spent by the MoD and to areas in a fragile political and economic state. “putting international development at the heart of our national security and foreign policy” Aid will now be disbursed in ways that are “squarely in the UK’s national interest”. The NSC is in charge of a £1.3bn prosperity fund that will focus on issues like “improving the business climate”
IIRC there has been push back from NHS staffers asking for identification / proof of nationality on the grounds it is racist or something, so a lot of it is down to our failures to claim.
But I'm intrigued with the claims by Ireland (unless there is something specific related to the North). I didn't think we had that many retirees in Ireland!
Its not considered remotely racist if they come from outside the EU.
£150 per year as a student, eg £300 for a 2-year visa £200 per year for all other visa and immigration applications, eg £1,000 for a 5-year visa Dependants usually need to pay the same amount as you.
After which you get a nice Biometric identity card you are supposed to show whenever you want to use NHS services.
Imagine how much money £2-3000 is for a talented immigrant from the third world to find. Remember this money has to be paid upfront before they will even look at your visa application.
White Europeans having to provide identification = racist Brown people from outside the EU having to pay for and provide identification = just fine Funny old world.
The issue is that NHS staffers were instructed to ask people to show their identity card - and refused to ask on the grounds that it discriminated against illegal immigrants.
Utterly barmy. It also discriminates against people who aren't entitled to free treatment. Boo-bloody-hoo.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Phew that okay, everyone relax, remain still running off over the horizon..... maybe.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
I believe there is an European health card (don't think it is linked to the EU) that you can get which allows for reciprocal charging back to your domestic country. If you don't have that then, in theory, it is cash pay
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
Meteor strike? nuclear winter? Mars Invades?
Brexit = Risk to your pensions.
That'll get the older voters out in force backing Remain.
We saw it was the falling pound polling today.
Coupled with lots of businesses and banks a la the Indyref backing up that message.
I believe there is an European health card (don't think it is linked to the EU) that you can get which allows for reciprocal charging back to your domestic country. If you don't have that then, in theory, it is cash pay
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
We have had Remain polling getting worse two weeks in a row now. How many weeks is it til the end of June? What will the warming weather do to the migrant flows? The result is genuinely open.
Yes. I was absolutely sure we'd see a big shift to REMAIN after the last week. It's probably been their best week in terms of hammering home PROJECT AAAAARGH.
Yet, zip. This must give real hope to LEAVERS.
The big problem with Remain constantly banging on about the "Uncertainty of Leaving" is that it just brings into sharp relief their offering: the "Certainty of Staying". That certainty is on the TV night after night. The Jungle. Rubber bullets fired at borders. Children choking on tear gas. Greece again on the verge of collapse. Angela Merkel and her refusal to countenance a Plan B. And here we are, home to the Mother of Parliaments, unable to do anything to make her rethink.
Give me uncertainty over that, every time. At least uncertainty holds out the chance of hope. ICM is entirely understandable.
Ciaran JenkinsVerified account @C4Ciaran 1m1 minute ago Bradford, England Jury found Adam Johnson guilty of sexual activity with child by majority of 10-2.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
Yep, the monkeys have already flung all their shit out the cage.
I think some on the leave side are becoming complacent. There is a long way to go and the releases from remain this week provide an insight into where the campaign will be argued but leave need to get away from crying 'dodgy dossiers' and 'project fear' and start engaging with their alternative vision of for the Country. It would be a start if they would with one voice agree that for a few years there will be a negative impact on growth but that they will be able to negotiate trade deals without free movement of labour to provide the mechanism to control immigration. They also need to recognise that we already are in control of our borders re the migration crisis and David Cameron is not going to agree anytime soon, whether in or out, to accept migrants flooding into Europe, though families and children who have family ties here should be allowed in to comply with International Law
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
Yep, the monkeys have already flung all their shit out the cage.
I think some on the leave side are becoming complacent. There is a long way to go and the releases from remain this week provide an insight into where the campaign will be argued but leave need to get away from crying 'dodgy dossiers' and 'project fear' and start engaging with their alternative vision of for the Country. It would be a start if they would with one voice agree that for a few years there will be a negative impact on growth but that they will be able to negotiate trade deals without free movement of labour to provide the mechanism to control immigration. They also need to recognise that we already are in control of our borders re the migration crisis and David Cameron is not going to agree anytime soon, whether in or out, to accept migrants flooding into Europe, though families and children who have family ties here should be allowed in to comply with International Law
Comments
You'll find both on the table if you scroll down far enough. Mexico clocks in at 5 years 3 months, Canada is as yet unratified and currently at 6 years 6 months and counting.
AFAIK Leave don't edit the 6 o'clock news.
As it happens, I think you might be right about EEA/EFTA, or at least you are right to agree with me that it would be a massive political row, both within the Conservative Party and in the the country as a whole. I have said this many times. The political fallout from the perceived betrayal could be huge.
On the other hand, the economic fallout from a non-EEA/EFTA option could also be huge.
I don't have a solution to this, but then I shall be voting Remain, so don't blame me.
The haggling I think would be over services. The EU has loads of Free Trade Agreements and the UK would definitely get one too. Unfortunately for the UK, trade agreements tend to facilitate goods rather than services, but the UK is stronger than rEU on services while having a deficit on goods. Several countries have looked at our service industries and thought, wouldn't mind a bit of that. The default, unless negotiated differently, will be barriers on those services. I think the UK will have to accept the loss of a chunk of its services exports to get the deal.
https://twitter.com/JohnMannMP
In time the Remainers will be seen as the purveyors of a totally dishonest campaign, and they will all lose whatever credibility they have left, including many on here.
There are two scenarios, the first is Leave win and none, or at least very little, of the Doomsday scenario they bleat on about actually comes to pass. It is quite likely in fact that within a reasonable amount of time the UK would flourish, and all those dismal soothsayers will look as foolish as Blair, Mandelson, Rudd, Heseltine, Clarke etc do after their ludicrous Euro statements.
Second scenario is that Remain win and all the things they said would never happen actually do happen, as we all know they will, and Cameron's 'tough negotiation' is shown up to be not worth the paper it is written on. It won't take much, just the first time we are discriminated against, asked to contribute to a bailout etc.
Either way history will show that those who now espouse the virtues of Remain and try to bully the rest of us with Project Fear will be proven to be dishonest, gullible, stupid or all three.
Perhaps someone should point that out?
Do you really think that Tatooine could use its "cash power" to threaten the Empire?
Leavers seem to have lost all reason, all they ever do is portray anything which either the EU or any EU country does, even if it is exactly in our interests, as reprehensible.
Complete the course 6/4
Finish in the first three 8/1
https://t.co/wopkcIIwIA https://t.co/1hhKXPMi1D
We don't need a Eurpean Parliament telling us what we can and can't do.
More ludicrous tripe.
Trump 42%
Cruz 35%
Rubio 17%
http://www.mann4bassetlaw.com/john_mann_mp_reveals_massive_european_health_bill_for_uk
I could write all day about the wonderful things EU countries do and what wonderful places they are. Without exception the EU countries I've visited are great places.
Where you and I part is I don't need idiots telling me what I can buy or sell.
IIRC there has been push back from NHS staffers asking for identification / proof of nationality on the grounds it is racist or something, so a lot of it is down to our failures to claim.
But I'm intrigued with the claims by Ireland (unless there is something specific related to the North). I didn't think we had that many retirees in Ireland!
DFiD's budget is specifically targeted at long-term projects, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and countries we have ties with. We also have a significant proportion allocated to disaster relief and refugee situations.
The UK government has decided that funds for the Syrian crisis should be very significant (I think we are the second largest donor?) but that it should be specifically applied inside or close to the Syrian borders.
And now a significant portion of our funding to the EU overseas aid budget is being applied somewhere that we *specifically decided* not to fund.
How is that right?
How much tax do we get from the French who have fled Hollande_land to live in the UK?
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-1)
LEAVE 41 (+1)
26th-29th
N=2,003
https://t.co/wsTDoKNiIa
#EUreferendum #Brexit #UKinEU https://t.co/OVR3K32IMC
Incidentally I'd be surprised if French wine exporters would be too keen on losing their British customers in the event of Leave, and the EU deciding to play hard ball. Bordeaux in particular would not be happy.
No I'm not wrong and I gave no advice.
Look, good things are in demand, rubbish isn't. If we Leave the same companies that are currently doing well will continue to, those struggling will continue to, its what has happened over centuries.
Remember Woolworths? Ever been to Harrods? Neither is anything to do with EU membership.
We negotiate a trade deal of some sort with the EU - it drags along to June 2020, just in time for an incoming Corbyn Government to rip it up and start again. Indeed just in time for an incoming Corbyn Govt to apply to join the EU...
People may start listening when we've all got bored of hearing about it...
WW2 didn't end all European dictatorships.
Article 50 offers a 2 year transition out of the EU, during which we would still have access to EU under the normal rules (though a few forward-looking programmes could be hit much more quickly - the Swiss have already been hit by suspension on programs which rely on future freedom of movement to which they cannot commit, their university sector is suffering already for being frozen out of Erasmus). But, those things aside, subtract 2 years from the time to get your trade deal.
Voting to leave the EU doesn't say anything about leaving the EEA of which we are also a member. I've seen this touched on a little here without great clarity - do we remain in the EEA and what bits does the EEA give us access to, even without EFTA association? Do we have the right to hang around in the EEA like a bad smell until such time as a full EEA exit can be coodinated with a completed trade deal or we conclude EFTA association talks? If there is no limit on EEA and the trade benefits can see us through transition, the EEA might be used to 'park' the UK medium-term until the alternative is fully defined? Subtract as many years as necessary, whilst retaining a very good degree of access to free trade (but also retaining freedom of movement for a while).
There is potentially a good deal of reassurance that LEAVE might be able to give in answer to the above if only (stuck record time) they bother to spell out what leave might look like.
Imagine an EU where Jeremy Corbyn was in Britain's corner on the migrant issue, border controls to prevent terrorism, the EU budget.
Saturdays and Sundays will be work days.
It would be done within 3 weeks, tops.
http://www.nhs.uk/NHSEngland/Healthcareabroad/EHIC/Pages/about-the-ehic.aspx
Quilted and plain to cater for both ends of the market. Moist ones are too niche.
Edit, and Izal Medicated for all EU negotiations.
https://www.gov.uk/healthcare-immigration-application/overview After which you get a nice Biometric identity card you are supposed to show whenever you want to use NHS services.
Imagine how much money £2-3000 is for a talented immigrant from the third world to find. Remember this money has to be paid upfront before they will even look at your visa application.
White Europeans having to provide identification = racist
Brown people from outside the EU having to pay for and provide identification = just fine
Funny old world.
Merkel created the problem in Greece - and now we are being asked to pay for her mistakes.
It's outrageous. (And - as you may recall - I am a strong supporter of overseas aid as a concept. Creating MERLIN is one of my Dad's achievements that I'm most proud of).
“putting international development at the heart of our national security and foreign policy”
Aid will now be disbursed in ways that are “squarely in the UK’s national interest”.
The NSC is in charge of a £1.3bn prosperity fund that will focus on issues like “improving the business climate”
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
Imagine how much money £2-3000 is for a talented immigrant from the third world to find. Remember this money has to be paid upfront before they will even look at your visa application.
White Europeans having to provide identification = racist
Brown people from outside the EU having to pay for and provide identification = just fine
Funny old world.
The issue is that NHS staffers were instructed to ask people to show their identity card - and refused to ask on the grounds that it discriminated against illegal immigrants.
Utterly barmy. It also discriminates against people who aren't entitled to free treatment. Boo-bloody-hoo.
Villi Wilson
Voter turnout is breaking records on the exciting GOP side
the real story is that Reagan Democrats are coming home https://t.co/PreWu6vBJo
I suspect that the real problem here is simply that the NHS is not set up to charge patients, whereas most continental systems are.
That'll get the older voters out in force backing Remain.
We saw it was the falling pound polling today.
Coupled with lots of businesses and banks a la the Indyref backing up that message.
It's the economy, stupid.
http://www.dcbmep.org/norwegian-ambassador-reveals-norway-doesnt-pay-for-eu-single-market-access/
the NHS staffers (from the media) are pretty resistant to implementing the current charging rules
Give me uncertainty over that, every time. At least uncertainty holds out the chance of hope. ICM is entirely understandable.
Jury found Adam Johnson guilty of sexual activity with child by majority of 10-2.
We're expecting to lose and are fighting like Hell to change the odds against us.