Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
Yep, the monkeys have already flung all their shit out the cage.
I think some on the leave side are becoming complacent. There is a long way to go and the releases from remain this week provide an insight into where the campaign will be argued but leave need to get away from crying 'dodgy dossiers' and 'project fear' and start engaging with their alternative vision of for the Country. It would be a start if they would with one voice agree that for a few years there will be a negative impact on growth but that they will be able to negotiate trade deals without free movement of labour to provide the mechanism to control immigration. They also need to recognise that we already are in control of our borders re the migration crisis and David Cameron is not going to agree anytime soon, whether in or out, to accept migrants flooding into Europe, though families and children who have family ties here should be allowed in to comply with International Law
I only said some Plato and you were not one of them
IIRC there has been push back from NHS staffers asking for identification / proof of nationality on the grounds it is racist or something, so a lot of it is down to our failures to claim.
But I'm intrigued with the claims by Ireland (unless there is something specific related to the North). I didn't think we had that many retirees in Ireland!
Its not considered remotely racist if they come from outside the EU.
£150 per year as a student, eg £300 for a 2-year visa £200 per year for all other visa and immigration applications, eg £1,000 for a 5-year visa Dependants usually need to pay the same amount as you.
After which you get a nice Biometric identity card you are supposed to show whenever you want to use NHS services.
Imagine how much money £2-3000 is for a talented immigrant from the third world to find. Remember this money has to be paid upfront before they will even look at your visa application.
White Europeans having to provide identification = racist Brown people from outside the EU having to pay for and provide identification = just fine Funny old world.
The issue is that NHS staffers were instructed to ask people to show their identity card - and refused to ask on the grounds that it discriminated against illegal immigrants.
Yes they're idiots.
My point was that it is too late for legal immigrants, they have been stiffed for a huge chunk of cash up front to give them a card, which presumably the muppets on the desk then don't ask for.
An IT consultant of my acquaintance here applied for a visa to the UK, very talented woman, got a job offer easily. So they have to apply for a visa. It's £1000 quid to apply for the visa. Before you get through the door of the visa centre you have to pay your NHS Surcharge. For her and her husband that is £2000. So £3000 to make the application, which can take several weeks to approve. What's the catch ? An IT consultant makes about £800 per month here before tax.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
So has LEAVE. The migrants in the Med. The timing is exquisitely bad for Cameron.
And, PS, they have definitely started campaigning. They've already used many of their "best" arguments. Got the FTSE letter out. Got the soldiers to loyally salute the EU flag. Got the dossier published. Got Prince William to drop hints. Got the big Gruffalo thingy in the Guardian.
You can't keep publishing dossiers, and getting Richard Branson to warn us of famine from his Cayman villa, and telling us that Eeyore will die if we quit.
My well-informed guess is that Cameron fully expected to be 15-20 points ahead by now in all polls, as an insurance against some Scottish-style narrowing, down the line. Oops.
My guess and I've said it before was that the plan was for the referendum to be out of the way before the migrant crisis become too obvious to avoid (which was probably expected to be in August). Sadly the sheer numbers arriving now have thrown that plan out of the water - although whatever we see now is going to be no where near as bad as what we will see in August...
Worse Greece is going to enter another recession. I really don't see many tourists heading there from now on....
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
So has LEAVE. The migrants in the Med. The timing is exquisitely bad for Cameron.
And, PS, they have definitely started campaigning. They've already used many of their "best" arguments. Got the FTSE letter out. Got the soldiers to loyally salute the EU flag. Got the dossier published. Got Prince William to drop hints. Got the big Gruffalo thingy in the Guardian.
You can't keep publishing dossiers, and getting Richard Branson to warn us of famine from his Cayman villa, and telling us that Eeyore will die if we quit.
My well-informed guess is that Cameron fully expected to be 15-20 points ahead by now in all polls, as an insurance against some Scottish-style narrowing, down the line. Oops.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
Cameron's lucky, if it continues, Leave will still be disorganised, and there's no migrant crisis.
I think what has freaked him is the number of senior Tories backing Leave.
I had a chat with someone from CCHQ before Christmas, they were expecting Grayling and IDS, and about 80 MPs.
On these figures with the Yougov advice, LEAVE are in the lead.
That recent Yougov article said that the ratio of 18-24 to 65+ should be 3:1. With this ICM it is just under a 2:1 ratio. WIth this survey 18-24 had Remain 53% LEAVE 20%. The 65+ are 31% Remain 56% Leave.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
So has LEAVE. The migrants in the Med. The timing is exquisitely bad for Cameron.
And, PS, they have definitely started campaigning. They've already used many of their "best" arguments. Got the FTSE letter out. Got the soldiers to loyally salute the EU flag. Got the dossier published. Got Prince William to drop hints. Got the big Gruffalo thingy in the Guardian.
You can't keep publishing dossiers, and getting Richard Branson to warn us of famine from his Cayman villa, and telling us that Eeyore will die if we quit.
My well-informed guess is that Cameron fully expected to be 15-20 points ahead by now in all polls, as an insurance against some Scottish-style narrowing, down the line. Oops.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
Cameron's lucky, if it continues, Leave will still be disorganised, and there's no migrant crisis.
I think what has freaked him is the number of senior Tories backing Leave.
I had a chat with someone from CCHQ before Christmas, they were expecting Grayling and IDS, and about 80 MPs.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
Yep, the monkeys have already flung all their shit out the cage.
I think some on the leave side are becoming complacent. There is a long way to go and the releases from remain this week provide an insight into where the campaign will be argued but leave need to get away from crying 'dodgy dossiers' and 'project fear' and start engaging with their alternative vision of for the Country. It would be a start if they would with one voice agree that for a few years there will be a negative impact on growth but that they will be able to negotiate trade deals without free movement of labour to provide the mechanism to control immigration. They also need to recognise that we already are in control of our borders re the migration crisis and David Cameron is not going to agree anytime soon, whether in or out, to accept migrants flooding into Europe, though families and children who have family ties here should be allowed in to comply with International Law
I only said some Plato and you were not one of them
Yu have a point. As Chestnut said downthread, LEAVE should not rely on refugees and European financial woe to do its job for it.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
Smirking Osborne poses a greater threat to old age, than Brexit.
It's not Osborne - it's all us oldies living longer and longer with fewer young ones to pay the frightening and unsustainable future pensions. I am not a great fan of Osborne but he is only doing what any responsible Chancellor must do
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
So has LEAVE. The migrants in the Med. The timing is exquisitely bad for Cameron.
And, PS, they have definitely started campaigning. They've already used many of their "best" arguments. Got the FTSE letter out. Got the soldiers to loyally salute the EU flag. Got the dossier published. Got Prince William to drop hints. Got the big Gruffalo thingy in the Guardian.
You can't keep publishing dossiers, and getting Richard Branson to warn us of famine from his Cayman villa, and telling us that Eeyore will die if we quit.
My well-informed guess is that Cameron fully expected to be 15-20 points ahead by now in all polls, as an insurance against some Scottish-style narrowing, down the line. Oops.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
Is "he" really leading in the phone polls? Their weighting looks wrong. But if misleading people is ok.....
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
So has LEAVE. The migrants in the Med. The timing is exquisitely bad for Cameron.
And, PS, they have definitely started campaigning. They've already used many of their "best" arguments. Got the FTSE letter out. Got the soldiers to loyally salute the EU flag. Got the dossier published. Got Prince William to drop hints. Got the big Gruffalo thingy in the Guardian.
You can't keep publishing dossiers, and getting Richard Branson to warn us of famine from his Cayman villa, and telling us that Eeyore will die if we quit.
My well-informed guess is that Cameron fully expected to be 15-20 points ahead by now in all polls, as an insurance against some Scottish-style narrowing, down the line. Oops.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
Cameron's lucky, if it continues, Leave will still be disorganised, and there's no migrant crisis.
I think what has freaked him is the number of senior Tories backing Leave.
I had a chat with someone from CCHQ before Christmas, they were expecting Grayling and IDS, and about 80 MPs.
On these figures with the Yougov advice, LEAVE are in the lead.
That recent Yougov article said that the ratio of 18-24 to 65+ should be 3:1. With this ICM it is just under a 2:1 ratio. WIth this survey 18-24 had Remain 53% LEAVE 20%. The 65+ are 31% Remain 56% Leave.
If the online polls are right, and the oldies turnout but the young do not, then Leave wins.
However, the anecdotal evidence from my social circle (very AB, graduate, post-graduate, professional and in London and the South-East) is the other way and they're all going all gaylord ponceyboots with the scaremongering.
Perhaps the rest of the country are made of sterner stuff.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
So has LEAVE. The migrants in the Med. The timing is exquisitely bad for Cameron.
And, PS, they have definitely started campaigning. They've already used many of their "best" arguments. Got the FTSE letter out. Got the soldiers to loyally salute the EU flag. Got the dossier published. Got Prince William to drop hints. Got the big Gruffalo thingy in the Guardian.
You can't keep publishing dossiers, and getting Richard Branson to warn us of famine from his Cayman villa, and telling us that Eeyore will die if we quit.
My well-informed guess is that Cameron fully expected to be 15-20 points ahead by now in all polls, as an insurance against some Scottish-style narrowing, down the line. Oops.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
Cameron's lucky, if it continues, Leave will still be disorganised, and there's no migrant crisis.
I think what has freaked him is the number of senior Tories backing Leave.
I had a chat with someone from CCHQ before Christmas, they were expecting Grayling and IDS, and about 80 MPs.
Ciaran JenkinsVerified account @C4Ciaran 1m1 minute ago Bradford, England Jury found Adam Johnson guilty of sexual activity with child by majority of 10-2.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
Smirking Osborne poses a greater threat to old age, than Brexit.
It's not Osborne - it's all us oldies living longer and longer with fewer young ones to pay the frightening and unsustainable future pensions. I am not a great fan of Osborne but he is only doing what any responsible Chancellor must do
But he's targetting future oldies, not the baby boomer current oldies who are the ones who are costing the money.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
Smirking Osborne poses a greater threat to old age, than Brexit.
It's not Osborne - it's all us oldies living longer and longer with fewer young ones to pay the frightening and unsustainable future pensions. I am not a great fan of Osborne but he is only doing what any responsible Chancellor must do
Cutting a few things might not go amiss, rather than just reducing the rate of increase.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
Meteor strike? nuclear winter? Mars Invades?
Brexit = Risk to your pensions.
That'll get the older voters out in force backing Remain.
We saw it was the falling pound polling today.
Coupled with lots of businesses and banks a la the Indyref backing up that message.
It's the economy, stupid.
I've already warmed up Vote Leave that that's coming in my letter.
They need to be ready to shoot it down with a mini-gun when it comes.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
Meteor strike? nuclear winter? Mars Invades?
Brexit = Risk to your pensions.
That'll get the older voters out in force backing Remain.
We saw it was the falling pound polling today.
Coupled with lots of businesses and banks a la the Indyref backing up that message.
It's the economy, stupid.
We don't need to be in a political union with other countries to trade with them.
I think the reason why doctors sometimes don't want to have to check eligiblity is that it might show how many non existant patients they are prescribing for...
Ciaran JenkinsVerified account @C4Ciaran 1m1 minute ago Bradford, England Jury found Adam Johnson guilty of sexual activity with child by majority of 10-2.
Sentencing guidelines?
Complicated, the grooming angle screws him on that front.
This wasn't something that happened on the spur of the moment.
IIRC there has been push back from NHS staffers asking for identification / proof of nationality on the grounds it is racist or something, so a lot of it is down to our failures to claim.
But I'm intrigued with the claims by Ireland (unless there is something specific related to the North). I didn't think we had that many retirees in Ireland!
Its not considered remotely racist if they come from outside the EU.
£150 per year as a student, eg £300 for a 2-year visa £200 per year for all other visa and immigration applications, eg £1,000 for a 5-year visa Dependants usually need to pay the same amount as you.
After which you get a nice Biometric identity card you are supposed to show whenever you want to use NHS services.
Imagine how much money £2-3000 is for a talented immigrant from the third world to find. Remember this money has to be paid upfront before they will even look at your visa application.
White Europeans having to provide identification = racist Brown people from outside the EU having to pay for and provide identification = just fine Funny old world.
The issue is that NHS staffers were instructed to ask people to show their identity card - and refused to ask on the grounds that it discriminated against illegal immigrants.
Yes they're idiots.
My point was that it is too late for legal immigrants, they have been stiffed for a huge chunk of cash up front to give them a card, which presumably the muppets on the desk then don't ask for.
An IT consultant of my acquaintance here applied for a visa to the UK, very talented woman, got a job offer easily. So they have to apply for a visa. It's £1000 quid to apply for the visa. Before you get through the door of the visa centre you have to pay your NHS Surcharge. For her and her husband that is £2000. So £3000 to make the application, which can take several weeks to approve. What's the catch ? An IT consultant makes about £800 per month here before tax.
If you hear of any more talented IT consultants happy to come to the UK to work for under £10kpa do let me know, we're buyers at that level.
I think the reason why doctors sometimes don't want to have to check eligiblity is that it might show how many non existant patients they are prescribing for...
..and if they h ad to char g e a fiver to see a doctor... the surgeries would empty and loads of doctors would become unemployed.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
Smirking Osborne poses a greater threat to old age, than Brexit.
It's not Osborne - it's all us oldies living longer and longer with fewer young ones to pay the frightening and unsustainable future pensions. I am not a great fan of Osborne but he is only doing what any responsible Chancellor must do
But he's targetting future oldies, not the baby boomer current oldies who are the ones who are costing the money.
While I would like to have many more years these projections are into the 2060's and it is unlikely I can have much influence on the pensions of my grandchildren and beyond
On these figures with the Yougov advice, LEAVE are in the lead.
That recent Yougov article said that the ratio of 18-24 to 65+ should be 3:1. With this ICM it is just under a 2:1 ratio. WIth this survey 18-24 had Remain 53% LEAVE 20%. The 65+ are 31% Remain 56% Leave.
If the online polls are right, and the oldies turnout but the young do not, then Leave wins. However, the anecdotal evidence from my social circle (very AB, graduate, post-graduate, professional and in London and the South-East) is the other way and they're all going all gaylord ponceyboots with the scaremongering. Perhaps the rest of the country are made of sterner stuff.
Your social circle are I suggest not 18-24. The 25-34 are 53% remain 32% leave and AB 51% R 31% L in this ICM.
I think the reason why doctors sometimes don't want to have to check eligiblity is that it might show how many non existant patients they are prescribing for...
..and if they h ad to char g e a fiver to see a doctor... the surgeries would empty and loads of doctors would become unemployed.
Is that a bad thing? If a £5 charge drops visits by that much, surely they must be dealing with many frivolous medical issues which dont justify a visit to the doctor.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
Smirking Osborne poses a greater threat to old age, than Brexit.
It's not Osborne - it's all us oldies living longer and longer with fewer young ones to pay the frightening and unsustainable future pensions. I am not a great fan of Osborne but he is only doing what any responsible Chancellor must do
But he's targetting future oldies, not the baby boomer current oldies who are the ones who are costing the money.
Because our generation has time to save for alternative solutions. The boomers do not.
I fully expect not to get a meaningful state pension and view any I do ultimately get as a bonus.
I think the reason why doctors sometimes don't want to have to check eligiblity is that it might show how many non existant patients they are prescribing for...
..and if they h ad to char g e a fiver to see a doctor... the surgeries would empty and loads of doctors would become unemployed.
Is that a bad thing? If a £5 charge drops visits by that much, surely they must be dealing with many frivolous medical issues which dont justify a visit to the doctor.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
Most of my bets have been on Leave, but not much, in the grand scheme of things.
I think the reason why doctors sometimes don't want to have to check eligiblity is that it might show how many non existant patients they are prescribing for...
..and if they h ad to char g e a fiver to see a doctor... the surgeries would empty and loads of doctors would become unemployed.
Is that a bad thing? If a £5 charge drops visits by that much, surely they must be dealing with many frivolous medical issues which dont justify a visit to the doctor.
I still believe its going to be Labour voters that win this for Leave, most are meh about the EU, it just doesn't get them as excited as it does the Tories. A big chunk will either not bother to vote or take the opportunity to kick Cameron's arse. Unlike the Labour party plenty have big immigration concerns, barbed wire fences will get the WWC voting, that's for sure.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
Remember he will be standing down in the next couple of years or so and should Boris succeed him ironically it would be at Boris door the problem would land
I think the reason why doctors sometimes don't want to have to check eligiblity is that it might show how many non existant patients they are prescribing for...
..and if they h ad to char g e a fiver to see a doctor... the surgeries would empty and loads of doctors would become unemployed.
Is that a bad thing? If a £5 charge drops visits by that much, surely they must be dealing with many frivolous medical issues which dont justify a visit to the doctor.
My late wife was a GP she saw the realities...
Which were?
Lots of people o people didn't actually need to see a doctor...
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
If it's 51-49 I'd expect a second referendum in the next Parliament.
IIRC there has been push back from NHS staffers asking for identification / proof of nationality on the grounds it is racist or something, so a lot of it is down to our failures to claim.
But I'm intrigued with the claims by Ireland (unless there is something specific related to the North). I didn't think we had that many retirees in Ireland!
Its not considered remotely racist if they come from outside the EU.
£150 per year as a student, eg £300 for a 2-year visa £200 per year for all other visa and immigration applications, eg £1,000 for a 5-year visa Dependants usually need to pay the same amount as you.
After which you get a nice Biometric identity card you are supposed to show whenever you want to use NHS services.
Imagine how much money £2-3000 is for a talented immigrant from the third world to find. Remember this money has to be paid upfront before they will even look at your visa application.
White Europeans having to provide identification = racist Brown people from outside the EU having to pay for and provide identification = just fine Funny old world.
The issue is that NHS staffers were instructed to ask people to show their identity card - and refused to ask on the grounds that it discriminated against illegal immigrants.
Yes they're idiots.
My point was that it is too late for legal immigrants, they have been stiffed for a huge chunk of cash up front to give them a card, which presumably the muppets on the desk then don't ask for.
An IT consultant of my acquaintance here applied for a visa to the UK, very talented woman, got a job offer easily. So they have to apply for a visa. It's £1000 quid to apply for the visa. Before you get through the door of the visa centre you have to pay your NHS Surcharge. For her and her husband that is £2000. So £3000 to make the application, which can take several weeks to approve. What's the catch ? An IT consultant makes about £800 per month here before tax.
If you hear of any more talented IT consultants happy to come to the UK to work for under £10kpa do let me know, we're buyers at that level.
Not sure you read that quite right.
Here in the Philippines they make under £10K pa which is damn good money here. It is also next to impossible to borrow money here except on the informal market. That does make fronting £3k for your visa application a touch difficult. More to the point it is hideously unfair if we make people do that, and then don't check so the illegals that have paid nothing get the same treatment that these people have paid 4 months salary to obtain.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
Remember he will be standing down in the next couple of years or so and should Boris succeed him ironically it would be at Boris door the problem would land
But Boris can say "I advised you not to vote that way, I have clean hands". Osborne can say "I am f***ked"
IIRC there has been push back from NHS staffers asking for identification / proof of nationality on the grounds it is racist or something, so a lot of it is down to our failures to claim.
But I'm intrigued with the claims by Ireland (unless there is something specific related to the North). I didn't think we had that many retirees in Ireland!
Its not considered remotely racist if they come from outside the EU.
£150 per year as a student, eg £300 for a 2-year visa £200 per year for all other visa and immigration applications, eg £1,000 for a 5-year visa Dependants usually need to pay the same amount as you.
After which you get a nice Biometric identity card you are supposed to show whenever you want to use NHS services.
Imagine how much money £2-3000 is for a talented immigrant from the third world to find. Remember this money has to be paid upfront before they will even look at your visa application.
White Europeans having to provide identification = racist Brown people from outside the EU having to pay for and provide identification = just fine Funny old world.
The issue is that NHS staffers were instructed to ask people to show their identity card - and refused to ask on the grounds that it discriminated against illegal immigrants.
Yes they're idiots.
My point was that it is too late for legal immigrants, they have been stiffed for a huge chunk of cash up front to give them a card, which presumably the muppets on the desk then don't ask for.
An IT consultant of my acquaintance here applied for a visa to the UK, very talented woman, got a job offer easily. So they have to apply for a visa. It's £1000 quid to apply for the visa. Before you get through the door of the visa centre you have to pay your NHS Surcharge. For her and her husband that is £2000. So £3000 to make the application, which can take several weeks to approve. What's the catch ? An IT consultant makes about £800 per month here before tax.
If you hear of any more talented IT consultants happy to come to the UK to work for under £10kpa do let me know, we're buyers at that level.
I think "here" means the Philippines, not the UK - basically they have to save most of their post tax salary for a year in order to be able to afford the application
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
If it's 51-49 I'd expect a second referendum in the next Parliament.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
If it's 51-49 I'd expect a second referendum in the next Parliament.
How would that be legislated for with a large number of Labour, SNP, etc against and almost certainly the House of Lords would have a huge majority against
On these figures with the Yougov advice, LEAVE are in the lead.
That recent Yougov article said that the ratio of 18-24 to 65+ should be 3:1. With this ICM it is just under a 2:1 ratio. WIth this survey 18-24 had Remain 53% LEAVE 20%. The 65+ are 31% Remain 56% Leave.
If the online polls are right, and the oldies turnout but the young do not, then Leave wins.
However, the anecdotal evidence from my social circle (very AB, graduate, post-graduate, professional and in London and the South-East) is the other way and they're all going all gaylord ponceyboots with the scaremongering.
Perhaps the rest of the country are made of sterner stuff.
The referendum won't be decided in London and the South East, it'll be decided in the Midlands, Yorkshire, the North East, Wales. A good result for Remain in London and the SE is already priced in to most people's predictions.
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
So has LEAVE. The migrants in the Med. The timing is exquisitely bad for Cameron.
And, PS, they have definitely started campaigning. They've already used many of their "best" arguments. Got the FTSE letter out. Got the soldiers to loyally salute the EU flag. Got the dossier published. Got Prince William to drop hints. Got the big Gruffalo thingy in the Guardian.
You can't keep publishing dossiers, and getting Richard Branson to warn us of famine from his Cayman villa, and telling us that Eeyore will die if we quit.
My well-informed guess is that Cameron fully expected to be 15-20 points ahead by now in all polls, as an insurance against some Scottish-style narrowing, down the line. Oops.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
Cameron's lucky, if it continues, Leave will still be disorganised, and there's no migrant crisis.
I think what has freaked him is the number of senior Tories backing Leave.
I had a chat with someone from CCHQ before Christmas, they were expecting Grayling and IDS, and about 80 MPs.
Wishful thinking on the migrant front, I fear.
It's also wishful thinking on the polls front. What if, this time, the online polls are more accurate, and something about landlines is screwing the data? Who, after the GE, can claim that they know, for sure? They can't.
SeanT - just start looking at the dubious weightings. Who really believes the young will come out and vote?
Vladimir Putin is purposefully creating a refugee crisis in order to “overwhelm” and “break” Europe, Nato’s military commander in Europe said today.
Gen Philip Breedlove, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe and the head of the US European Command, said that President Putin and Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad had “weaponised” migration through a campaign of bombardment against civilian centres.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
If it's 51-49 I'd expect a second referendum in the next Parliament.
No second referendum unless we're absolutely dead sure we can win it.
Vladimir Putin is purposefully creating a refugee crisis in order to “overwhelm” and “break” Europe, Nato’s military commander in Europe said today.
Gen Philip Breedlove, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe and the head of the US European Command, said that President Putin and Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad had “weaponised” migration through a campaign of bombardment against civilian centres.
The issue is that NHS staffers were instructed to ask people to show their identity card - and refused to ask on the grounds that it discriminated against illegal immigrants.
Yes they're idiots.
My point was that it is too late for legal immigrants, they have been stiffed for a huge chunk of cash up front to give them a card, which presumably the muppets on the desk then don't ask for.
An IT consultant of my acquaintance here applied for a visa to the UK, very talented woman, got a job offer easily. So they have to apply for a visa. It's £1000 quid to apply for the visa. Before you get through the door of the visa centre you have to pay your NHS Surcharge. For her and her husband that is £2000. So £3000 to make the application, which can take several weeks to approve. What's the catch ? An IT consultant makes about £800 per month here before tax.
If you hear of any more talented IT consultants happy to come to the UK to work for under £10kpa do let me know, we're buyers at that level.
I think "here" means the Philippines, not the UK - basically they have to save most of their post tax salary for a year in order to be able to afford the application
Precisely. So largely it doesn't happen.
Mean while several dozen illegals run down the channel tunnel every week and get free health care and government aid to present their case for "asylum" and recently reduced hoops to jump through compared to the recently increase hoops to jump through for the legals. It's a disgrace.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
Remember he will be standing down in the next couple of years or so and should Boris succeed him ironically it would be at Boris door the problem would land
But Boris can say "I advised you not to vote that way, I have clean hands". Osborne can say "I am f***ked"
I don't think it would work like that for Boris though it would depend when the issue arose. I am not sure about Osborne anyway and I could see a post referendum cabinet with a move for him to Foreign Secretary with Gove as chancellor
Project Crap Your Pants, Britain has thrown EVERYTHING in the last week. The result is an MOE move to LEAVE, with Gold Standard ICM. And a dead heat. With turnout probably favouring LEAVE.
Cameron will be getting his blood pressure checked. Hah.
This isn't ICM gold standard. The Gold Standard was their phone polls, this is an online poll.
Gold enough to give Cameron the squitters, I'd say. Look at that sample size. And this is after a week when they've basically used all their best ammo. Diminishing returns from now on?
They've not even started yet.
They've got their heavy artillery to deploy in May and June.
Smirking Osborne poses a greater threat to old age, than Brexit.
Smirking Osborne may be a reason to vote Brexit given what is supposedly going to be announced by him in the budget. i can foresee many people voting the opposite of what he wants out of spite.
Anybody know where I can put a deposit down on a cave? The price will rocket if we Leave the demand will be so high.
I'm already collecting sea-shells. They're our new currency, after Brexit. You heard it here first....
From a marketing POV 'washlets' as they are called are a HUUUGE missed opportunity imo. It would be very easy for a determined sales team to get them into all the top hotels and restaurants (for the best bottoms), and once established at the high end they would quite quickly catch on.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
Remember he will be standing down in the next couple of years or so and should Boris succeed him ironically it would be at Boris door the problem would land
But Boris can say "I advised you not to vote that way, I have clean hands". Osborne can say "I am f***ked"
I don't think it would work like that for Boris though it would depend when the issue arose. I am not sure about Osborne anyway and I could see a post referendum cabinet with a move for him to Foreign Secretary with Gove as chancellor
Osborne as Foreign Secretary ? So he can go and smirk and sneer at all our international partners ? It could set our diplomatic clout back to the stone age!
I think the reason why doctors sometimes don't want to have to check eligiblity is that it might show how many non existant patients they are prescribing for...
..and if they h ad to char g e a fiver to see a doctor... the surgeries would empty and loads of doctors would become unemployed.
Is that a bad thing? If a £5 charge drops visits by that much, surely they must be dealing with many frivolous medical issues which dont justify a visit to the doctor.
If you introduce a £5 charge to see doctors then people would put off going to see the doctor for minor ailments when they are at their cheapest to treat and instead will clog up emergency rooms with major problems that are expensive to treat.
Vladimir Putin is purposefully creating a refugee crisis in order to “overwhelm” and “break” Europe, Nato’s military commander in Europe said today.
Gen Philip Breedlove, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe and the head of the US European Command, said that President Putin and Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad had “weaponised” migration through a campaign of bombardment against civilian centres.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
If it's 51-49 I'd expect a second referendum in the next Parliament.
No second referendum unless we're absolutely dead sure we can win it.
IIRC there has been push back from NHS staffers asking for identification / proof of nationality on the grounds it is racist or something, so a lot of it is down to our failures to claim.
But I'm intrigued with the claims by Ireland (unless there is something specific related to the North). I didn't think we had that many retirees in Ireland!
Its not considered remotely racist if they come from outside the EU.
£150 per year as a student, eg £300 for a 2-year visa £200 per year for all other visa and immigration applications, eg £1,000 for a 5-year visa Dependants usually need to pay the same amount as you.
After which you get a nice Biometric identity card you are supposed to show whenever you want to use NHS services.
Imagine how much money £2-3000 is for a talented immigrant from the third world to find. Remember this money has to be paid upfront before they will even look at your visa application.
White Europeans having to provide identification = racist Brown people from outside the EU having to pay for and provide identification = just fine Funny old world.
The issue is that NHS staffers were instructed to ask people to show their identity card - and refused to ask on the grounds that it discriminated against illegal immigrants.
Yes they're idiots.
My point was that it is too late for legal immigrants, they have been stiffed for a huge chunk of cash up front to give them a card, which presumably the muppets on the desk then don't ask for.
An IT consultant of my acquaintance here applied for a visa to the UK, very talented woman, got a job offer easily. So they have to apply for a visa. It's £1000 quid to apply for the visa. Before you get through the door of the visa centre you have to pay your NHS Surcharge. For her and her husband that is £2000. So £3000 to make the application, which can take several weeks to approve. What's the catch ? An IT consultant makes about £800 per month here before tax.
If you hear of any more talented IT consultants happy to come to the UK to work for under £10kpa do let me know, we're buyers at that level.
I think "here" means the Philippines, not the UK - basically they have to save most of their post tax salary for a year in order to be able to afford the application
No second referendum unless we're absolutely dead sure we can win it.
There should be no second referendum under any circumstances. Obviously I want REMAIN to triumph but a defeat is a defeat... and if, after a LEAVE victory there were a second referendum held then I'd vote accordingly to uphold the result of the first one (or, if I couldn't quite stomach that then I'd at least have the decency to stay at home - I can guarantee that much).
Well nobody can accuse PB of being one dimensional community only focused upon talking about betting on politics...This afternoons offering pro / cons of Brexit and washlets...
Vladimir Putin is purposefully creating a refugee crisis in order to “overwhelm” and “break” Europe, Nato’s military commander in Europe said today.
Gen Philip Breedlove, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe and the head of the US European Command, said that President Putin and Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad had “weaponised” migration through a campaign of bombardment against civilian centres.
There was me thinking it was the us, France, the Americans, Turkey, Israel and the Gulf countries that had started and fueled the Syrian civil war. That it was George Soros then encouraging the immigrants to come here. I should have known it was that dastardly Putin all along.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
Remember he will be standing down in the next couple of years or so and should Boris succeed him ironically it would be at Boris door the problem would land
But Boris can say "I advised you not to vote that way, I have clean hands". Osborne can say "I am f***ked"
I don't think it would work like that for Boris though it would depend when the issue arose. I am not sure about Osborne anyway and I could see a post referendum cabinet with a move for him to Foreign Secretary with Gove as chancellor
Osborne as Foreign Secretary ? So he can go and smirk and sneer at all our international partners ? It could set our diplomatic clout back to the stone age!
No second referendum unless we're absolutely dead sure we can win it.
There should be no second referendum under any circumstances. Obviously I want REMAIN to triumph but a defeat is a defeat... and if, after a LEAVE victory there were a second referendum held then I'd vote accordingly to uphold the result of the first one (or, if I couldn't quite stomach that then I'd at least have the decency to stay at home - I can guarantee that much).
Fair enough, Steven. I greatly respect your democratic instincts on this.
However, I think under drastically changed political circumstances you couldn't rule out demand for a second referendum, and for it to be carried.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
If it's 51-49 I'd expect a second referendum in the next Parliament.
No second referendum unless we're absolutely dead sure we can win it.
Technically, June's referendum is the second referendum, first one was in 1975,
A third vote to remain in the EU, and Bruxelles gets to own us.
Vladimir Putin is purposefully creating a refugee crisis in order to “overwhelm” and “break” Europe, Nato’s military commander in Europe said today.
Gen Philip Breedlove, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe and the head of the US European Command, said that President Putin and Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad had “weaponised” migration through a campaign of bombardment against civilian centres.
There was me thinking it was the us, France, the Americans, Turkey, Israel and the Gulf countries that had started and fueled the Syrian civil war. That it was George Soros then encouraging the immigrants to come here. I should have known it was that dastardly Putin all along.
Soros has more influence over goings-on in Syria than Putin??
No second referendum unless we're absolutely dead sure we can win it.
There should be no second referendum under any circumstances. Obviously I want REMAIN to triumph but a defeat is a defeat... and if, after a LEAVE victory there were a second referendum held then I'd vote accordingly to uphold the result of the first one (or, if I couldn't quite stomach that then I'd at least have the decency to stay at home - I can guarantee that much).
If circumstances change, then another referendum is legitimate. E.g. if the UK is forced to take a share of Germany's refugees or if the Eurozone integrates.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
If it's 51-49 I'd expect a second referendum in the next Parliament.
No second referendum unless we're absolutely dead sure we can win it.
Technically, June's referendum is the second referendum, first one was in 1975,
A third vote to remain in the EU, and Bruxelles gets to own us.
No second referendum unless we're absolutely dead sure we can win it.
There should be no second referendum under any circumstances. Obviously I want REMAIN to triumph but a defeat is a defeat... and if, after a LEAVE victory there were a second referendum held then I'd vote accordingly to uphold the result of the first one (or, if I couldn't quite stomach that then I'd at least have the decency to stay at home - I can guarantee that much).
If circumstances change, then another referendum is legitimate. E.g. if the UK is forced to take a share of Germany's refugees or if the Eurozone integrates.
Since circumstances are constantly changing what you're saying is that a second referendum will be legitimate regardless.
No second referendum unless we're absolutely dead sure we can win it.
There should be no second referendum under any circumstances. Obviously I want REMAIN to triumph but a defeat is a defeat... and if, after a LEAVE victory there were a second referendum held then I'd vote accordingly to uphold the result of the first one (or, if I couldn't quite stomach that then I'd at least have the decency to stay at home - I can guarantee that much).
If circumstances change, then another referendum is legitimate. E.g. if the UK is forced to take a share of Germany's refugees or if the Eurozone integrates.
There may be a referendum due to the lock, but it will not be an Leave/Remain referendum.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
Remember he will be standing down in the next couple of years or so and should Boris succeed him ironically it would be at Boris door the problem would land
But Boris can say "I advised you not to vote that way, I have clean hands". Osborne can say "I am f***ked"
I don't think it would work like that for Boris though it would depend when the issue arose. I am not sure about Osborne anyway and I could see a post referendum cabinet with a move for him to Foreign Secretary with Gove as chancellor
Osborne as Foreign Secretary ? So he can go and smirk and sneer at all our international partners ? It could set our diplomatic clout back to the stone age!
Do you like Gove as Chancellor
Gove at least seems to listen to those who make representations to him, and weigh them in the balance without an eye to his future prospects...
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
Hard to see REMAIN getting more than 60%, now. Less than 60% and Osborne is screwed ad BoJo becomes PM. Probs.
OK I gotta go shop. Tomorrow I go to......... biiiiiiiig build up.......
BHUTAN!
Phone polls are more likely to be right than online polls. Not certain but more likely. And turnout issue favours Remain as turnout is likely to be high, meaning lots of weak Remain people turning out.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
If it's 51-49 I'd expect a second referendum in the next Parliament.
No second referendum unless we're absolutely dead sure we can win it.
Technically, June's referendum is the second referendum, first one was in 1975,
A third vote to remain in the EU, and Bruxelles gets to own us.
You mean 1975? That was a vote to join the EC, not the EU!
Fair enough, Steven. I greatly respect your democratic instincts on this.
However, I think under drastically changed political circumstances you couldn't rule out demand for a second referendum, and for it to be carried.
Thank you.
Yes, I'm sure there would be some making such demands. I just wanted to make my own personal position clear on the matter. I'm only one voter though, of course.
Afternoon all. In case it's easier to look at here, here's a link to the full table:............1) Those advocating Leave have no agreement about what Britain's negotiating priorities should be in the event of Brexit. In fact, they can't even gather under a single banner. ....None of those differences suggest to me that we can look for the accelerator pedal to be hit.
Britain, being proportionately more dependent on trade with the EU than the EU is on trade with the UK, is in no position to set down preconditions. Moreover, different EU states have different interests and each has a veto.
Look, this is what happens.
If we Leave companies will continue to buy and sell stuff they want, countries don't buy or sell anything, it is a complete myth. If BMW sell me a car they don't invoice UK who in turn invoice me.
I'd love to know how many people on this site make a living from buying and selling things, I'd guess very few.
I do. What will happen is that cost of doing business in the EU will increase without full access to the single market. It certainly costs us more to business in the US, Taiwan or Korea than it does to do it in the EU.
Nah. If the conferences you put on are good people will pay for them, its called trade. Its why Messi can choose his club and name his price and I can't. Its why we'll continue to buy BMWs and Chablis and people will still queue up outside Buckingham Palace.
We don't need a Eurpean Parliament telling us what we can and can't do.
There are price points. The EU keeps ours lower than would otherwise be the case. I am touched by your advice, but I fear you are wrong.
You don't think the EU keeps the price of Chablis down do you?
Incidentally I'd be surprised if French wine exporters would be too keen on losing their British customers in the event of Leave, and the EU deciding to play hard ball. Bordeaux in particular would not be happy.
I know that we would have to do a lot more work and that would add to our direct and time-related costs, which we would then have to pass on. It would also reduce our ability to do multiple events, as each one would involve more planning. There is a point at which a product becomes commercially unattractive, however good it is.
No second referendum unless we're absolutely dead sure we can win it.
There should be no second referendum under any circumstances. Obviously I want REMAIN to triumph but a defeat is a defeat... and if, after a LEAVE victory there were a second referendum held then I'd vote accordingly to uphold the result of the first one (or, if I couldn't quite stomach that then I'd at least have the decency to stay at home - I can guarantee that much).
If circumstances change, then another referendum is legitimate. E.g. if the UK is forced to take a share of Germany's refugees or if the Eurozone integrates.
Since circumstances are constantly changing what you're saying is that a second referendum will be legitimate regardless.
I mean major changes on hot button issues thay affect UK like immigration or Eurozone balance of power.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
If it's 51-49 I'd expect a second referendum in the next Parliament.
No second referendum unless we're absolutely dead sure we can win it.
...
A third vote to remain in the EU, and Bruxelles gets to own us.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
If it's 51-49 I'd expect a second referendum in the next Parliament.
No second referendum unless we're absolutely dead sure we can win it.
Well he is leading by that much in the phone polls.
And I'm sure your betting position is entirely based exclusively around those phone polls.... No?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
Remember he will be standing down in the next couple of years or so and should Boris succeed him ironically it would be at Boris door the problem would land
But Boris can say "I advised you not to vote that way, I have clean hands". Osborne can say "I am f***ked"
I don't think it would work like that for Boris though it would depend when the issue arose. I am not sure about Osborne anyway and I could see a post referendum cabinet with a move for him to Foreign Secretary with Gove as chancellor
Osborne as Foreign Secretary ? So he can go and smirk and sneer at all our international partners ? It could set our diplomatic clout back to the stone age!
Do you like Gove as Chancellor
Its a better fit for sure.
The Chancellor is meant to be a killjoy, especially a Tory one, it's all about cutting spending and forcing your colleagues into stopping doing things that make them popular. I would be rather suspicious of an overly hospitable Chancellor, I don't like Osborne's brownite economic meddling and social engineering, but he is much better in the Treasury than he would be in the F O. I don't think he would take it, it would be seen as a demotion.
Bernard: The Chancellor is Mr Killjoy. Raising taxes on beer and cigarettes and cutting down public spending goes down badly with the electorate. Hacker: Maybe I don’t want to be Chancellor of the Exchequer. There's no escape in that job. Bernard: Unless you're sent to the Foreign and Commonwealth Office as a punishment. Hacker: Punishment? Bernard: it’s an even worse job. Hacker: No votes in Foreign Affairs? Bernard: Exactly. The FCO loves foreigners, but the British people don't. Hacker: Quite. As far as world politics goes, the Foreign Office is an irrelevance. We've no real power. We're just an American missile base!
No second referendum unless we're absolutely dead sure we can win it.
There should be no second referendum under any circumstances. Obviously I want REMAIN to triumph but a defeat is a defeat... and if, after a LEAVE victory there were a second referendum held then I'd vote accordingly to uphold the result of the first one (or, if I couldn't quite stomach that then I'd at least have the decency to stay at home - I can guarantee that much).
If circumstances change, then another referendum is legitimate. E.g. if the UK is forced to take a share of Germany's refugees or if the Eurozone integrates.
There may be a referendum due to the lock, but it will not be an Leave/Remain referendum.
Lock does not cover Eurozone federalisation (see fiscal compact treaty). Any Eurosceptic government worth its salt must change this.
Conflicting thoughts on the opinion polls right now. * Part of me says that people outside the bubble have not fully engaged with the referendum yet and that this is likely to favour Leave. Thus, maybe Leave needs to be a good way ahead now if it is to have a chance of winning in June. * But another part says that a lot of people will never engage and that turnout will be low - something that will heavily favour Leave. On balance, I reckon that the second is a stronger factor than the first, which is why I was one of the few to have Leave down as the winner in the PB survey.
No second referendum unless we're absolutely dead sure we can win it.
There should be no second referendum under any circumstances. Obviously I want REMAIN to triumph but a defeat is a defeat... and if, after a LEAVE victory there were a second referendum held then I'd vote accordingly to uphold the result of the first one (or, if I couldn't quite stomach that then I'd at least have the decency to stay at home - I can guarantee that much).
If circumstances change, then another referendum is legitimate. E.g. if the UK is forced to take a share of Germany's refugees or if the Eurozone integrates.
There may be a referendum due to the lock, but it will not be an Leave/Remain referendum.
Lock does not cover Eurozone federalisation (see fiscal compact treaty). Any Eurosceptic government worth its salt must change this.
Lock was carefully designed not to apply to anything that matters
Not accession treaties or anything attached to them Not powers given up as the result of orders made in council Not extensions of existing powers Not return of powers held back through an opt-out and in anycase have to be certified by the minister concerned as being a significant transfer of power.
Comments
Yes they're idiots.
My point was that it is too late for legal immigrants, they have been stiffed for a huge chunk of cash up front to give them a card, which presumably the muppets on the desk then don't ask for.
An IT consultant of my acquaintance here applied for a visa to the UK, very talented woman, got a job offer easily. So they have to apply for a visa. It's £1000 quid to apply for the visa. Before you get through the door of the visa centre you have to pay your NHS Surcharge. For her and her husband that is £2000. So £3000 to make the application, which can take several weeks to approve. What's the catch ? An IT consultant makes about £800 per month here before tax.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-1679780/New-state-pension-age-retire.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/12179375/Work-until-youre-75-or-even-81-under-Government-review-of-state-pension-age.html
Smirking Osborne poses a greater threat to old age, than Brexit.
Worse Greece is going to enter another recession. I really don't see many tourists heading there from now on....
Cameron's lucky, if it continues, Leave will still be disorganised, and there's no migrant crisis.
I think what has freaked him is the number of senior Tories backing Leave.
I had a chat with someone from CCHQ before Christmas, they were expecting Grayling and IDS, and about 80 MPs.
That recent Yougov article said that the ratio of 18-24 to 65+ should be 3:1. With this ICM it is just under a 2:1 ratio.
WIth this survey 18-24 had Remain 53% LEAVE 20%. The 65+ are 31% Remain 56% Leave.
However, the anecdotal evidence from my social circle (very AB, graduate, post-graduate, professional and in London and the South-East) is the other way and they're all going all gaylord ponceyboots with the scaremongering.
Perhaps the rest of the country are made of sterner stuff.
Be LEAVE!
In Arkansas, Trump won among those who do NOT feel betrayed by republicans, Cruz won those who did. CNN exits
Hmm?!
They need to be ready to shoot it down with a mini-gun when it comes.
Also told my folks, who weren't fooled.
This wasn't something that happened on the spur of the moment.
Calais?
Macedonia?
#OutOfTouch
My point was that it is too late for legal immigrants, they have been stiffed for a huge chunk of cash up front to give them a card, which presumably the muppets on the desk then don't ask for.
An IT consultant of my acquaintance here applied for a visa to the UK, very talented woman, got a job offer easily. So they have to apply for a visa. It's £1000 quid to apply for the visa. Before you get through the door of the visa centre you have to pay your NHS Surcharge. For her and her husband that is £2000. So £3000 to make the application, which can take several weeks to approve. What's the catch ? An IT consultant makes about £800 per month here before tax.
If you hear of any more talented IT consultants happy to come to the UK to work for under £10kpa do let me know, we're buyers at that level.
https://twitter.com/outandprouduk
Is a Conservative PM actually going to be dim enough to stand up and say that he wouldn't protect pensions with that money?
I still expect Leave to lose, but it could yet be insanely close.... If it is 51-49, then Cameron owns every EU-woe that comes down the line from July. "I only voted to stay because Cameron assured me it was the best thing to do for Britain. Now look at us! The French taking our bloody pension pots*..."
*by way of example, rather than prediction.
I fully expect not to get a meaningful state pension and view any I do ultimately get as a bonus.
This explains why.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/31/apathy-and-the-older-voters-might-be-the-key-for-out-winning-the-referendum/
Death, etc.
"Tory PM threatens pensioners"
Not sure you read that quite right.
Here in the Philippines they make under £10K pa which is damn good money here. It is also next to impossible to borrow money here except on the informal market. That does make fronting £3k for your visa application a touch difficult. More to the point it is hideously unfair if we make people do that, and then don't check so the illegals that have paid nothing get the same treatment that these people have paid 4 months salary to obtain.
Osborne can say "I am f***ked"
I think "here" means the Philippines, not the UK - basically they have to save most of their post tax salary for a year in order to be able to afford the application
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3473141/Knife-fight-Jungle-Terrifying-moment-migrant-flees-blade-wielding-attacker-Calais-governor-reveals-British-anarchists-fuelling-violence-camp.html
It's really quite astonishing what you can blame Russia for these days.
Mean while several dozen illegals run down the channel tunnel every week and get free health care and government aid to present their case for "asylum" and recently reduced hoops to jump through compared to the recently increase hoops to jump through for the legals. It's a disgrace.
Expect Stuart Rose's stunning admission today that wages would rise after #Brexit to feature in video attack ads over and over again.
Like deliberately bombing civilians. Crazy to suggest they are doing that with their bombing of civilian areas with non-precision munitions.
Ah. Thank you. That makes sense.
General Strangelove as he is more often known as.
There was me thinking it was the us, France, the Americans, Turkey, Israel and the Gulf countries that had started and fueled the Syrian civil war. That it was George Soros then encouraging the immigrants to come here. I should have known it was that dastardly Putin all along.
However, I think under drastically changed political circumstances you couldn't rule out demand for a second referendum, and for it to be carried.
A third vote to remain in the EU, and Bruxelles gets to own us.
There was me thinking it was the us, France, the Americans, Turkey, Israel and the Gulf countries that had started and fueled the Syrian civil war. That it was George Soros then encouraging the immigrants to come here. I should have known it was that dastardly Putin all along.
Soros has more influence over goings-on in Syria than Putin??
Truly hysterical price.
Believe in BRITAIN! Be LEAVE!
Yes, I'm sure there would be some making such demands. I just wanted to make my own personal position clear on the matter. I'm only one voter though, of course.
The Chancellor is meant to be a killjoy, especially a Tory one, it's all about cutting spending and forcing your colleagues into stopping doing things that make them popular. I would be rather suspicious of an overly hospitable Chancellor, I don't like Osborne's brownite economic meddling and social engineering, but he is much better in the Treasury than he would be in the F O. I don't think he would take it, it would be seen as a demotion.
Bernard: The Chancellor is Mr Killjoy. Raising taxes on beer and cigarettes and cutting down public spending goes down badly with the electorate.
Hacker: Maybe I don’t want to be Chancellor of the Exchequer. There's no escape in that job.
Bernard: Unless you're sent to the Foreign and Commonwealth Office as a punishment.
Hacker: Punishment?
Bernard: it’s an even worse job.
Hacker: No votes in Foreign Affairs?
Bernard: Exactly. The FCO loves foreigners, but the British people don't.
Hacker: Quite. As far as world politics goes, the Foreign Office is an irrelevance. We've no real power. We're just an American missile base!
Oh dear.
Will we have a thread header on this gaffe, the latest of quite a few already?
'Remain campaign in disarray' etc.?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_European_Union_membership_referendum,_1994
* Part of me says that people outside the bubble have not fully engaged with the referendum yet and that this is likely to favour Leave. Thus, maybe Leave needs to be a good way ahead now if it is to have a chance of winning in June.
* But another part says that a lot of people will never engage and that turnout will be low - something that will heavily favour Leave.
On balance, I reckon that the second is a stronger factor than the first, which is why I was one of the few to have Leave down as the winner in the PB survey.
Just gutted there's no Bush around anymore for me to tuck into.
Not accession treaties or anything attached to them
Not powers given up as the result of orders made in council
Not extensions of existing powers
Not return of powers held back through an opt-out
and in anycase have to be certified by the minister concerned as being a significant transfer of power.
It's a sham. (see European Arrest Warrant)